Must See Class A Districts

Class A has two teams that are the outright favorites to win a state championship (Romulus and Detroit Pershing), but the class is loaded with quality teams that could challenge the heavyweights.

Being a PSL team, Pershing will have a tough road just to get out of districts.  The Doughboys will have to play Martin Luther King in the district opener, then Detroit Western International, and then most likely Cass Tech.  While Pershing is better than any team in this group, playing 3 games in one week could wear them down and give Cass Tech a chance to avenge their earlier 20 point loss that gave the Doughboys the PSL title.

Rochester Adams has a chance to wrap up an undefeated regular season, and its reward will be to play in one of the toughest districts.  Adams will likely be matched up against Clarkston or Lake Orion for the district crown.  Clarkston has had a lot of playoff success in recent years, and will be a tough out for any team.  The winner of this group should be able to make the semi-finals.

The last district that I want to highlight involves one of the state’s biggest rivalries.  Saginaw Arthur Hill will likely meet up with Saginaw High in the district final for their grudge match. Each team has won a game against the other this season.  These two know each other so well, and will be playing to keep a deep playoff run alive.  Either team is talented enough to make the championship game, it is just a shame that they have to meet so early.

Must See Class B Districts

It looks like Class B is Detroit Country Day’s to lose, but there is a reason that you still play the games.   This also happens to be the class that has the best district grouping, so even if the champion is likely known Class B will still be a fun ride. 

The district in Berrien Springs will pair two of the top 5 teams in the opening round.  Dowagiac will face last year’s state runner up, Stevensville Lakeshore, on Monday night.  Lakeshore had every major contributor returning this year, and Dowagiac is led by Northern Illinois signee Dontel Highsmith.  It should be a very intriguing game because at 6’2” Highsmith is the Tiger’s tallest player, but Lakeshore has as good of size of anyone in Class B.  Stevensville plays at a slower tempo, while Dowagiac wants to get out in transition.  The winner of this game would then have to take on Benton Harbor.  While the winner will be favored in this game, it is a tougher matchup than most will have to face.  Whichever team makes it out of this district should be able to string together at least 3 more wins and make the semi-finals.

The other district to note also takes place on the west side.  Wayland Union will host 2 other teams that will be capable of advancing in the postseason.  Wyoming Godwin Heights is one of the top teams in the state, but they will be challenged by Grand Rapids South Christian and the home team.  The winner of this district should be able to advance to the Breslin to take on the winner from above.  

Must See Class C Districts

As we move up in classes you will start to see more teams worth keeping an eye on.  This year is no different.  Class C favorites include many well-known schools, but with a few new names sprinkled in. 

The first district of note will be played in Fennville.  The perennial power in Class B, Muskegon Heights, became a charter school last summer and has moved down to Class C.  The Tigers have played their usual difficult schedule, so their record might not be as impressive as other top teams in this class.  All I can say is don’t sleep on Heights.  They should matchup in the final against Saugatuck who is a solid team that has beaten up on a terrible conference.  The winner here could be poised to make a long run in this year’s playoffs.

The district played at Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian should be one of the more entertaining groups in Class C.  Grandville Calvin Christian is one of the favorites to make a Breslin run this year.  Calvin has been in this position many other years, but always has found a way to get knocked out early.  Will it happen this year when they should take on the home team in the District Final? NorthPointe Christian has a lot of underclassmen talent that has struggled throughout the season, but if they put it together in time for the post-season they could make it difficult on any Class C team coming out of the west side.

Finally, the district at Flint Beecher has three teams that would win most other Class C districts.  The home team is one of the best in the entire state, but it also includes Flint Hamady and Flint International Academy.  The winner of Hamady and International should square off against Beecher in the final.  Surprisingly, both team’s record is a bit inflated but they haven’t played each other yet.  The winner here should be a favorite to make at least a quarterfinal.

