Week 14: Ohio State Preview

Mercifully we have made it to the regular season finale.  Unfortunately the Wolverines have to face the toughest opponent on the schedule, and one that is still looking for style points to jump into the top 2 of the BCS standings.

Ohio State Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
The Buckeyes boast one of the best rushing attacks in the B1G.  They are led by senior Carlos Hyde and dual-threat quarterback Braxton Miller.  The offensive line is experienced, and has improved throughout the season.  Last year Michigan focused on stopping Miller, and they succeeded for the most part.  However, Hyde had a huge game and was able to ice the win in the fourth quarter when the Wolverines could not stop him. Again Michigan has a good run defense, but it will be tested time and again on Saturday. It is likely that Coach Mattison wants to use a similar game plan to take away Miller’s home run threat and try to contain Hyde between the tackles. It will be interesting to see if Michigan tries to deploy a linebacker spy for Miller which will effectively remove a player from the box.  The Wolverines have improved when defending the option, but look for that improvement to be tested. Ohio State will try to attack the edges against the offense.  The scary thing is if it is not working, the offensive line and Hyde are still able to run between the tackles.  Look for Frank Clark to continue his redemption tour season, and for him and Cam Gordon/Ryan to shut down the option.  Hyde will test the interior defense, which they will likely find success against undersized Jibreel Black.  Ohio State will likely still push 170+ rushing yards, but it will be important for the Wolverines to keep the yards per carry under 5. Advantage Ohio State.

Ohio State Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
The Michigan secondary will probably continue their roller coaster season.  There have been times when they look like a near shut down unit, but then just as soon as thinking that they can break down and give up a huge play.  Hopefully Jarrod Wilson and Thomas Gordon play the whole way, and Courtney Avery only sees spot time at a nickel back.  Braxton Miller has never been the most accurate passer, but Ohio State uses the short passing routes and screens to get their quarterback into a comfortable mind set. If Michigan cannot defend the run with the standard 4-3 defense, and need to start cheating a safety into the box look for Miller to look for one of his speedsters down the field. Michigan dialed up the pressure against Northwestern, but then sat back into the bend but don’t break defense against Iowa. Even though the Buckeye offensive line is very good, Coach Mattison has to take chances and send a wide array of blitzes. Miller is very prone to mistakes when under pressure, and it is the only way to slow down the OSU offense. Even if Frank Clark has a good day in the backfield, he will need help.  I think a lot of that will come from a combination of Ross, Ryan, and Cam Gordon.  Look for the secondary to record at least one interception, but also give up at least one big play over the top likely to Corey Brown.  Advantage Ohio State.

Michigan Rush Offense vs Ohio State Rush Defense
In one word: death. The Wolverines were dominant by their standards last week when they rushed for 3 yards per carry.  The Buckeye defense is not as stout against the run as Iowa is, so there could be some yards for the taking here.  The problem is that the Wolverines might be the worst rushing team in the country.  Even with Derrick Green and DeVeon Smith getting a bulk of the carries, their ability to fall forward results in getting back to the line of scrimmage.  Ohio State’s defense can be attacked here, but it is very unlikely with Gardner nowhere near 100% and the offensive line blocking less defenders than reach the backfield. Most teams should be able to achieve 4 yards per carry against this Buckeye defense, but I would consider it a win if the Wolverines could replicate last week’s output. Advantage Ohio State.

Michigan Pass Offense vs Ohio State Pass Defense
Iowa didn’t blitz as much as the previous three opponents, and therefore the Wolverine offensive line only gave up one sack. This could be looked at as a major step forward, and while it was nice to see Devin upright for most of the game, the offensive line will need to take another huge step this week. The Buckeyes are the best pass rushing team in the conference. The defensive line replaced a lot from last year, and seemingly have not missed a beat.  Many of the stars are Urban’s first recruits, whereas Hoke’s offensive recruits have yet to show their high rankings. I expect the interior of the line to get blown up all day, and Ohio State won’t even have to blitz much.  It will be much worse if they send Ryan Shazier as a heat seeking missile.  I would be surprised if the Michigan quarterback is sacked less than 5 times. The question will be if/when Devin has time if he can exploit the high risk/ high reward secondary Jeremy Gallon and Devin Funchess could have a lot of receiving yards. However, I don’t expect much success in this area either.  If Devin has time, and could get into a rhythm early in the game Michigan could push 250 yards in the air, but this has not happened since Indiana and I doubt it will on Saturday. I just hope the duct tape holding Gardner together doesn’t rip in half, and the Michigan quarterback finds a way to leave in one piece. Advantage Ohio State.

