The battle for the state of Michigan is here again, and the Spartans are favored again. Growing up in farm land most of my friends were State fans, so I have had a growing hatred of anything green and white for nearly 27 years. Even with being around Sparties longer than Buckeyes, these rivalries have different meanings. Yes, I dislike all four colors and both schools, but Michigan is expected to beat Michigan State. So the winning feeling is generally just a deep sense of relief, while a victory over OSU brings out the joy. Like Mgoblog stated today: “The inferiority complex (or little brother syndrome) is bred out of inferiority.” Which sums up Michigan State in exactly every aspect. Alright, enough ranting, lets get to the preview.
Michigan State Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
The Spartans are currently using a 2 back system. Jeremy Langford gets the majority of the carries, while impressive freshman Delton Williams gets the short yardage calls. Langford has been improving with each week, but his overall stats are just average. Williams comes in and does a really good job falling forward (something that Derrick Green cannot claim). The Spartan offensive line is average at run blocking. Even with playing a subpar schedule so far, Michigan State have only averaged 5 yards per carry against Indiana. They do a good job of not losing yards (like Michigan tends to) and getting 3-4 yards with each run. With Michigan State’s base offense, the Wolverines will be able to play their base 4-3 defense which is much more successful. Look for Quinton Washington to be on the field for the majority of snaps, and for him to have a big game. Michigan’s defense is built to defend this style of offense. I think Desmond Morgan, Quinton Washington, Jake Ryan, and Frank Clark have a big game bottling up Langford and Williams. Advantage Michigan.
Michigan State Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
The Spartans continue to cycle through a never ending list of receivers, but with little success. Bennie Fowler just dropped another pass. Keith Mumphrey still has a cornerback in his back pocket. Aaron Burbridge has been a disappointment thus far. Tony Lippett is just average on his best day. That leaves Macgarrett Kings, which happens to be the Spartans top receiver by default. He has been the most consistent pass catcher of the bunch, but doesn’t have elite speed for the slot or overwhelming size. Tight end Josiah Price is starting get more involved in the passing game, but is not as talented as what Penn State or Indiana presented. Like mentioned earlier, the Michigan defense is built to defend this type of offense. It plays right into Coach Mattison’s wheelhouse. However, the Wolverine secondary has optioned to play a lot of soft zone coverage this season. The theory is that most teams cannot pick up 5-10 yards per play all the way down the field without making a mistake. The problem here is that Michigan State runs a very vanilla offense that does not make many mistakes. They will be thrilled to take the 5-10 yards if it is given to them. I expect Coach Mattison to blitz a lot more tomorrow, especially because all reports point to Jake Ryan being 100%. With this added pressure, Connor Cook will be flushed out the pocket where his confidence and mechanics break down. I expect him to throw at least one interception. Michigan is built to stop this passing attack, but the question will be will scheme put the players in the best situation to succeed? I think it will. Advantage Michigan.
Michigan Rush Offense vs Michigan State Rush Defense
Whew this has a large probability of being extremely ugly. The Spartans have one of the best rush defenses in the nation, and Michigan hasn’t proven it can run consistently on anyone. I think Coach Borges will try to use runs from under center to try to set up the deep play action pass, but these runs actually have a negative percentage chance of working. Bad things happen when Michigan tries to run from these formations. However, this is a trade-off because Devin has been very effective in the play-action passing game from under center and Michigan likes to run a lot of QB waggle plays. Michigan will likely split the formations between under center and shotgun, and in order for the standard play action passes to have any success the Wolverines will need to sacrifice Fitz Toussaint to the brick wall of death, which is the Spartan defense. Michigan should be able to find some success while running out of shotgun, either with a running back or Gardner. Devin’s scrambling ability is good enough to be able to freeze even the best defenses. I don’t think Fitz will crack 3 yards per carry in this game, so how many times Coach Borges is willing to feed him to Max Bullough is still unknown. Hopefully Fitz does not top 15 carries, and out of those most come from shotgun. Also, Michigan is very scared of getting Devin hurt or worn out from too many rush attempts, but he will need to carry the ball 10+ times for the Wolverines to have any consistency moving the ball. I could see the Spartan defense breaking down for one play, where Devin runs for a 20+ yard gain but the rest of the game should be locked down pretty tightly. Advantage Michigan State.
Michigan Pass Offense vs Michigan State Pass Defense
Like most games, this section is the big X factor. The Wolverines have a lot of playmakers in this area, but have been hampered by inexcusable turnovers and drops at times. The Spartans secondary plays aggressive man to man defense, and will test Gardner’s trust in his receivers. It will be important for him to not lock onto Jeremy Gallon. The glaring advantage here is Devin Funchess now at wide receiver. Nobody on the Spartan roster can cover a 6’5” freak athlete one on one. Funchess’ time at tight end should prepare him for the physicality he will see in Spartan Stadium. Gardner will need to find him early and often to see if it forces Michigan State to double cover him. If Narduzzi is forced out of his base defense, it would leave Gallon alone on the outside and could really open up the middle of the field for Jake Butt, Drew Dileo, or Jehu Chesson. It is doubtful that Narduzzi ever leaves his base quarter defense, which should allow both Devins to connect frequently. Of course, Michigan is also able to just self-implode at any minute which would make this game unwinnable. It will be interesting to see how the young interior offensive line holds up to the many different blitzes that Michigan State will call. I don’t think Magnuson will be too successful under center, but is quick enough to buy Devin time in the shotgun. I also expect tomorrow to be a coming out party for Kyle Bosch. It is very impressive that a true freshman is seeing playing time on the offensive line, which I am taking to believe he is the best guard in nearly 10 years at Michigan. Glasgow will be really tested at center. The Spartans, under Narduzzi, have been known for double A gap blitzes and jumping the Wolverine snap count. The Michigan offense needs to find a way to vary the timing somehow, or two linebackers will be beating the ball to Gardner. If the offensive line can hold up at all, Devin should be able to gain enough confidence to mirror his Notre Dame performance. However, if he is running for his life all game, expect some incredibly horrible turnovers from the new 98. Advantage Push
The big question in my mind is how will the offensive game plan look tomorrow. It seems likely that Michigan will try to spread out the Spartan defense, but if Gardner runs into early trouble like he has in most games will Coach Borges retreat into turtle mode? Devin needs to be unleashed. Yes, he can make some of the worst decisions and turnovers that I have ever seen a college quarterback make, but he is also capable of making some of the most incredible passes and escapes. At this point in the season the Wolverines need to roll with him, and just let him go. It is the only way that all of Devin’s potential will be unlocked, even if it comes with some ugly speed bumps along the way. On paper Michigan is the better team, but they have proven the ability to lose to anyone. Michigan State is the more consistent squad, with the Spartans you know what you are getting: a good to elite defense with a game managing offense. I want to be optimistic about this Wolverine team, but I just can’t after the Penn State debacle. Michigan State 17 Michigan -5
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