Must See Class D Districts

Thank goodness for the high school basketball postseason to take my mind off whatever that was last night (there is no way any Michigan player can convince me it was basketball).  If you are looking for the recap, it might take me a little while to complete because I am still sorting through my anger and confusion.  Anyways, the MHSAA basketball districts start next week, with the finals taking place March 23.  Each week I am going to highlight the upcoming round (districts, regionals, quarterfinals, semi-finals, and possibly even the finals).  This year it looks like most of the best games within each class will be taking place before anybody steps foot in the Breslin Center, so if you are in the area I would encourage you to check out some quality basketball.  Let’s start in Class D. 

The toughest district matchup will likely be played on Monday in a playoff opener.  Climax-Scotts will take on Mendon at Athens High School.  Currently, the defending Class D runner-ups have one loss this season, but it came at the hands of Mendon.  Climax will be looking for revenge in this game, and will try to use the distinct height advantage over the Hornets.  In the first matchup, the football power just out-toughed Climax and forced both 6’7” forwards to the perimeter all game.  The winner of this game should be looking to make a deep run in the tournament.

The second district that I would like to highlight is the one being played at Battle Creek St. Philip.  The potential district final would pair up the home team against Class D up-and-comer Kalamazoo Phoenix.  If you remember Muskegon West Michigan Christian, who won a state title three years in a row with Muskegon High leftovers, Phoenix is trying to replicate that success with Kalamazoo Public School players.  They are undersized, but will play at a level of intensity not usually found in high school basketball.  The winner of this regional will likely be rewarded against a Regional opener against the best team in Class D; congratulations.

Detroit Tiger Roster Openings

As Ann Arbor was hit with 4+ inches of snow and slush, and 650 local schools are closed, it made me think; baseball is almost here. The Tigers have one of the least tenuous Spring Trainings since the majority of the 25 man roster has been decided.  However, in my first post about the reigning AL Champion Detroit Tigers I would like to look at the current roster and try to make sense of the decisions to be made before opening the season in 33 days.   There are three positions that the staff will be trying to finalize before taking on the Twins on April 1^st: the 5^th starter, left field, and closer.

Detroit came into 2013 with 6 starting pitchers with experience in the major leagues.  We know that Verlander, Fister, Scherzer, and Sanchez have secured the first 4 spots.  The back end of the rotation now will come down to a battle between 24 year old veteran Rick Porcello and 23 year old youngster Drew Symly.  There are decent arguments to make on both sides.  With Porcello, the staff knows what to expect from the sinker ball pitcher, he will be a durable, definition of average starting pitcher that will get you 10-13 wins.  He has pitched with the Tigers longer than anyone not named JV and would likely make most MLB rotations as the 5^th starter.  The problems with Rick are well documented; he doesn’t have an out pitch.  Even though his strike-out rate increased last year, he will struggle to get over 5 Ks/9.  Porcello is also a ground ball pitcher, and in case you didn’t realize, the Tiger infielders are full of trees.  Drew Smyly, on the other hand, has a much larger upside.  He would give Detroit a much needed left handed starter, and during his stint with the big club last season Smyly showed an encouraging strike out rate.  There are still the questions about his health; will he be able to stay off the DL all season?  I really like Smyly’s ceiling and the fact that he is a southpaw, but if Porcello remains a Tiger it will be hard to take him out of the rotation.  Personally, I think Porcello will be on the opening day roster as the 5^th starter while Smyly will be moved to AAA to get some consistent work as a starting pitcher.  But, I also think that the sinker-baller will be on the trading block all season and will be moved before the trade deadline.

