Sweet 16 Preview

The Sweet Sixteen is upon us, and there are a number of intriguing matchups.  While the first weekend was filled with upsets, the major contenders are all still playing.  I mean, lets face it, did you really think Gonzaga or Georgetown were going to win a national title?  The opening Thursday and Friday should be national holidays, and are two of the best days in sports for the year, but I really enjoy the round of 16 because usually it is the first time that the number 1 seeds are truly tested, and the tournament heavyweights present themselves.

East

Marquette vs Miami

Both teams struggled in the opening weekend, and probably should have lost already (Marquette to Davidson and Miami to Illinois).  The Golden Eagles benefitted from Michigan slumping down the stretch, because they probably should have been a 4 seed instead of the maize and blue.  The Hurricanes received some bad news this week as solid center Reggie Johnson needed knee surgery and is likely out until the Final Four.  Without him, I doubt Miami makes it that far. Marquette will want to play this game in the 60’s, but Miami will want to exploit the Golden Eagles’ lack of athleticism and increase the tempo.  Vander Blue has been huge for Marquette in the tournament, while Shane Larkin is showing why he is the best guard in the ACC.  I definitely think losing Johnson will hurt Miami, but I don’t think Marquette has enough weapons to pull the upset.

Indiana vs Syracuse

At first thought this seems like a heavyweight matchup.  Both teams have the name recognition, and both were in the top 5 at some point this season. But when you dig into the stats it seems like Indiana has a decided advantage. The Orange rank as one of the best defensive teams in the country; using their excessive length to play their signature 2-3 matchup zone. But Indiana has the best zone offense in the B1G, and the most efficient offense overall.  While the Hoosiers lack the front court depth and size that Syracuse plays, they do have one of the best stretch 4’s in the game.  Christian Watford will be the key to this game, as I would imagine him to be the man to flash to the free throw line to attack the zone.  He can score from anywhere on the floor, and if he is aggressive on the offensive end then Indiana will conduct a 40 minute clinic on how to break the 2-3 zone. If the Orange can keep Watford in check, then Syracuse can control the pace of play and keep the Hoosiers under 70.  This will be needed because Cuse really struggles on the offensive end of the floor.  At the end of the day I think Indiana eventually pulls away in the 2^nd half.

West

Arizona vs Ohio State

On paper this will be the Buckeye’s toughest game until the Final Four.  Yes, a 6 seed will be the Buckeye’s toughest game on paper.  In reality, Iowa State might be the only team to stay within 10 until Atlanta. Arizona is coached by a former Thad Matta assistant, Sean Miller.  You might remember him from Xavier when they should have pulled the upset over Greg Oden led Ohio State a few years ago.  The Wildcats are loaded with young talent and an experienced point guard transfer.  The problem with Arizona, like any young team, is inconsistency.  If they can play a focused 40 minutes of basketball, Arizona can play with anyone, but I am not sure they have done that at any point this season.  One thing is for sure; Ohio State is playing its best basketball of the season, and the Wildcats have not seen physical, lock-down, defense like they will tonight.  If the seconday scoring option (Craft, Smith, Ross, Thompson) for the Buckeyes can continue, they will be advancing to another Elite 8. 

Wichita State vs La Salle

The Shockers pulled off the almost expected upset of Gonzaga last week, and are playing some of the best basketball in the tournament.  Head coach Greg Marshall is pushing to be on the same level as Shaka Smart and Brad Stevens.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up in Minnesota next season, and UCLA should also make a run at him.  Wichita State plays a B1G style of play where they defend for 35 seconds, and rebound the heck out of the basketball.  La Salle has been the beneficiary of playing one of the biggest tournament under-achievers, Bruce Weber, and then a terrible Ole Miss team.  They are the last A-10 team left.  They have used a similar style to make the sweet 16.  It is hard to see this game making it into the 60’s.  La Salle is led by Ramon Galloway who will be the best athlete in this game, and will push to score 20.  I personally think Wichita State is just a little better than La Salle at the same game and will move another step closer to the Final Four.

