Ok, lets jump back into some analysis, shall we?
On paper, Saban's fighting elephants have a massive advantage over Hoke's Heroes. But, luckily for us Michiganders, the game is not played on paper. I want to take a look at each aspect of the game and predict who will have the advantage during the 60 minutes on gametime.
Alabama Rush Offense vs Michigan Run Defense
It seems like all of Bama's strengths match up perfectly against our weaknesses. This does not make for an encouraging preview, but I will try to put my homer glasses on a bit. The Tide's OL has been talked about all offseason as the best in college football. Barrett Jones just won the Outland Trophy last season as the nation's best OL while play LT. He will complete the OL cycle (started at LG for 2 years) this year as he anchors the offense from the Center position. The reason for the change? The backup sophomore LT is too good not to put on the field. This group could have 2 All-Americans at the end of the season and possibly 3 All-SEC players. Meanwhile, Michigan will counter with a mostly new defensive front. It will take each of these guys best effort just to hold their own ground. Alabama lost Trent Richardson, but replaces him with a stable of 4 and 5 star running backs, with likely another Heisman Trophy candidate. It will be interesting to see how Will Campbell plays with his redefined body against the best center he will face all year. Michigan will need to rely on the 3 returning LB's to make the majority of the tackles, and hope that Bama's OL cannot get to the second level on each play. Advantage: Bama by a large margin.
Alabama Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
Well, Michigan's defense will need to be anchored by the returning back 7 this year (when was the last time we could say that?). Alabama runs a very B1G style of play-calling, but they do it with superior athletes. The offense is not complicated. The OL will zone block the heck out of the defense, they will line up in power sets (2 WRs and TE) and run at you. They will also mix in a very efficient play action passing game. Alabama is breaking a new WR group which could help Michigan attack the quarterback (or focus on the run). It will be important for the cornerbacks to not bite on the play action fake and stay with their man. I trust JT Floyd and Blake Countess do make passing a little difficult on AJ McCarron. The problem here is if Jake Ryan or any other pass rush specialist can get any pressure. Greg Mattison is a Remember the Titans type DC ("We are going to blitz all night"). I cannot argue with this logic because the only way to beat a team with a huge physical advantage over you is to take risks. Playing it safe is Bama's style (and eventually Hoke's as well), but in this game Michigan will need to take some calculated risks in hope of forcing a turnover or to shake McCarron's confidence. Remember, using a high risk strategy has potential to back fire as well, so I wouldn't be surprised if Bama had a couple of plays over 40 yards. The goal is for them to also have 2+ turnovers. Advantage: Michigan slightly
Michigan Run Offense vs Alabama Run Defense
The goal for Michigan is to take pressure of from Denard. The less Alabama can focus on our Heisman hopeful, the better chance he has for taking the game over. While most of this sits with Denard's ability to pass the ball, it plays out in the run game as well. With Toussaint likely suspended for at least some of the game, Michigan will be looking to Thomas Rawls and Vincent Smith to get some tough yards. The problem with both guys is there is no homerun threat with either. Bama's defensive line could likely catch both of these guys from behind, and we saw how well running into the heart of the defense over and over again worked for LSU last January. Michigan's offensive line is breaking in a couple of new faces, but should be one of the B1G's best units by the start of the conference season. If they are able to open up a few holes for Rawls to get 4-5 yards per carry, Michigan's offense will be tough to stop. However I dont really see that happening with Bama's terrifying 3-4 set. Just the fact that they run a 3-4 defense is incredible (it will take too long to explain, but just know it is a very difficult formation to succeed in). Again, it is a very simple defensive concept with superior athletes at most positions. Their nose tackle (Jesse Williams benched 600 pounds in the offseason) will call for a double team on each play which will give their D-end sized linebackers a chance to pressure Denard. Folks, their smallest rotational LB is 6'2" 235 and have guys all the way up to 6'3" 262 or 6'6" 248. If Denard can get a few plays into open space, he might be able to run away for most of these guys. The problem is that they are so good at containing the edge that getting to the outside will be a struggle all game long. Advantage: Bama by a large margin if Fitz does not play.
Michigan Pass Offense vs Alabama Pass Defense
This is the great unknown in this game. There are so many question marks that pretty much anything can happen. Has Denard improved as a passer? If so, by how much? Will a receiver step up to be a downfield threat? How will Bama's new secondary play in their first game experience together? I happen to think Denard has improved as a passer, but by how much I have no idea. With the WR position a question mark for this team, he will likely need to throw open his receivers at different points in the game. Bama like to run a lot of different types of blitzes with all of their LB's and a couple of their DB's. Denard's track record against teams with a high pressure defense is not very good. However, if he can get into any sort of rhythm to make the safeties back up a yard or two, Michigan could be able to sustain drives on this team. There was one team that scored 14 points on Bama last year. Yes, I know they lost a lot to the NFL, but Arkansas was able to do it with a short passing game and by mixing up the tempo of the offense (no huddle a few times, then snap the ball with 1 on the clock). Bama's defense likely will not be as stout in this first game as it will in the SEC Title game, but it will be a struggle to move the ball. I have some confidence in Denard, but not enough in our receivers to take advantage of the new secondary. Advantage: Push
Special Teams
Michigan is pretty set at all special teams positions at this point in the season which is a comforting truth, but so is Alabama. With the new kickoff rules, I think the kick off specialists will not be very effective this season. With 10 or more combined punts expected in this game, field position will be a big factor. Michigan has 2 possible punters (one consistent one and one with a golden leg), it will be important for Michigan to win the field position battle and pin Alabama deep in their own zone. If the offense can get a few first downs, this could happen, but I expect it more from Alabama.
Prediction
Nick Saban usually plays the non-conference schedule very close to the polo. He hasn't revealed too much before SEC games start, and I would guess he has the same plan on Saturday. Meanwhile, Brady Hoke has the weight of an entire conference on his shoulders and will likely need to play with the playbook open. Not only would a win here put Michigan closer to elite status again, it would greatly help the view of the B1G. Alabama's last 3 games against the B1G has resulted in a 100-21 point differential. If Michigan can keep it close in the 4th quarter it would be a minor victory. I think Michigan finds a way to make just enough big plays throughout the game to keep the score reasonably close, but scoring 17+ points against Bama seems like a huge feat. I think the final score will be around 24-14 (Michigan beats the spread of 13.5)
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