As you might have recognized, I have stopped doing
basketball previews to just focus on the post-game recaps. But, I cannot contain my excitement for the upcoming
showdown with Indiana. It is the most
hyped Michigan basketball game in my memory, and there are so many interesting
topics to discuss. Saturday’s game is
one that matches the nation’s two best offenses, 2 national player of the year
candidates, and likely 6 players that could be selected in this year’s NBA
draft. I only wish I could be a part of
each coaching staff’s film and game planning session.
Let’s start on the Indiana sideline. The Hoosiers have been using a starting
lineup of Yogi Ferrell, Jordan Hulls, Victor Oladipo, Christian Watford, and
Cody Zeller. It has been pretty successful
on the offensive end; for example they scored 1.47 ppp last night against
Purdue which, frankly, is unbelievable.
However, this lineup could present some matchup issues with the talented
Wolverines. Tom Crean has to be thinking
the best way to slow down Michigan is to limit Trey Burke’s impact. Trey is at his best when he can break down a
defense off the dribble, get into the lane and finish at the rim, kick out to
an open shooter, or hit a back cutter for a layup. The Wolverine offense runs through Trey, so
slowing him down is critical to limiting their efficiency. The easy solution here for Indiana is to put
the 6’5” Oladipo on Burke. He is by far
the Hoosier’s best on ball defender, and he would be able to use his length and
quickness to really affect Trey. By
making this decision it leaves two 6’0” guards (Ferrell and Hulls) to try to
match up with two 6’6”+ wing type players (Stauskas and Hardaway). This spells disaster for the Hoosiers. From what I have seen from Crean so far this
season is that he is pretty stubborn to change his lineups. If this is the case, then freshman point
guard Yogi Ferrell will be tasked to stay in front of Trey Burke. While the freshman is improving as an on ball
defender, the player of the year favorite is stronger, quicker, and
smarter. Jordan Hulls would then be
responsible for Nik Stauskas. Hulls is
one of the Hoosiers weak spots on the defensive end, and this matchup is a big
Michigan advantage. Stauskas should be
able to shoot over the top of the much shorter player, so Hulls only play is to
run at the shooter to move him off the three point line. The sharp shooting freshman has shown he is
more than comfortable driving the ball to the basket. Oladipo would be tasked with Hardaway. This is an advantage for Indiana, however the
Indiana leader gets a lot of his steals by playing help defense to stop
penetration. This could leave Hardaway
open for a few jump shots, and if he is able to knock down a few early then the
Hoosiers will be dealing with another All-American type player. Christian Watford matched up against Glen
Robinson III is another matchup that is very intriguing. Watford is not as athletic as GRIII, but has
an ability to create his own shot. I
think both teams will have the advantage on the offensive end. Finally, the center position will likely see
Horford against Zeller. The Indiana
player of the year candidate has shown a tendency to struggle against strong
post players, but I don’t think Jon Horford really fits that mold. The Michigan center will likely not demand
enough attention and will allow Zeller to be a major shot blocking threat in
the paint. Indiana could also choose to
drop back into a 2-3 zone, but Michigan will likely have 4 efficient three
point shooters on the court at any time.
This zone strategy should blow up in Tom Crean’s face, unless the
Wolverines have a terrible shooting night.
Switching over to the maize and blue, Michigan’s lineup will
not change. The center is the only
questioned position. If Jordan Morgan is
able to play effectively, then we will again take over in the middle. However, it seems likely that Jon Horford
will get the start again. The old AAU
rivals (Burke & Ferrell) will be matched up against each other. While Yogi is starting to break out of his
shooting slump lately, he is still a pass first point guard. In all of their previous matchups Burke had
the upper hand, and I think that will continue on Saturday. The Canadien sniper, or Molson Ice, will
manned up against Jordan Hulls. This
will be a tough matchup for the freshman.
Even though Hulls is only 6’0” he is a crafty scorer with a wicked quick
release. Stauskas will have to stay in
his back pocket and try to force him off the 3 point line where is much less
efficient. Michigan’s best on ball
defender (Hardaway) will be matched against Oladipo, who is coming off 3 games
averaging close to 20 points. This is
the matchup to look at while Michigan is on defense. If Oladipo gets into a rhythm and becomes
more aggressive on offense, the Wolverines will be in trouble. Ideally Hardaway will be able to lock down
the athletic wing with his length and keep him around 15 points. The biggest part of this pairing will be how
well Hardaway can keep Oladipo off of the offensive glass. He is their second best offensive rebounder,
and with Zeller having an advantage down low the rest of the Wolverine line up
will have to lock down any rebound chances.
Little Dog, Glen Robinson III, also known as Light Rob, will have his
hands full with Christian Watford. If
the senior comes out of the gates demanding the ball in the mid-post and
exerting himself on the offensive end, Indiana will be very tough to beat. One thing to look for with this matchup is
Watford has had the tendency to disappear from the offensive game plan this
season. If this happens again, GRIII
should be able to help on Zeller. This leaves us with Cody Zeller. He leads the Hoosiers in scoring and
rebounding. A combination of Horford and
McGary will be tasked to control the big man.
This is where Michigan will miss Jordan Morgan, if only because another body
for 5 more fouls. The key to slowing down Zeller is to keep him out of the
transition game where he is clearly more lethal. Zeller is one of the most athletic centers in
the country, so hedging on screens and recovering will become extremely
important in this game. Michigan should be alright if Zeller gets his 20
points, but the Wolverines must limit his offensive rebounds. It will a minor victory if Zeller scores most
of his points from post entries and not 2nd chance points.
This game should be one of the best regular season matchups
of the season. While Oladipo is an
outstanding individual defender, Indiana as a team is average. Unless Michigan has just an awful shooting
night or uncharacteristic unforced turnovers, the Wolverines should be able to
hover around their offensive efficiency average (1.15-1.20ppp). Since Indiana plays at a very high tempo, and
Michigan is not scared of getting out in transition when possible, this game
will likely have 67-70 possessions. If Michigan
plays to its normal output, it means the Wolverines should be looking to score
around 80 points. Defensively, the maize and blue should be targeting to keep
Indiana around 75 points or 1.10 ppp. The countdown to Saturday night has
begun!
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