Thursday, June 6, 2013

Michigan Basketball: 2014 Recruiting Needs


I am back after almost a 2 month break from blogging.  It has been hard for me to set aside time to break down every Tigers series like last year, so I have decided to just skip it altogether.  I am sure I will have a baseball update at some point in the near future, but I want to focus on the 2014 basketball recruiting scene for the Michigan Wolverines.  John Beilein and company are coming off the most successful season in nearly 2 decades, but the effects of the deep tournament run will likely not be felt until the 2015 recruiting class.  However, it is still going to be extremely important for the coaching staff to continue to bring in top notch talent to keep Michigan in the top tier of the B1G. At this point in basketball recruiting most of the top talent already have a developed relationship with a few coaching staffs that will make up their top 5 schools.  But we can continue to see the ability of the Wolverine coaching staff to evaluate talent before most, and be the first staff recruiting very specific kids to fit the Michigan system. 

After the upcoming season the Maize and Blue can plan on Jordan Morgan coming off the roster, and likely Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary entering the NBA draft. That will leave 8 scholarship players on the roster or 5 available slots for 2014 recruits. The Wolverines have already secured 2 commitments in this class: Ricky Doyle and Austin Hatch.  Ricky Doyle is a 6’9” skilled big man that will likely translate to a center for John Beilein.  He is a unique recruit to evaluate, though, because he is one of a few that do not play AAU basketball.  From what I understand, Ricky will enter college with a more defined set of offensive skills than Jordan Morgan.  He has a good face up game, and an improving array of back to the basket moves.  However, he will not be the next Mitch McGary.  At this point, I would guess that his ceiling is somewhere around Honorable Mention All-B1G, depending on the continued success of the conference.  Most of you already know the story of Austin Hatch.  At this point it looks like he will not be able to play basketball on the B1G stage, if at all, but John Beilein has stated that there will be a scholarship to the university awaiting Austin.  It is unclear if this scholarship will be taken out of the allotted 13 for basketball, or if he will be allowed to take a medical hardship immediately as a freshman.  For the time being I will keep Austin as part of the 13 available slots for Team 98.  This leaves 3 open scholarships for the coaching staff to play with.

Needs:
1.       Shooting Guard.  With Michigan losing Tim Hardaway a year early, they will be forced to play off guard by committee next season.  Yes, Nik Stauskas and Caris LeVert can play the two, but are likely more of wing players.  Incoming freshman, Zak Irvin, could also fill that role, but I think he is more of a college 3 as well.  The Wolverines are pursuing this position the hardest right now, and have two elite players interested.  Devin Booker is the prototypical combo guard, he is 6’4”-6’5” and can score with anyone.  I personally think he will be a little more college ready than even Gary Harris was last year, and you can see how effective he was for the Spartans. Booker is the perfect example of this coaching staff’s evaluation abilities.  Devin came to the Michigan camp as an unheard of sophomore, and was one of the best players on the floor, regardless of class.  Since then his stock continues to rise, and now he is a consensus 5 star player. The other projected shooting guard is 6’5” Trevon Blueitt.  His recruitment was a little under the radar heading into the summer AAU circuit, but now is blowing up.  Trevon is another scoring machine, and is actually one of the scoring leaders in his AAU division.  It will be very important for Coach Beilein to secure a commitment from a shooting guard, and preferably one of these two players.

2.       Stretch Power Forward.  Do you remember the offensive mismatches Michigan exploited when Evan Smotrycz was on the floor and knocking down shots?  Now imagine an NBA-level player in that position.  The Wolverine coaching staff has been recruiting these type of players for their entire time in Ann Arbor, but have yet to land an elite, true stretch 4.  Yes, Glenn Robinson III is elite, but he is more of a wing player that moved down a spot so Michigan could start the best 5 players. Also, since Ricky Doyle will be a little undersized as a B1G center, it would be really nice to put a long, athletic player next to him in the post.  Having an offensive weapon at this position will take the pressure off of the guards and Doyle.  At this point, the Wolverines are hard after 6’9” Kevon Looney.  While he isn’t as explosive as GRIII, he is a lot longer and the definition of a stretch 4.  Looney is another consensus 5 star player that Michigan has been recruiting since his freshman year.  At this point, securing a commitment from Kevon seems like a long shot, but you have to like Michigan’s selling points (National Championship game, developing NBA talent, stretch 4’s thriving in a Beilein-coached offense).

3.       Wing. Yes, I did just write that the Wolverines have an abundance of college wing players, but outside of Kentucky how many teams have too many athletic 6’7”-ish players?  Also, at this point I think the coaching staff is not planning on having Irvin for 4 years, and Stauskas and LeVert will be upperclassmen.  Michigan’s main target is consensus 4 star, 6’6” Kameron Chatman.  He just visited Ann Arbor for the camp, and received his offer last weekend.  Chatman is a smooth lefty that is solid in most areas.  While he is not an elite scorer like the two shooting guard prospects, he has an above average mid-range and out game.  One of the things I really like about Chatman is his length.  It is something that you cannot teach, and would make varying zone defenses really intriguing.  The last offer on Michigan’s board at the moment is combo forward 6’7” Vincent Edwards.  He is a true power forward, but in a wings body.  If you followed high school basketball last year, he reminds me of Vincent Hunter.  At this point Edwards is a poor man’s version of Brandon Dawson, it is a very similar skill set but without the elite explosion.  Hunter is one of those players that coaches would love to have on their team, but he cannot be the focal point of a recruiting class.  He is a tough, hard-nosed guy that would be an immediate impact defender and rebounder.  Think Michigan could have used something like that this year?

If I am going to assume that Austin Hatch still uses one of the basketball scholarships, then I think the coaching staff will take two more players in the 2014 class and save the final one for 2015.  If that is not the case, then I can see Michigan taking a third player, but likely one that is not listed above.  Ideally the Wolverines would conclude with Devin Booker and Kevon Looney, but the staff would love either shooting guard and Chatman.  Even though the full effect from the National Championship game appearance won’t likely be felt until the 2015 class, the Michigan coaching staff is on pace to secure another top tier recruiting class.

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