The line is anywhere between 13 and 16 depending on which site you look at, and both numbers are probably still too low. Ohio State and Urban Meyer want to leave a good impression with the BCS voters, and they need quality wins and style points. Don’t expect the Buckeyes to take their foot off the gas until the clock is at zero.  Michigan has done a better job at protecting the ball the last few weeks, but if the turnover bug strikes again this game will get out of a hurry fast.  The only hope for the Wolverines is if the offensive line has a career day, and Gardner finds his confidence even though he can barely still stand.  On top of that, the defense would need to force a few turnovers and give the offense a short field. That is a lot of ifs.  Lets just take it as a win if the Big House isn’t a sea of red, but I doubt Michigan wins that battle either. Ohio State 38 Michigan 7.

B1G Week 14 Preview

Iowa @ Nebraska Friday 12:00pm
The best game on the schedule will be the first one of the weekend which will leave Saturday for the more interesting top 25 matchups.  The Hawkeyes have quietly put together a quality season.  We don’t know if that is due to the overwhelming weakness of the conference, or if Iowa is actually average. I have mentioned Nebraska’s Jekyll and Hyde home and road splits, so luckily for the Huskers they are in Lincoln to close the season.  Even though Iowa doesn’t do anything one thing on an elite level, they are consistent and do not beat themselves. As well as Nebraska has played this season at home, I just think the Hawkeyes balanced attack will be good enough to move the ball.  The Husker’s offense is a shell of what it was to start the season, and will rely on Ameer Abdullah to have a big game.  When Iowa is able to key on a one dimensional offense, the defense has looked dominant. While Abdullah will still likely get to 100 yards, I doubt he will exceed 5 yards per carry.  Look for a late turnover to seal the Huskers fate, as Iowa will move up the B1G bowl selection pecking order.

Minnesota @ Michigan State Saturday 12:00pm
The Gophers somehow hung with Wisconsin last week which might be Minnesota’s most impressive feat of the season.  This week they have to travel to East Lansing.  Even though Michigan State has already wrapped up the division, they are still trying to impress the BCS voters to stay in BCS at large contention.  The Spartan defense is just too dominant for the run first, run second, and run some more offense from Minnesota.  While this final score might be lower scoring, it will be an easy victory for Michigan State.

Purdue @ Indiana Saturday 3:30pm
The Boilermakers had their best chance of stealing a conference win last week against Illinois, but couldn’t close the deal.  Even though Purdue is one of the worst B1G teams ever they have improved throughout the season.  Indiana is coming off of two beat downs at the hand of Wisconsin and Ohio State.  The Hoosier offense will look to get back into form at home, and I don’t think Purdue will be able to stop them at all. Indiana will put up a lot of points again, but Purdue might actually top 28 in this one.

Northwestern @ Illinois Saturday 3:30pm
Illinois will get to play in back to back pillow fights. A week after escaping against Purdue for their first conference win under Coach Beckman, the Illini will welcome winless Northwestern.  The Illinois defense is still plenty bad, but Northwestern has been devastated by injuries.  After the overtime loss to Michigan it looked like the Wildcat players have thrown in the towel.  I would like to see Coach Fitz end on a little positive note, but I think Nathan Scheelhasse will be too much for Northwestern to contain and Illinois will finish on a 2 game winning streak.

Penn State @ Wisconsin Saturday 3:30pm
The Badgers still have a shot at another BCS bowl, but they need some style points.  Even though Penn State is really bad this season, their tradition gives them a little recognition. Also, it will be a good opportunity to compare what Ohio State did at home to the Nittany Lions.  While it doesn’t seem like the new coach in Madison is as much of a meat head as his predecessor, Penn State will not be able to stop the Badger rushing attack.  Look for White and Gordon to close out the regular season in style, and for Wisconsin to roll on senior day at Camp Randall.

Week 14 Upset Alert

We have made it to the final week of the regular season, and most matchups are ripe with rivalries. Eight of the top nine teams play in some sort of rivalry game, which could lead to an exciting shake up in the BCS top ten rankings.

#24 Duke @ North Carolina
In the first rivalry upset of the week we see a surprising ranked team. Duke might be having their most successful season in its football history. Duke is one win away from a 10 win season and a spot in the ACC Championship Game to be the next sacrifice to the Florida State dominance. North Carolina has won 5 games in a row, and seems to have started clicking on both sides of the ball. Look for quarterback Marquise Williams to have a big game in the air, and for the Tar Heels to outscore the Dukies.

