This has been a very exciting college basketball season so
far, except if you are ranked number one.
The top team has lost in 5 consecutive weeks now after Indiana choked
away a win at Illinois. If Michigan wins
on Saturday they should reclaim their spot on the targeted throne, but come
selection Sunday who will claim the four number one seeds? Many teams think they can make claims at this
point. While the conference tournaments
will help separate teams in the mix, I want to take a look at where teams
currently stand.
The NCAA will try to put the top teams in the closest
regional possible, which could leave the last one seed at a significant disadvantage.
The four regionals this season are:
East: Washington DC
Midwest: Indianapolis
South: Arlington
West: Los Angeles
The eleven teams that can play themselves into a one seed
are (in order):
Michigan 21-2
Duke 20-2
Indiana 20-3
Florida 18-3
Gonzaga 22-2
Arizona 20-2
Kansas 19-3
Michigan State 19-4
Syracuse 19-3
Louisville 19-4
Miami 18-3
Michigan
Losses: @ Ohio State and @ Indiana
Quality Wins: Pittsburgh, Kansas State, NC State, @
Minnesota, @ Illinois, Ohio State
Their two losses aren’t even close to being considered
bad. In fact, the Indiana loss actually
bumped Michigan up in the RPI standings. The Kansas State and Pittsburgh wins
are looking better since both are looking to be a top 4 seed. Michigan still has time to separate from the
pack with games against Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State twice, plus the B1G
tournament that could see a semi-final matchup of Final Four contenders.
Duke
Losses: @ NC State and @ Miami
Quality Wins: Kentucky, Minnesota, VCU, Louisville, Ohio
State, NC State
Losing to the two teams without Ryan Kelly is not
concerning, until you look at the scores.
Duke lost by 27 points to Miami in a game where the deficit was over 30
for most of the 2nd half.
Duke is a completely different team without Kelly, and if he is not 100%
before the ACC tournament the selection committee should take it into
account. The ACC is extremely weak this
season so Duke has a good chance of winning all of their remaining games, and a
2 loss ACC champion will always get a one seed.
Indiana
Losses: Butler, Wisconsin, @ Illinois
Quality Wins: Georgetown, Minnesota, Michigan State,
Michigan
Indiana is a completely different team away from Assembly
Hall. They have struggled on neutral
courts and true road games. When they
are clicking on all cylinders like they were against Michigan State or Michigan
they are one of the top 3 teams in the country, but NCAA tournament games are
not played in Bloomington. Indiana is at
a slight disadvantage in the B1G right now since they are the only contender to
lose at home. Like Michigan the Hoosiers
still have a lot of games to separate from the pack again.
Florida
Losses: @ Arizona, Kansas State, @ Arkansas
Quality Wins: Wisconsin, Missouri, Ole Miss
The Gators were picking up dominant wins in the limp SEC
until the traveled to Fayetteville and got blasted by an average Arkansas team
that didn’t even register as a quality win for Michigan. It is definitely the worst loss of the top
four teams right now. The problem with
Florida is nobody really knows how good they are. The moron Digger Phelps picks them to win the
national title, while I think they are overrated and would struggle to finish
in the top 4 of the Big Ten. The Gators
should be able to win out, which a 3 loss team will be hard to keep off the
number one line.
Gonzaga
Losses: Illinois, @ Butler
Quality Wins: Kansas State, @ Oklahoma State
The Zags have finished their toughest tests and have come
through pretty well. They look like a
legitimate good team, but since they play in a mid-major conference they should
end with 2 losses. If Michigan and
Indiana get beat up in the Big Ten, and each has 4+ losses, Gonzaga could sneak
in and grab the last number 1 seed.
Arizona
Losses: @ Oregon, UCLA
Quality Wins: Florida, Miami, San Diego State
If you have read previous posts you know that I am not that
high on the Wildcats. Arizona plays in a
terrible Pac-12 and should have 2 more losses.