Midwest

Louisville vs Oregon

The Cardinals are showing why they were chosen as the number 1 overall seed in the tournament.  The Pitino-led club is playing on a mission to win a championship.  Russ Smith has been actually helping Louisville instead of playing for the opponent.  On the other side, Oregon was definitely under-seeded as a 12 and came out on a mission to prove that.  Singler and Dotson lead the way for the Ducks.  This might have been a fun game in the BCS, but this one seems a little lopsided.  Louisville’s pressure trapping defense will force too many turnovers, which will lead to numerous easy opportunities for the Cardinals.  Also, Oregon hasn’t seen this much athleticism before.  I think Louisville’s mission continues.

Michigan State vs Duke

This is definitely one of the most anticipated games in the round of 16.  Just think of the matchups: Nix vs Plumlee, Payne vs Kelly, Harris vs Curry.  As a basketball fan, this game gets me hyped, even though it is a matchup of two of my least favorite teams. Even with these high level matchups, the key will come down to how Keith Appling performs.  If he can limit his turnovers, I think Michigan State will be able to stretch the Blue Devils’ defense. It will also be interesting to see how the Spartans defend Duke.  Michigan State usually benefits from the officials letting them play physical, but Duke usually benefits from the officials calling wrong looks on opponents.  Which coach will get the refs in their pocket?  Even though Coach K has been doing this longer, I think the Michigan State style of play will force the refs to lean more towards the Spartans.  Michigan State is one of the only teams that matches up well against Duke.  Personally, I think Payne will frustrate Kelly enough to let the Spartans have a chance at the end, but this game is just too close for me to call right now. As a Michigan fan, you might just be rooting for a power outage or the proverbial meteor.

South

Michigan vs Kansas

The Wolverines went from the easy upset pick in their first two games to the South regional favorite.  Man, I love how quickly the media can change their opinion.  Even if the season ends tomorrow night, just enjoy that Beilein has lead the program to being on the same athletic level as Kansas.  The Wolverines probably have even more athletes and future NBA players.  Kansas plays the exact opposite style of play as VCU, and I would imagine that they are getting sick of hearing how great Michigan is.  They lead the nation in 2 point defense, mostly because they have the best shot blocker left in the tournament (Jeff Withey).  The Jayhawks don’t force a lot of turnovers, but mostly just funnel ball handlers into the paint towards the abominable blockman.  On offense they like to get out in transition when possible, and in the half-court they use off ball screens and slashing to get to the hoop.  They also crash the offensive glass extremely well, which is where Withey is most effective in the offense.  Michigan will look to push the tempo because Mitch McGary is a much better athlete than Withey, which could tire him out or get him in foul trouble.  In the halfcourt, the Wolverines will stick with their ball screen offense to draw the mountain of a man away from the hoop. It will be very interesting to see how Kansas defends the screens because Withey is not the quickest player, so Burke should be able to get around him during a hedge. If the Jayhawks pack the middle, then Burke will have to knock down some jump shots.  Ideally, it would be nice to see Kansas hedge on the screen, because Burke should be able to get by Withey, which will open up the shooters.  The Wolverines will definitely have to shoot from long range better than they did in the first weekend, because offensive put backs, back cuts, and mid-range jump shots will be tough to come by.  If Michigan can continue to rebound the ball well and limit Withey’s presence on the defensive end, they will have a great chance at advancing, but those are two very big ifs.

Florida vs Florida Gulf Coast

FGCU was a great story last weekend.  Their style of play is really fun to watch, and I would imagine they will have a majority of the crowd in their corner tomorrow night.  The problem is that Florida is really good at playing a similar style.  The Gators won’t might scoring 80+ points.  As much as I would like to see the Gulf Coast Cinderella run continue, I think they hit a buzz-saw and will be on the wrong side of a lopsided score.