The battle for the state of Michigan is here again, and the Spartans are
favored again.
Growing up in farm land
most of my friends were State fans, so I have had a growing hatred of anything
green and white for nearly 27 years.
Even
with being around Sparties longer than Buckeyes, these rivalries have different
meanings. Yes, I dislike all four colors and both schools, but Michigan is expected
to beat Michigan State.
So the winning
feeling is generally just a deep sense of relief, while a victory over OSU brings
out the joy. Like Mgoblog stated today: “The inferiority complex (or little
brother syndrome) is bred out of inferiority.” Which sums up Michigan State in
exactly every aspect. Alright, enough ranting, lets get to the preview.
Michigan State Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
The Spartans are currently using a 2 back system.
Jeremy Langford gets the majority of the
carries, while impressive freshman Delton Williams gets the short yardage
calls. Langford has been improving with each week, but his overall stats are
just average.
Williams comes in and does
a really good job falling forward (something that Derrick Green cannot claim).
The Spartan offensive line is average at run
blocking.
Even with playing a subpar
schedule so far, Michigan State have only averaged 5 yards per carry against
Indiana.
They do a good job of not
losing yards (like Michigan tends to) and getting 3-4 yards with each run.
With Michigan State’s base offense, the
Wolverines will be able to play their base 4-3 defense which is much more successful.
Look for Quinton Washington to be on the
field for the majority of snaps, and for him to have a big game.
Michigan’s defense is built to defend this
style of offense.
I think Desmond
Morgan, Quinton Washington, Jake Ryan, and Frank Clark have a big game bottling
up Langford and Williams. Advantage Michigan.
Michigan State Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
The Spartans continue to cycle through a never ending list of receivers, but
with little success. Bennie Fowler just dropped another pass. Keith Mumphrey
still has a cornerback in his back pocket. Aaron Burbridge has been a
disappointment thus far. Tony Lippett is just average on his best day. That
leaves Macgarrett Kings, which happens to be the Spartans top receiver by
default. He has been the most consistent pass catcher of the bunch, but doesn’t
have elite speed for the slot or overwhelming size.
Tight end Josiah Price is starting get more
involved in the passing game, but is not as talented as what Penn State or
Indiana presented. Like mentioned earlier, the Michigan defense is built to defend
this type of offense. It plays right into Coach Mattison’s wheelhouse. However,
the Wolverine secondary has optioned to play a lot of soft zone coverage this
season.
The theory is that most teams
cannot pick up 5-10 yards per play all the way down the field without making a
mistake. The problem here is that Michigan State runs a very vanilla offense
that does not make many mistakes.
They
will be thrilled to take the 5-10 yards if it is given to them.
I expect Coach Mattison to blitz a lot more
tomorrow, especially because all reports point to Jake Ryan being 100%.
With this added pressure, Connor Cook will be
flushed out the pocket where his confidence and mechanics break down. I expect
him to throw at least one interception.
Michigan is built to stop this passing attack, but the question will be
will scheme put the players in the best situation to succeed?
I think it will. Advantage Michigan.
Michigan Rush Offense vs Michigan State Rush Defense
Whew this has a large probability of being extremely ugly. The Spartans have
one of the best rush defenses in the nation, and Michigan hasn’t proven it can
run consistently on anyone.
I think
Coach Borges will try to use runs from under center to try to set up the deep
play action pass, but these runs actually have a negative percentage chance of
working. Bad things happen when Michigan tries to run from these formations. However,
this is a trade-off because Devin has been very effective in the play-action passing
game from under center and Michigan likes to run a lot of QB waggle plays. Michigan
will likely split the formations between under center and shotgun, and in order
for the standard play action passes to have any success the Wolverines will
need to sacrifice Fitz Toussaint to the brick wall of death, which is the
Spartan defense. Michigan should be able to find some success while running out
of shotgun, either with a running back or Gardner. Devin’s scrambling ability
is good enough to be able to freeze even the best defenses.
I don’t think Fitz will crack 3 yards per
carry in this game, so how many times Coach Borges is willing to feed him to Max
Bullough is still unknown. Hopefully Fitz does not top 15 carries, and out of
those most come from shotgun.
Also,
Michigan is very scared of getting Devin hurt or worn out from too many rush
attempts, but he will need to carry the ball 10+ times for the Wolverines to
have any consistency moving the ball. I could see the Spartan defense breaking
down for one play, where Devin runs for a 20+ yard gain but the rest of the
game should be locked down pretty tightly. Advantage Michigan State.
Michigan Pass Offense vs Michigan State Pass Defense
Like most games, this section is the big X factor.
The Wolverines have a lot of playmakers in
this area, but have been hampered by inexcusable turnovers and drops at times. The
Spartans secondary plays aggressive man to man defense, and will test Gardner’s
trust in his receivers. It will be important for him to not lock onto Jeremy
Gallon.
The glaring advantage here is
Devin Funchess now at wide receiver. Nobody on the Spartan roster can cover a 6’5”
freak athlete one on one. Funchess’ time at tight end should prepare him for
the physicality he will see in Spartan Stadium.
Gardner will need to find him early and often to see if it forces Michigan
State to double cover him. If Narduzzi is forced out of his base defense, it
would leave Gallon alone on the outside and could really open up the middle of
the field for Jake Butt, Drew Dileo, or Jehu Chesson.
It is doubtful that Narduzzi ever leaves his
base quarter defense, which should allow both Devins to connect
frequently.
Of course, Michigan is also
able to just self-implode at any minute which would make this game unwinnable.
It will be interesting to see how the young
interior offensive line holds up to the many different blitzes that Michigan State
will call. I don’t think Magnuson will be too successful under center, but is
quick enough to buy Devin time in the shotgun.
I also expect tomorrow to be a coming out party for Kyle Bosch. It is
very impressive that a true freshman is seeing playing time on the offensive
line, which I am taking to believe he is the best guard in nearly 10 years at Michigan.
Glasgow will be really tested at center. The Spartans, under Narduzzi, have been
known for double A gap blitzes and jumping the Wolverine snap count. The
Michigan offense needs to find a way to vary the timing somehow, or two
linebackers will be beating the ball to Gardner.
If the offensive line can hold up at all,
Devin should be able to gain enough confidence to mirror his Notre Dame performance.
However, if he is running for his life all
game, expect some incredibly horrible turnovers from the new 98. Advantage Push
The big question in my mind is how will the offensive game plan look
tomorrow. It seems likely that Michigan will try to spread out the Spartan
defense, but if Gardner runs into early trouble like he has in most games will
Coach Borges retreat into turtle mode? Devin needs to be unleashed. Yes, he can
make some of the worst decisions and turnovers that I have ever seen a college
quarterback make, but he is also capable of making some of the most incredible
passes and escapes. At this point in the season the Wolverines need to roll
with him, and just let him go. It is the only way that all of Devin’s potential
will be unlocked, even if it comes with some ugly speed bumps along the
way.
On paper Michigan is the better
team, but they have proven the ability to lose to anyone. Michigan State is the
more consistent squad, with the Spartans you know what you are getting: a good
to elite defense with a game managing offense. I want to be optimistic about this
Wolverine team, but I just can’t after the Penn State debacle.
Michigan State 17 Michigan -5