#1 Alabama @ #4 Auburn
This is the heavyweight match of the week, and rightfully so.  While the behind the scenes facts have been discussed ad naseum, I am excited for the Iron Bowl to be settled on the field. Nick Saban has never beat an Auburn team that has finished with 9 or more wins (the Tigers are already 10-1).  Auburn and Alabama have only met once when both in the top 5.  Auburn really shouldn’t have 1 loss, and were extremely lucky against Georgia.  The Tigers still have an outside shot at jumping into the top 2 by winning Saturday, and then the following week in the SEC Championship Game. Anyways onto the game: Alabama’s defense continues to improve, and have gelled into the dominant group that most expected.  Auburn has united under Coach Malzahn, and might have the most dynamic rushing attack in the country.  That is a nice weapon to have, but Alabama’s defense will not be shredded by a one dimensional unit.  Nick Marshall will have to make some plays in the passing game to free up the M&M two-pronged assault (Marshall and Mason).  I do think Auburn will be able to hit on a few big plays in the air, which will loosen the defense and free up at least 2 rushing touchdowns. On the other side of the ball, the balanced attack from the Tide should be able to move the ball consistently and wear down the Tiger defense. Look for Yeldon and the Tide running backs to have a very good game that controls the clock and limits turnovers.  Alabama should give Saban his first win over a good Auburn team. 

#6 Clemson @ #10 South Carolina
The Tigers started the year as the likely candidate to knock Alabama off its throne, but then Florida State rolled to town and then absolutely dominated Clemson in every aspect on their home field. Since then the Tigers have been floating in the top 10 as a one loss team, but nobody really knows how good they are. Now to wrap up the season they take on another top 10 SEC team.  South Carolina has also had a discouraging season, as discouraging as a team still ranked in the top 10 can. The Gamecocks still have an outside chance at the SEC Championship Game, but will need help from Johnny Manziel and company. This matchup will be the last one between Tajh Boyd and Jadeveon Clowney. Boyd has never beat South Carolina, but might have his best chance this Saturday.  The Gamecocks have been riddled with injuries all season, and Clemson seems to be flying under the radar after the Seminole beat down. Look for the experienced Tiger defensive ends to have a big game against the struggling South Carolina tackles, and Connor Shaw has never handled pressure well.  The Gamecocks will need to break a few big plays, likely to Ellington, and hope Davis can have a big game on the ground.  I just don’t think the South Carolina offensive line will be able to protect the quarterback long enough to attack the Clemson weak point (secondary).  On the other side of the ball, Clowney will likely see double and triple teams all game and this year he does not have Devin Taylor on the other side to help him.  Clemson just has too many play makers on offense to South Carolina to keep up with and control.  I guess according to the spread, the Tigers winning on the road would be a upset.

#21 Texas A&M @ #5 Missouri
Another Upset Alert post, and another mention of Missouri.  The Tigers will be playing for a lot more this week, and still haven’t lost when starting quarterback James Franklin plays.  This week is more of a big game preview than an upset alert. The Aggie defense still cannot stop any offense with a pulse, which puts all the pressure on Manziel’s talent.  While I don’t like the kid, I cannot argue that he is one of the best college football players that I have ever seen.  However, the Missouri defensive ends are on a different level than most teams in the country.  I don’t expect the Texas A&M offensive line can hold up all game, and the Tiger pressure will force at least one interception.  Look for Franklin to hook up with the giant receivers Washington and Green-Beckham, and for Henry Josey to have a big game on the ground.  Missouri should go from worst to first in the SEC, and get a chance to play Alabama next week in Atlanta.

#22 UCLA @ #23 USC
This game is very evenly matched and the rankings prove that out.  Whichever team wins will most likely not be considered an upset. Even though Arizona State has clinched the Pac 12 South, both southern California teams have had impressive years. Considering where USC started, it is impressive that the Trojans are competing for a respectable bowl.  USC should have Marqise Lee back this week, which will test the young UCLA secondary.  While the up tempo attack from UCLA and Brett Hundley will test the lack of depth on the Trojan defense, I don’t think the Bruins will be able to outscore USC.

