Friday, January 4, 2013

Northwestern Recap & Iowa Preview


Happy New Year faithful readers, I hope the holiday season treated you well. I took a much needed break from work and an unintentional break from blogging.  Now that the bowls are over for the B1G, it is time to fully shift the focus to the nation’s best basketball conference.  Michigan opened its championship defense last night in Evanston against the depleted Northwestern Wildcats, and they came away with a lopsided 94-66 victory. 

I have to be honest, before the game started I thought the Wolverines would come away with a 12-15 point win in a game where the outcome was never much in question.  Michigan is at the top of the food chain in the NCAA basketball food pyramid this season, but sometimes they like to just play with their food and give them hope for life a little too long.  This wasn’t the case last night as the outcome was decided before the first media timeout.  The Wolverines came out with the most intensity that I have seen this year, and also it helped that they didn’t miss for most of the half. Northwestern has absolutely no answer for Trey Burke, who has been able to score at will against all 14 opponents so far this year. After Bill Carmody changed the defensive focus to all eyes on number 3, Burke showed the 2nd facet of being the best point guard in the country, his passing skills. The sophomore then got the rest of the Michigan rotation involved.  By the end of the game, every starter was in double figures and Michigan finished off their most dominant road victory in recent memory.

I was very impressed with the offensive efficiency, again.  While this Wolverine team might not score as much as Indiana, they are clearly more efficient at this point in the season.  Last night, Michigan scored 1.33 points per possession which is unheard of.  The scary thing is that it was only the 2nd best outing of the season.  It is really fun to watch this year’s team because there are so many more options besides Trey Burke. Sure, Burke is the key to everything, but if you focus all of your attention on number 3 he will find 2 guaranteed NBA players, the best jump shooter in the country, and one of the best centers in the Big Ten.  Oh I forgot, that is just the starting rotation. 

The defense definitely looked better in the first 10 minutes of the ball game, and having Tim Hardaway back definitely helps.  Once the game was in the bag, the defensive effort became a little lazy.  It will be very interesting to see this Michigan team play an opponent that forces a full 40 minutes of effort on both ends.  The Wolverines are one of the most athletic teams in the country, so there is no reason why they shouldn’t be able to put the clamps down on defense.

Michigan welcomes Iowa to Crisler for the first home conference game of the season.  The Hawkeyes are fresh off a disappointing loss to Indiana at home.  Just seeing the box score you might think Iowa should have had a moral victory, but watching the game told a different story.  Iowa let a great opportunity for a huge win slip through their fingers, and for a team that will be on the bubble for most of the season Monday’s loss will be disappointing.  The schedule doesn’t get any easier to get their first conference win of the season.

Iowa is still a program in process.  Many compare them to a John Beilein Michigan team from season’s past.  They run a unique, complex offensive system and have under-rated scrappy players with chips on their shoulders. The Hawkeyes can be a dangerous team.  Iowa plays at a quick pace and likes to put pressure on their opponent’s transition defense.  They are led by Detroit native, Roy Devin-Marble, and he is coming off one of his worst games in an Iowa uniform.  The high tempo offense works extremely well if you are working with superior athletes, but in the Hawkeye’s case it can lead to many unforced turnovers.  A problem that could be deadly against the efficient Wolverines. One way Iowa counteracts those problems is at the 3 point line.  If the Hawkeyes get into a rhythm they can make 12+ shots from long range.  The defensive side of the ball is still lagging behind the offense though.  Iowa is one of the worst fundamentally sound defenses in the conference, which usually will spell disaster on the road.  The Hawkeyes want to force turnovers to start the fast break, but the aggressive style has a tendency to lead to over-pursuit, fouls, and offensive rebounds.

It will be important for Michigan to play better perimeter defense to limit 3 point attempts, and outside of Marble the Hawkeyes struggle at dribble penetration.  I fully expect the Wolverines to dominate the glass in this game as Indiana did against Iowa.  On the offensive end, Michigan presents mismatches at nearly every position.  I would imagine that the Hawkeye’s strategy will be to force the ball out of Burke’s hands.  Look for Stauskas to have a bounce back game, and for Robinson to be more assertive on offense.  On paper Michigan is the considerable favorite, and it will be interesting to see how Iowa bounces back on the road. 

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