As Ann Arbor was hit with 4+ inches of snow and slush, and
650 local schools are closed, it made me think; baseball is almost here. The
Tigers have one of the least tenuous Spring Trainings since the majority of the
25 man roster has been decided. However,
in my first post about the reigning AL Champion Detroit Tigers I would like to
look at the current roster and try to make sense of the decisions to be made
before opening the season in 33 days. There
are three positions that the staff will be trying to finalize before taking on
the Twins on April 1st: the 5th starter, left field, and
closer.
Detroit came into 2013 with 6 starting pitchers with
experience in the major leagues. We know
that Verlander, Fister, Scherzer, and Sanchez have secured the first 4
spots. The back end of the rotation now
will come down to a battle between 24 year old veteran Rick Porcello and 23
year old youngster Drew Symly. There are
decent arguments to make on both sides.
With Porcello, the staff knows what to expect from the sinker ball
pitcher, he will be a durable, definition of average starting pitcher that will
get you 10-13 wins. He has pitched with
the Tigers longer than anyone not named JV and would likely make most MLB
rotations as the 5th starter.
The problems with Rick are well documented; he doesn’t have an out pitch. Even though his strike-out rate increased
last year, he will struggle to get over 5 Ks/9.
Porcello is also a ground ball pitcher, and in case you didn’t realize,
the Tiger infielders are full of trees. Drew
Smyly, on the other hand, has a much larger upside. He would give Detroit a much needed left
handed starter, and during his stint with the big club last season Smyly showed
an encouraging strike out rate. There are
still the questions about his health; will he be able to stay off the DL all
season? I really like Smyly’s ceiling
and the fact that he is a southpaw, but if Porcello remains a Tiger it will be
hard to take him out of the rotation.
Personally, I think Porcello will be on the opening day roster as the 5th
starter while Smyly will be moved to AAA to get some consistent work as a
starting pitcher. But, I also think that
the sinker-baller will be on the trading block all season and will be moved
before the trade deadline.
From all reports that I have read it seems that left field
is a wide open race right now between Andy Dirks, Quentin Berry, Brennan
Boesch, Jeff Kobernus, Nick Castellanos, and Avisail Garcia. It looks like the position will be platooned
all year. This should eliminate
Castellanos and Garcia to allow them to continue to develop by playing every
day in the minors. This will leave 3
left and 1 right handed hitter. I think
Andy Dirks is guaranteed a spot, but the Detroit staff does not believe that he
can stay healthy for a full season. So,
the race for two spots will come down to Berry, Boesch, and Kobernus. With Boesch currently out with an oblique
injury, it would seem that he is trailing the other two players. At 27 years old I think we know what Berry
can bring to a baseball team, he is a below average fielder with great speed to
cover up some of those mistakes. Quentin’s
most appealing characteristics are his ability to play every outfield position,
sacrifice bunting, and being the best base stealer on the team. Jeff Kobernus is a special situation. The 24 year old does not have any experience
over AA ball, but he is a Rule 5 player.
This means that if he is not kept on Detroit’s 25 man roster all season
he will be sent back to his original team (Washington). The problem is that Detroit seems to really
like Kobernus as Infante’s replacement at 2nd base, so they might
have to find a some place on the Tigers for him. Kobernus brings a lot of speed, which the
Tigers desperately needed at times last year.
He also is more of a utility player and can fill in at 2nd or
shortstop. Now the only question is if
he can hit, so the 24 year old will be seeing a lot of spring training plate
appearances. I think Dirks will be the
opening day starter with Berry and Kobernus both making the 25 man roster.
After Jose Valverde’s horrible postseason last year the
Tigers were forced to not pick up the club option. Instead of over-spending in free agency on a
known closer, the management wants to roll with Bruce Rondon. At this point in the season, the job is
Rondon’s to lose. He will likely be
given until the end of April to prove whether he is ready for the big leagues
yet. Rondon has a blazing fast ball that
can hit triple digits, but at this point is generally considered a one pitch
pitcher. He also struggles with location
and has a tendency to walk too many hitters.
Giving people free bases in the 9th inning is a recipe for
disaster; one that we have seen get past Tiger closers in trouble. If he is able to calm down and locate better
there is a good chance that Rondon will be successful anchoring Detroit’s
bullpen. If he falls back into old
habits and his walk rate stays around 4.5/9IP then he will likely be a mainstay
in Toledo for another season. If the
Tigers have to move away from Rondon, the next likely choice will be Joaquim
Benoit. Detroit has 3 pitchers with past
closing experience or could choose to try out the electric arms of Villareal or
Alburquerque. I think Rondon will start
as the closer, but it will be a work in progress throughout the season and
could cause some headaches for fans.
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