Arizona @ #12 Arizona State
The Wildcats are coming off one of the most impressive wins of the season last week, and are looking to continue to momentum going.  While this game is a rivalry game, Arizona State already has the Pac 12 South wrapped up. The Arizona defense has been playing better lately, but was also helped out by the bad weather last weekend against Oregon. Look for Sun Devil quarterback Kelly to have another huge game through the air, but Ka’Deem Carey is one of the best running backs in the country and will be able to control the clock long enough to keep Arizona State’s point total under 35 which should give the Wildcats a chance to pull out the big upset and give Coach Rodriguez a 2-0 record against the in-state rivals.

B1G Week 13 Recap

The B1G Championship Game was finalized this week, cementing what everyone knew for the past month.  Other than that it was a pretty standard day around the conference: losing teams mostly looking terrible and winning teams only slightly better.

Good surprise:
It is almost the end of November already, so this embarrassment of a season can finally be taken out back and put out of its misery.

Bad surprise:
I know Illinois is bad, but how do you let Purdue stay within 4 points in a football game. Purdue wouldn’t be bowl eligible in the MAC, and Illinois struggled with the Boilers on both sides of the ball. But I guess congrats to Illinois for recording their first win in two of the worst B1G years in history.

Nebraska might be the most bipolar team in the conference, and while road woes have been publicly covered with Michigan the Huskers might fall in the same boat. Their last three weeks have seen Big Red look absolutely terrible in Ann Arbor and Happy Valley, but then outplayed Michigan State at home in between.  What does that mean when they head to Florida on January 1^st?

Week 13 conference rankings:
1. Ohio State (no change)
2. Michigan State (up 1)
3. Wisconsin (down 1)
4. Minnesota (no change)
5. Nebraska (no change)
6. Iowa (no change)
7. Michigan (no change)
8. Indiana (no change)
9. Penn State (no change)
10. Northwestern (no change)
11. Illinois (no change)
12. Purdue (no change)

Week 13: Iowa Recap

It is Thanksgiving week, and I am extremely thankful that there is only two more football games to preview and recap. 

If you watched the game, you know how frustrating it was.

If you didnt watch the game I am so envious of you.

Week 13: Iowa Preview

The Michigan Wolverines managed to score more points than their opponent last week, and will try to continue this thing called winning.  Quick view: it doesn’t look likely.

Iowa Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
The Hawkeyes have been decimated by ACL injuries to running backs in previous years, but Iowa has a trio of healthy backs still.  While they will not do anything creative in any aspect, the offensive line is always disciplined and able to execute the game plan, and the running backs are able to run through holes for a decent average.  This year Iowa is averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and averaging nearly 200 yards a game. This slots them near the middle of college football. The trio of backs include lineman-sized Mark Weisman, homerun threat Damon Bullock, and emerging sophomore Jordan Canzeri.  Look for the Hawkeyes to deploy all three tomorrow, with Weisman likely getting most of the carries due to the inclement weather. As brutal as the Michigan offense has been this year, it has overshadowed the impressive improvement from the defense. The Wolverine rush defense is one of the best in the country surrendering only 3.2 yards per carry.  The defensive line has had back to back best games of the season, but will be looking at a stiffer test tomorrow. I expect Michigan to be able to play their base defense more, which will keep Washington on the field for the majority of snaps. Even though Iowa will try to run the ball 30+ times, I don’t think they will have much success and will need to use the passing game to find seams with the running backs. Advantage Michigan.

Iowa Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
The Hawkeye passing attack is far from elite, but it has been consistent.  Jake Rudock is completing 60% of his passes, but for only 14 touchdowns. The main targets are Michigan native Kevonte Martin-Manley and super-giant TE C.J. Fiedorowicz.  Michigan has the athletes in the secondary to take away the wide receivers, but the Hawkeyes have found a lot of success against the Wolverines in past years by using tight ends in deep seam routes. If Michigan can continue to get an organic pass rush with four, or call effective blitzes, Rudock is prone to making a few mistakes.  The problem is the Iowa offensive line has only given up 9 sacks this year (basically a game for Devin Gardner).  If the Wolverine defensive line is able to collapse the pocket, the entire Iowa offensive attack will be shut down.  I don’t think the pass rush will be as consistent as last week. Coach Mattison seemed more willing to send extra blitzers last week, but will he do the same tomorrow? His confidence in his defense has not been higher, so I think he gambles more than early in the season to try to frustrate Rudock.  It also helps that Iowa is unlikely to beat you over the top for big plays that don’t include the tight ends. This will be an interesting game to see how much playing time Joe Bolden gets because he has consistently been the worst linebacker in coverage all season, and Iowa will try to exploit him when he is on the field. Even though Michigan would be able to lock down the potential Iowa pass catchers for the standard 3-4 seconds, Rudock will likely have much more time in the pocket.  Look for coverage to break down a few times for critical medium passing plays, especially over the middle. Advantage Iowa.  

