Wednesday, April 18, 2012

The Verlander Project

I think Justin Verlander is still pitching to the Royals… only 38 hours after he started.  When he finally recorded the last out of Monday’s game against Kansas City, he had thrown 131 pitches.  He finally got his first win of the season after his 3rd quality start, but I am not sure of the costs it took to get it. 

While watching the game on Monday, I knew that the best pitcher in the game was again locked in and dominating the Royals.  After giving up a lame first inning run, he locked in and made the Royals look pretty stupid for most of their at bats.  Then in the bottom of the 8th inning, he started getting hit pretty hard.  He was not fooling the hitters anymore, and it looked like they were actually getting comfortable against our ace.  I applauded when he finished the inning, expecting to see the Big Potato to close out the game.  I guess Leyland saw something different. 

With 102 pitches already, Verlander took the mound for the 9th in his second straight outing.  At first I questioned this move immediately.  I didn’t understand the benefit of letting JV throw another pressure inning.  I know he struggled in his last outing in the 9th, and maybe Marlbro Man wanted him to be able to finish this game.  But mid-April, in his third start, is not the time to push JV to the max.  Justin has had multiple complete games including 2 no-hitters, he knows how to close out a game.  He is mentally tough.  After he blew the game in his last start, he came back and shut down the Royals for 8 innings.  That is a good start.  There is no need to pull another inning out of him.  Yes he can handle it because he is a freak of nature and can carry a bigger workload than any other pitcher right now.  But I don’t get the mindset.  Monday was not the middle of a September division race, it was not a playoff game, it was not a no-hitter bid.  While JV will immediately tell you that he was barely tired at the end of the game, I don’t get the point of even pushing that limit.  I would rather have those last 29 pitches he threw in the 9th in October.  Verlander doesn’t need to prove anything to anyone.  He is the best pitcher in baseball, period.  He has had bad luck to start the season, but it is not time to push the panic button and let him go the distance the rest of the season.  I understand that Verlander wanted to go back out there in the 9th, and why wouldn’t he?  He is a competitor.  I would be worried if he didn’t want to get the complete game in the books.  But at some point the manager needs to see what is the best for the team (and the future of the team).  Verlander threw 261 innings last season, and his pitch count was 100+ more than the next closest starting pitcher.  The goal this season was to reduce his innings back down to 230-240, to hopefully keep him more fresh for the post season.  Well so far to start the year, this goal has been put on the back burner.  He is currently on pace to go over 300 innings.

Then on the other hand, I know Valverde is struggling to start this season.  But has Leyland already lost confidence in him? Valverde has really never been a lock down dominant closer.  49/49 saves last year had some luck involved, and they weren’t always pretty 1-2-3 innings. The numbers suggest that is the case, but as Detroit fans we should know better.  He will give us heart problems occasionally, he will make us angry at times, but the dude is getting paid a lot of money to finish games for this team.  The Royals had the bottom of the order coming up, they were not going to win this game.  I would trust a rested Valverde in that situation more than an overthrowing starter (even if that starter happens to be JV).  Pape Grande saved 13 of JV’s 24 wins last season, at some point Leyland is going to have to let him try again. 

The JV saga has been very interesting so far to start the season.  He has been locked in since opening day, and hasn’t let up through 3 starts.  If Valverde hadn’t blown the save on opening day, nobody would have thought twice about pulling JV after 8.  It was the first game of the season, his pitch count was getting high, and we had a closer that hadn’t blown a save in his last 51 chances.  Then against Tampa Bay, the pitch count was extremely low (81 after 8 innings).  Leyland did the right thing in letting him go out there and get the complete game win.  I disagree with letting him so long though, after 2 runners got on base I would have gone to Valverde just so Verlander wouldn’t have gotten the loss.  Then Monday night, I don’t understand the mindset at all.  I would have let Valverde do his job, but at least we got the win and the Tigers are still in first place. 

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