After a third of the season recap

The Tigers have played 54 games already this season which means they are exactly a third of the way through the 2012 campaign.  Detroit is sporting the impressive 25-29 record, which is good for third place in the AL Central.  Let’s be honest, this is a lot different than what was expected coming into the season.  While the Tigers do have time to turn this disappointment around and make the playoffs, they need to start playing better sooner rather than later.  Just think, if Detroit is to have the same record as they did last year they will have to go 70-38 from here out which would be a better winning percentage than the best record in baseball currently.  So why not take a look at what has happened so far this season to make it such a disappointment. 

Offense

The Tigers have been the definition of inconsistent with the bats this season.  Everyone expected Delmon, Boesch, Avila, Peralta, and Raburn to continue their success from the 2011 season, and guess what they simply have not.  Delmon Young is sporting a .711 OPS, Boesch .622, and Peralta a .691.  That is brutal.  In case that does not make sense, let me throw another stat from the Tigers normal 5,6,7 hitters out there.  They have combined to strikeout 109 times, and have walked a whopping 34 times.  Raburn was batting .150 and then decided to watch 3 different strike 3’s in Boston and was demoted to AAA again.  This is the same guy that led the entire team in batting average post All-Star game in 2011.  Yes, his average was higher than the batting champ (Cabrera) and VMart.  Avila has been able to draw some walks so far this year, but is not hitting the ball with any sort of consistency right now.  It probably also doesn’t help that he is a bit banged up right now. 

I am not going to blame this season’s deficiencies on injuries since every team has them and Detroit should have a good enough farm system and 25 man roster to cover up (over the short term) injuries to anyone besides Cabrera, Fielder, and JV.  Just when it seemed the offense was coming around, Austin got injured and has been out for 18 games now.  He is currently hitting .344 from the lead off spot.  Dirks was batting over .400 in the 2 hole during his limited at bats, and now he has been placed on the 15 day DL.  They have been replaced by Berry who has provided a major spark in his time with the big club, but will never be close to a .300 hitter let alone .344,  The 2 hole has been a joke since Dirks has gone done.  So now, with the bottom 5 in the lineup not contributing still, the 2 hole is an automatic out as well. 

The Tigers are 15-3 on the season when they score 5 runs or more, and they have scored 134 runs in these 18 games.  In the outings they have scored 4 or less runs, they are 10-26 and have scored a total of 99 runs in those 36 games.  The Tigers have scored a majority of their runs in a third of the games so far this season.  This begs the question, will the offense ever turn it around this season?  Also, if they do, will it be too late?

I am really hoping Austin and Dirks come back fully healthy soon and can be re-inserted to the top of the lineup.  However, I also think that Berry has proved his worth to this Tiger’s team and should stay in the majors for the rest of the season.  Berry should be moved over to right field, and Boesch should be placed on the bench.  Then the question is what to do with the DH position right now.  Delmon and Boesch have been the same hitter so far this season, just one from the right side and the other a lefty.  Both swing at anything from chin to dirt, have a high strike out rate with an incredibly low walk rate, and can add a touch of power if they make contact.  The Tigers would then have the option to try and trade Delmon
(or release him) and make Boesch the full time DH, or platoon these guys in that role.  I also think that Peralta should be given a chance in the 5 hole for a bit because even if he is having a disappointing year so far, he draws a ton more walks than Delmon.  Putting Jhonny there would keep the off-setting hitters (right, left, right, etc). Also, by leaving Berry in the lineup it gives the bottom of the order a little boost of energy.  No matter what Leyland decides to do with the lineup, the bottom line is that the offense has to get better and begin to lessen the pressure on the starting pitchers and bullpen. 