Michigan Rush Offense vs Iowa Rush Defense
Even though the Wolverines remembered to run forward last week in Evanston, Iowa presents a much tougher test. The Hawkeyes are in a top ten rushing defense (strength of schedule caveats apply). That won’t matter in this one as any combination of Toussaint, Green, or Smith will likely be held to under 3 yards per carry. On a side note, senior Fitz is supposed to be back from injury this week, but at what point does the coaching staff let the young pups get crucial playing time.  They are bigger than Toussaint, and find a way to at least fall forward. They could be the difference between 40 rushing yards and 50. Advantage Iowa.

Michigan Pass Offense vs Iowa Pass Defense
Since the Wolverines will likely be running into a brick wall that hits you back, any offensive consistency will again fall on the shoulders of Devin Gardner. Iowa does not have a great secondary, but that hasn’t stopped Gardner from playing 500 with the defense or being too hesitant that results in him on his back.  The Hawkeyes defense strategy is straight out of 1980, and probably hasn’t changed once since then. They are content to sit back in a Cover 2, and they do not blitz often (if at all).  Michigan has to be able to protect Gardner in this one.  Iowa will use the early season Michigan bend-don’t-break strategy that will force Gardner to connect on short passing routes down the field. It has been over 2 months since the Wolverines were able to do this consistently.  On top of that, if Gardner is running for his life from the front 4 it is going to be a really long day in Iowa City.  Michigan has better playmakers than Iowa can defend with, but will the protection and throws be good enough to take advantage. Against Michigan State, Nebraska, and Northwestern the Wolverines weren’t able to. I would like to think the Michigan offense took a step forward in overtime last Saturday, but I wont believe it until I see it. Advantage Push.

I think Iowa is a better football team than Northwestern, and more consistent than Nebraska. On top of that Michigan hasn’t won in the land of corn since the days of Mike Hart.  If you want more to be concerned about, the Wolverines struggle on the road under Brady Hoke.  This game 2 years ago was when fans began to question Coach Borges offensive plans.  Again, on paper Michigan is the better team. Offensively they haven’t played up to that potential since Indiana, and it seems doubtful they will again this season.  With the temperatures in the teens, and the wind chill low enough to even freeze the fleshy Iowa-ins I don’t see how the Wolverines can score over 20 points (which shouldn’t be a problem with the talent on that side of the ball).  Iowa 13 Michigan 3.

Week 13 Upset Alert

This week features a mixed bag of games. Many of the top teams are playing horrible teams as their final nonconference game, but many mid-ranked teams will be challenged this week.

#12 Texas A&M @ #22 LSU
The Aggies still have Johnny Manziel for a few more games, but he does not play defense.  Even though LSU has 3 losses I think they are one of the best teams in the country. Zach Mettenberger has really emerged as one of the best quarterbacks of the SEC, and the young defense continues to improve. A&M will still be able to score points on the Tigers, but they haven’t been able to stop anybody this season.  LSU will be able to control the game on the ground, and use the home field advantage to knock off the Aggies.

#8 Missouri @ #24 Ole Miss
I put Missouri on my upset alert each week for a while in October because I thought their record was inflated by playing an easy schedule. But they continued to impress me, even with being upset by South Carolina. Ole Miss was everyone’s dark horse pick in the preseason, and have quietly worked their way back into the top 25. The Tiger defense will cause a lot of problems for Bo Wallace, but if he can get the ball to the outside to Moncrief or Treadwell the Rebels could score some points in this game. I think the Missouri defensive ends will have a big game, and the Tiger offense does just enough on offense to hold off Ole Miss on the road.

#4 Baylor @ #10 Oklahoma State
This year would be a great one to start the 4 team playoff because I think Baylor could compete with Florida State, if not Alabama. The Bears have an electric offense that uses the entire field to attack the defense. On top of having good playmakers in the skill positions, they also play at one of the fastest tempos in the country.  The Cowboys started as the Big 12 favorites, but haven’t lived up to the lofty expectations even though they find themselves in the top 10 again.  I don’t think Ok State has the offensive firepower needed to hang with the Bears. Look for Petty and the Baylor offense to continue their scoring rampage.