Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Week 14 Upset Alert


We have made it to the final week of the regular season, and most matchups are ripe with rivalries. Eight of the top nine teams play in some sort of rivalry game, which could lead to an exciting shake up in the BCS top ten rankings.

#24 Duke @ North Carolina
In the first rivalry upset of the week we see a surprising ranked team. Duke might be having their most successful season in its football history. Duke is one win away from a 10 win season and a spot in the ACC Championship Game to be the next sacrifice to the Florida State dominance. North Carolina has won 5 games in a row, and seems to have started clicking on both sides of the ball. Look for quarterback Marquise Williams to have a big game in the air, and for the Tar Heels to outscore the Dukies.

#1 Alabama @ #4 Auburn
This is the heavyweight match of the week, and rightfully so.  While the behind the scenes facts have been discussed ad naseum, I am excited for the Iron Bowl to be settled on the field. Nick Saban has never beat an Auburn team that has finished with 9 or more wins (the Tigers are already 10-1).  Auburn and Alabama have only met once when both in the top 5.  Auburn really shouldn’t have 1 loss, and were extremely lucky against Georgia.  The Tigers still have an outside shot at jumping into the top 2 by winning Saturday, and then the following week in the SEC Championship Game. Anyways onto the game: Alabama’s defense continues to improve, and have gelled into the dominant group that most expected.  Auburn has united under Coach Malzahn, and might have the most dynamic rushing attack in the country.  That is a nice weapon to have, but Alabama’s defense will not be shredded by a one dimensional unit.  Nick Marshall will have to make some plays in the passing game to free up the M&M two-pronged assault (Marshall and Mason).  I do think Auburn will be able to hit on a few big plays in the air, which will loosen the defense and free up at least 2 rushing touchdowns. On the other side of the ball, the balanced attack from the Tide should be able to move the ball consistently and wear down the Tiger defense. Look for Yeldon and the Tide running backs to have a very good game that controls the clock and limits turnovers.  Alabama should give Saban his first win over a good Auburn team. 

#6 Clemson @ #10 South Carolina
The Tigers started the year as the likely candidate to knock Alabama off its throne, but then Florida State rolled to town and then absolutely dominated Clemson in every aspect on their home field. Since then the Tigers have been floating in the top 10 as a one loss team, but nobody really knows how good they are. Now to wrap up the season they take on another top 10 SEC team.  South Carolina has also had a discouraging season, as discouraging as a team still ranked in the top 10 can. The Gamecocks still have an outside chance at the SEC Championship Game, but will need help from Johnny Manziel and company. This matchup will be the last one between Tajh Boyd and Jadeveon Clowney. Boyd has never beat South Carolina, but might have his best chance this Saturday.  The Gamecocks have been riddled with injuries all season, and Clemson seems to be flying under the radar after the Seminole beat down. Look for the experienced Tiger defensive ends to have a big game against the struggling South Carolina tackles, and Connor Shaw has never handled pressure well.  The Gamecocks will need to break a few big plays, likely to Ellington, and hope Davis can have a big game on the ground.  I just don’t think the South Carolina offensive line will be able to protect the quarterback long enough to attack the Clemson weak point (secondary).  On the other side of the ball, Clowney will likely see double and triple teams all game and this year he does not have Devin Taylor on the other side to help him.  Clemson just has too many play makers on offense to South Carolina to keep up with and control.  I guess according to the spread, the Tigers winning on the road would be a upset.

#21 Texas A&M @ #5 Missouri
Another Upset Alert post, and another mention of Missouri.  The Tigers will be playing for a lot more this week, and still haven’t lost when starting quarterback James Franklin plays.  This week is more of a big game preview than an upset alert. The Aggie defense still cannot stop any offense with a pulse, which puts all the pressure on Manziel’s talent.  While I don’t like the kid, I cannot argue that he is one of the best college football players that I have ever seen.  However, the Missouri defensive ends are on a different level than most teams in the country.  I don’t expect the Texas A&M offensive line can hold up all game, and the Tiger pressure will force at least one interception.  Look for Franklin to hook up with the giant receivers Washington and Green-Beckham, and for Henry Josey to have a big game on the ground.  Missouri should go from worst to first in the SEC, and get a chance to play Alabama next week in Atlanta.

#22 UCLA @ #23 USC
This game is very evenly matched and the rankings prove that out.  Whichever team wins will most likely not be considered an upset. Even though Arizona State has clinched the Pac 12 South, both southern California teams have had impressive years. Considering where USC started, it is impressive that the Trojans are competing for a respectable bowl.  USC should have Marqise Lee back this week, which will test the young UCLA secondary.  While the up tempo attack from UCLA and Brett Hundley will test the lack of depth on the Trojan defense, I don’t think the Bruins will be able to outscore USC.

Arizona @ #12 Arizona State
The Wildcats are coming off one of the most impressive wins of the season last week, and are looking to continue to momentum going.  While this game is a rivalry game, Arizona State already has the Pac 12 South wrapped up. The Arizona defense has been playing better lately, but was also helped out by the bad weather last weekend against Oregon. Look for Sun Devil quarterback Kelly to have another huge game through the air, but Ka’Deem Carey is one of the best running backs in the country and will be able to control the clock long enough to keep Arizona State’s point total under 35 which should give the Wildcats a chance to pull out the big upset and give Coach Rodriguez a 2-0 record against the in-state rivals.

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