Puerto Rico Tip Off Preview

Michigan again finds itself in an early season tournament that will test the team’s inexperience, but should help accelerate the growth of this young team.  Two years ago nobody really knew what to expect from the Wolverines when they headed to Maui. It was another young team that relied on underclassmen at two of the guard positions.  Michigan began the tournament against athletically-elite Memphis, moved on to battle a veteran Duke, and finished against talented but divided UCLA.  In any year that is a tough 3 day stretch, but on November 23^rd, 2011 the Michigan Wolverines became a B1G contender.  The young maize and blue team managed to go 2-1, and Trey Burke’s legend was born.  Fast forward a year, and the cagers headed to Madison Square Garden for the Preseason NIT.  Even though the Wolverines were even more inexperienced that the year prior the expectations were drastically different. Michigan was the big fish in an underwhelming tournament lineup, but it didn’t matter because the team was already in midseason form.  Trey Burke began garnering NPOY acclaim, and the freshmen were added to the rotation seamlessly. Now as the Wolverines head to the Puerto Rico Tip-Off the mindset is very similar to 2011. While the overall talent is higher on this team than the one that exceeded expectations in Maui, the expectations could be solidified from this early tournament.

The 2013 Puerto Rico Tip-Off boasts one of the strongest fields of any pre-March Madness tournament.  It brings together a handful of different styles, talents, and intriguing matchups. Lets try to navigate through the 8 team pool to see Michigan’s chances.

The Field with KenPom ratings

Charlotte (#148)

Kansas State (#63)

Northeastern (#164)

Georgetown (#25)

Long Beach State (#202)

Michigan (#18)

Florida State (#65)

VCU (#7)

Michigan’s Potential Opponents

LBSU is the lowest ranked team in the tournament, but The Beach has had a lot of recent basketball success. The 49ers are just 1-3 on the season, but they have played a very difficult schedule so far. Usually LBSU has a very good, up-tempo offense and they are able to outscore most of their opponents. So far this year the offense has been the weak link, and the defense has not shown any improvement. This should be a good game to get the Wolverines back on track.  Look for Derrick Walton to see more minutes, and continue to learn from his mistakes.  Mitch McGary will also be eased into the lineup again, and will probably play 15-20 minutes depending on the score.  It will be very important for both Caris LeVert and Glenn Robinson III to bounce back from subpar games at Iowa State.

If the Wolverines are able to advance past Long Beach State, they will likely face a rematch of last year’s Round of 32 game in the NCAA Tournament: VCU.  The Rams will have revenge on their minds, and will be chomping at the bit to unleash their havoc defense on a freshman point guard. Trey Burke showed glimpses of greatness in Maui his freshman year, especially against the press happy Memphis Tigers. Derrick Walton doing it against one of the best defenses in the country would be even more impressive. Of course the load will not fall solely on number 10’s shoulders, he will have help from Spike Albrecht, Nik Stauskas, LeVert, and even GRIII if needed. Walton has struggled at times with playing too fast or taking a quick shot which will play right into the hands of VCU. This is one area where Coach Beilein is just a cut above the rest: he will leave Derrick in there to learn with the understanding that the end goal can only be realized in March and April and not in November. Of course if Derrick is completely overmatched and unable to initiate the offense, the coaching staff will make the appropriate adjustments, but the new freshman point guard will be given plenty of opportunities to learn and grow as a college player. Michigan broke the press last year easily, and on top of that VCU went cold from the floor for much of the game. The result was the Wolverines winning in resounding fashion. While VCU is quicker than any team in the country, they lack size on the interior.  If Michigan can beat the press, look for Mitch McGary to have the offense ran through him more than last weekend. The Rams could not stop Mitch last season, so look for the maize and blue to test if VCU has made any adjustments.

The Sunday game will likely be against Kansas State or Georgetown. The Wildcats are in their second year under Bruce Pearl, and were also an opponent in the Preseason NIT last year. They are still built around strong defense with a below average offense. They are giving up just over 60 points so far this season, but in turn are not even averaging 70 points themselves. They are led by impressive freshman Marcus Foster, who is scoring almost 17 points per game. However, outside of him scoring has been hard to come by.  Kansas State is also a young team, with 3 first or second year players in the top 5 of minutes played.  Like last year, this squad is looking like one that should improve throughout the season, but is beatable in November.

Georgetown on the other hand is a veteran team looking to replace a lottery pick in Otto Porter. The Hoyas have only played two games, but against two above average opponents (Oregon and Wright State). Georgetown likes to play at a slow pace and run an offshoot of the Princeton offense. It forces teams to play defense for 35 seconds, which can be challenging for young teams (see Michigan against Wisconsin last season).  While Coach Thompson III’s team might not be as talented as the Wolverines they will be very disciplined.  They are led by senior guard Markell Starks (19.5 ppg) and UCLA big man transfer Joshua Smith (15.5 ppg).  The Hoyas would like to keep the game around 60 possessions, where Michigan would like to bump that number up to 70+.

Even if Michigan isn’t the favorite to win the Puerto Rico Tip Off, it will be a great learning opportunity for the team.  After losing to Iowa State last weekend, going 2-1 would be a minimum expectation for this weekend.  Anything less than that could affect seeding come March. It will be exciting to see the character of this team start to take shape, and after the 3 games in 4 days more realistic expectations can be set for the 2013-2014 Michigan Basketball team.