They do have 3 impressive wins on the resume though, and if they can
roll through the remaining schedule and conference tournament unscathed they
will likely jump Gonzaga in the selection committee’s eyes.
Kansas
Losses: Michigan State, Oklahoma State, @ TCU
Quality Wins: @ Ohio State, @ Kansas State
The Jayhawks were on everyone’s bracket as a one seed, and
likely to stay close to home in Arlington, but then they lose at home to an
average Oklahoma State team and a horrible TCU team. Do you realize that TCS is far worse in any
computer rankings than any 16 seed the past 5 years? This likely is the biggest upset of the
entire year and a very bad loss for Kansas. They will likely need to win the
rest of their games and get some help from teams above them to get back in the
one seed picture.
Michigan State
Losses: Connecticut, @ Miami, @ Minnesota, @ Indiana
Quality Wins: Kansas, Ohio State, @ Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota
The Spartans have a lot of quality wins on the board
already, and their only questionable loss is in a game played in Germany to kick
off the season. The reason I put
Michigan State at the top of the four loss teams (and some with 3 losses) is
because they have the most opportunities to collect quality wins. If Michigan State somehow manages to get to
selection Sunday with 6 losses or fewer it will be very hard to keep them from
a number one seed. The Spartans have
games remaining against Indiana, Ohio State, Wisconsin, two against Michigan,
plus 3 potential big wins in the conference tournament.
Syracuse
Losses: Temple, @ Villanova, @ Pittsburgh
Quality Wins: San Diego State, Louisville, Cincinnati
The Orange have been up and down this season. The Big East’s hopes of getting a number 1
seed this season have come down to Syracuse and Louisville. At this point it would likely require a
strong finish and a conference tournament championship to move into the number
1 seed discussion.
Louisville
Losses: Duke, @ Syracuse, @ Villanova, @ Georgetown
Quality Wins: Missouri, @ Memphis, Kentucky, Pittsburgh
The Cardinals definitely have played tougher competition
than Syracuse so far this year, which isn’t a surprise. The loss at Georgetown could come back and be
a deciding factor at keeping them at a 2 seed or lower. If Louisville can beat Syracuse at home, and
make a run in Madison Square Garden, the selection committee always likes the
Big East team with momemtum. It is more
likely that the Cardinals are playing for a 2 seed at this point.
Miami
Losses: @ Florida Gulf Coast University, Arizona, Indiana
State
Quality Wins: Michigan State, Duke, @ NC State
I thought I would include the Hurricanes in this discussion
since they are in the top 10 of the rankings, and they play in one of the worst
ACC conferences in the past 20 seasons.
Miami has a real chance at being regular season champions with 1 loss or
fewer, and if they can follow it up with a tournament run they could be near
the top 5. I personally think the
Hurricanes are below average and have benefitted from a terrible schedule, but
the selection committee likes the ACC champions usually.
Right now it looks like Michigan is in the best spot to get
one of the top seeds, but they will be in a dog fight with Indiana for the
Midwest regional. Neither of these teams
will want to be placed out west. Duke
should be able to wrap up the East regional because of their easy remaining
schedule and Ryan Kelly likely coming back before the tournament. This will leave Florida, Kansas, and Indiana
fighting for the South regional in Texas.
At this point I think Kansas has an uphill battle to get a number one
seed after the loss to TCU. Indiana or Michigan
should not be punished for being the second best team in their region, so I think
whichever team does not get the Midwest should be placed in the South. This will leave Florida, Gonzaga, and Arizona
in the discussion for the West regional.
Both Arizona and Florida will have an advantage for just playing in a “major”
conference, even though both the Pac12 and SEC are on par with the WCC. I definitely think Florida is better than the
Wildcats at this point, and they shouldn’t lose for the rest of the
season.
My four number one seeds are:
Midwest: Michigan
East: Duke
South: Indiana
West: Florida
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