The Michigan Wolverines managed to score more points than their opponent last week, and will try to continue this thing called winning. Quick view: it doesn’t look likely.
The Hawkeyes have been decimated by ACL injuries to running backs in previous years, but Iowa has a trio of healthy backs still. While they will not do anything creative in any aspect, the offensive line is always disciplined and able to execute the game plan, and the running backs are able to run through holes for a decent average. This year Iowa is averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and averaging nearly 200 yards a game. This slots them near the middle of college football. The trio of backs include lineman-sized Mark Weisman, homerun threat Damon Bullock, and emerging sophomore Jordan Canzeri. Look for the Hawkeyes to deploy all three tomorrow, with Weisman likely getting most of the carries due to the inclement weather. As brutal as the Michigan offense has been this year, it has overshadowed the impressive improvement from the defense. The Wolverine rush defense is one of the best in the country surrendering only 3.2 yards per carry. The defensive line has had back to back best games of the season, but will be looking at a stiffer test tomorrow. I expect Michigan to be able to play their base defense more, which will keep Washington on the field for the majority of snaps. Even though Iowa will try to run the ball 30+ times, I don’t think they will have much success and will need to use the passing game to find seams with the running backs. Advantage Michigan.
Iowa Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
The Hawkeye passing attack is far from elite, but it has been consistent. Jake Rudock is completing 60% of his passes, but for only 14 touchdowns. The main targets are Michigan native Kevonte Martin-Manley and super-giant TE C.J. Fiedorowicz. Michigan has the athletes in the secondary to take away the wide receivers, but the Hawkeyes have found a lot of success against the Wolverines in past years by using tight ends in deep seam routes. If Michigan can continue to get an organic pass rush with four, or call effective blitzes, Rudock is prone to making a few mistakes. The problem is the Iowa offensive line has only given up 9 sacks this year (basically a game for Devin Gardner). If the Wolverine defensive line is able to collapse the pocket, the entire Iowa offensive attack will be shut down. I don’t think the pass rush will be as consistent as last week. Coach Mattison seemed more willing to send extra blitzers last week, but will he do the same tomorrow? His confidence in his defense has not been higher, so I think he gambles more than early in the season to try to frustrate Rudock. It also helps that Iowa is unlikely to beat you over the top for big plays that don’t include the tight ends. This will be an interesting game to see how much playing time Joe Bolden gets because he has consistently been the worst linebacker in coverage all season, and Iowa will try to exploit him when he is on the field. Even though Michigan would be able to lock down the potential Iowa pass catchers for the standard 3-4 seconds, Rudock will likely have much more time in the pocket. Look for coverage to break down a few times for critical medium passing plays, especially over the middle. Advantage Iowa.
Michigan Rush Offense vs Iowa Rush Defense
Even though the Wolverines remembered to run forward last week in Evanston, Iowa presents a much tougher test. The Hawkeyes are in a top ten rushing defense (strength of schedule caveats apply). That won’t matter in this one as any combination of Toussaint, Green, or Smith will likely be held to under 3 yards per carry. On a side note, senior Fitz is supposed to be back from injury this week, but at what point does the coaching staff let the young pups get crucial playing time. They are bigger than Toussaint, and find a way to at least fall forward. They could be the difference between 40 rushing yards and 50. Advantage Iowa.
Michigan Pass Offense vs Iowa Pass Defense
Since the Wolverines will likely be running into a brick wall that hits you back, any offensive consistency will again fall on the shoulders of Devin Gardner. Iowa does not have a great secondary, but that hasn’t stopped Gardner from playing 500 with the defense or being too hesitant that results in him on his back. The Hawkeyes defense strategy is straight out of 1980, and probably hasn’t changed once since then. They are content to sit back in a Cover 2, and they do not blitz often (if at all). Michigan has to be able to protect Gardner in this one. Iowa will use the early season Michigan bend-don’t-break strategy that will force Gardner to connect on short passing routes down the field. It has been over 2 months since the Wolverines were able to do this consistently. On top of that, if Gardner is running for his life from the front 4 it is going to be a really long day in Iowa City. Michigan has better playmakers than Iowa can defend with, but will the protection and throws be good enough to take advantage. Against Michigan State, Nebraska, and Northwestern the Wolverines weren’t able to. I would like to think the Michigan offense took a step forward in overtime last Saturday, but I wont believe it until I see it. Advantage Push.
I think Iowa is a better football team than Northwestern, and more consistent than Nebraska. On top of that Michigan hasn’t won in the land of corn since the days of Mike Hart. If you want more to be concerned about, the Wolverines struggle on the road under Brady Hoke. This game 2 years ago was when fans began to question Coach Borges offensive plans. Again, on paper Michigan is the better team. Offensively they haven’t played up to that potential since Indiana, and it seems doubtful they will again this season. With the temperatures in the teens, and the wind chill low enough to even freeze the fleshy Iowa-ins I don’t see how the Wolverines can score over 20 points (which shouldn’t be a problem with the talent on that side of the ball). Iowa 13 Michigan 3.
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