Starting Pitching

The starters really haven’t been the main issue so far this season.  Verlander is getting some of the least amount of run support from his offense and is somehow still 5-4 after 2 bad outings. I would imagine JV is getting a little frustrated, but wouldn’t it be nice if he had a few CC Sabathia starts where the offense bails him out and JV can put it in cruise control?  As bad as he pitched on Sunday against the Yankees, he only gave up 5 runs, and against the useless pitcher that is Phil Hughes, the offense should have been able to give JV the no-decision. Scherzer and Porcello have been average to good more than they have been bad, which is seeming like all we can expect from them in their careers. Smyly has been a nice surprise, but has strung together 4 bad starts in a row and needs a good outing tonight to begin straightening things out.  Then there is Fister, who most people expected him to continue his second half of 2011.  People, he was the best pitcher in baseball last year after being traded to the Tigers.  He outpitched Verlander during that time.  This was not going to be able to continue.  Then in his first start he injured his side and it has been nagging him all season so far.  I have no doubts that he will come back and be our number 2 starter hands down if he can get healthy.  I am not sure what more we can get from the starters right now, especially without Fister.

Bullpen pitchers

Overall this group has been very disappointing.  Eight relievers have earned 10 losses.  Did you get that? Almost a third of the losses have come from the bullpen.  On top of that, Valverde now is sporting a 3-1 record as a closer.  Benoit and Valverde both had career seasons last year, and should not have been expected to continue their complete dominance.  Benoit has been turning things around, until he got some arm soreness in his last outing.  Valverde is just looking awful so far this year.  He cannot command his fastball, and has all but removed his split finger pitch from his arsenal. When Benoit is healthy again, will Leyland make the switch to him to be the closer?  Below has been a nice surprise so far.  Villareal looked terrible in his first stint with the team, but has come back and looked dominant at times.  If he can locate his fastball for strikes, this kid could be the best pitcher in the pen for the Tigers.  Marte has added depth to the pen since coming back from the DL, and most people don’t remember but he won a job out of spring training and then got injured just before opening day.  Then there is Dotel, who started as the best pitcher in the bullpen, and recently has been struggling to locate pitches and has a tendency to give up the big fly.  Also, the Tigers are still expecting Al Albequerque to come back from injury after the All-Star game.  This group of guys will need to begin to pitch more consistently if this team is going to start closing the gap with the White Sox.

Defense

Last and certainly least.  The big question with adding Prince Fielder was going to be the defense and with Miguel moving back to third base.  Well, the defense has been worse than expected in my book.  The Tigers have a .670 defensive efficiency good for dead last in the AL.  The Tigers have a roster full of DH’s.  Somehow Miguel has been the least of the concerns in the field right now.  Prince is having his worst fielding year of his career, and I personally think he is the worst defensive first baggers in the entire league.  2^nd base has been a joke for most the season so far.  Peralta seems to have taken a huge step in the wrong direction in the field.  How many times has a ground ball been hit to the middle of the field and a double play has not been turned.  Whether it is Peralta bobbling the ball, taking too much time tossing to 2^nd base, covering 2^nd too late, or even taking too long to make the exchange from glove to right hand to throw to first base. Then moving out to the outfield, Delmon wouldn’t be able to cover enough ground to play left field on a little league outfield.  Analysts love anointing players as 5 tool players.  This means they can hit for average, hit for power, run, field, and throw.  Delmon Young is a successful half tool player (he can hit for power when he doesn’t strike out). I also used to think Brennan was a plus defender, but have quickly realized he is a butcher out in right field.  The scary part of this area of the game is that I don’t think they can improve over what they have been doing so far this season.  I don’t think they are slumping in the field, I just think they are simply that bad. The saving grace for this though is if the offense can score 5+ runs per game, these defensive lapses can be overlooked since the wins will start to pile up.

Heading into the middle third of the season, the Tigers will need to get the bottom of the lineup rolling with the bats.  They cannot wait much longer to start playing good baseball.  It will help a lot if Austin, Dirks, and Avila can come back from injuries soon.  I personally think that Brennan having success is a big part of this team’s success, and he just doesn’t look comfortable in the batter’s box right now.  I think sending him down to AAA or sitting him for a few games could really benefit the youngster.  Detroit has a pretty weak next 18 games where they should be able to  get in a bit of a winning streak (but the entire month of May was against lesser competition and they finished under .500).  I think it will be safe to count Detroit out if their division deficit grows to double digits by the end of this month, but if they can stay behind Chicago by 4-5 games then anything can happen.