From all reports that I have read it seems that left field is a wide open race right now between Andy Dirks, Quentin Berry, Brennan Boesch, Jeff Kobernus, Nick Castellanos, and Avisail Garcia.  It looks like the position will be platooned all year.  This should eliminate Castellanos and Garcia to allow them to continue to develop by playing every day in the minors.  This will leave 3 left and 1 right handed hitter.  I think Andy Dirks is guaranteed a spot, but the Detroit staff does not believe that he can stay healthy for a full season.  So, the race for two spots will come down to Berry, Boesch, and Kobernus.  With Boesch currently out with an oblique injury, it would seem that he is trailing the other two players.  At 27 years old I think we know what Berry can bring to a baseball team, he is a below average fielder with great speed to cover up some of those mistakes.  Quentin’s most appealing characteristics are his ability to play every outfield position, sacrifice bunting, and being the best base stealer on the team.  Jeff Kobernus is a special situation.  The 24 year old does not have any experience over AA ball, but he is a Rule 5 player.  This means that if he is not kept on Detroit’s 25 man roster all season he will be sent back to his original team (Washington).  The problem is that Detroit seems to really like Kobernus as Infante’s replacement at 2^nd base, so they might have to find a some place on the Tigers for him.  Kobernus brings a lot of speed, which the Tigers desperately needed at times last year.  He also is more of a utility player and can fill in at 2^nd or shortstop.  Now the only question is if he can hit, so the 24 year old will be seeing a lot of spring training plate appearances.  I think Dirks will be the opening day starter with Berry and Kobernus both making the 25 man roster. 

After Jose Valverde’s horrible postseason last year the Tigers were forced to not pick up the club option.  Instead of over-spending in free agency on a known closer, the management wants to roll with Bruce Rondon.  At this point in the season, the job is Rondon’s to lose.  He will likely be given until the end of April to prove whether he is ready for the big leagues yet.  Rondon has a blazing fast ball that can hit triple digits, but at this point is generally considered a one pitch pitcher.  He also struggles with location and has a tendency to walk too many hitters.  Giving people free bases in the 9^th inning is a recipe for disaster; one that we have seen get past Tiger closers in trouble.  If he is able to calm down and locate better there is a good chance that Rondon will be successful anchoring Detroit’s bullpen.  If he falls back into old habits and his walk rate stays around 4.5/9IP then he will likely be a mainstay in Toledo for another season.  If the Tigers have to move away from Rondon, the next likely choice will be Joaquim Benoit.  Detroit has 3 pitchers with past closing experience or could choose to try out the electric arms of Villareal or Alburquerque.  I think Rondon will start as the closer, but it will be a work in progress throughout the season and could cause some headaches for fans.

B1G Update

The Big Ten continues to wear down even the best teams.  Michigan State was playing like one of the best teams in the entire country, but went 0-2 last week.  The bad news for Spartan fans is that the games against Indiana and Ohio State were only the first two of their grueling 4 game stretch.  The Indiana win in East Lansing will likely be seen as the best victory from any conference team this season.  The Hoosiers now have a 2 game lead in the loss column with only 4 games remaining.  Michigan got back on track with a comfortable win over streaking Illinois, and with the other top 10 losses last week the Wolverines kept their small hopes alive for a number 1 seed.  Minnesota and Northwestern are going the other direction, and in a hurry.  The Golden Gophers still are extremely talented, but will need to win a few more games to be an NCAA tournament lock. 

1.       Indiana (no change)

The Hoosiers only had one game last week, and it was a big one.  They went into the Breslin and won for the first time since most of their players were even born.  While some people can say Michigan State blew the game down the stretch, Indiana’s experience came through and pulled out the toughest win of the season.  Indiana could play two trap games this week with a trip to Minnesota and hosting Iowa.  While the Gophers are still a likely tournament team, a win over the number one team in the nation would make them a lock.  Then with the Hawkeyes losing to Nebraska over the weekend, they are on the wrong side of the bubble and need a signature win to be in the conversation again.  I expect the Hoosiers to be focused and win both games, but Illinois was a team heading in the wrong direction but mustered a huge comeback to take down Indiana on their home floor.  All I am saying is that stranger things have happened.

2.       Michigan State (no change)

I am keeping the Spartans in the number 2 slot this week. I know they had a tough week going 0-2, but it was a similar stretch that Michigan just went through and we all saw how that went.  Michigan State is still a very good team, and having a week off before heading to the Crisler Center will be huge.  Tom Izzo does some of his best work when he has a reason to get after his team.  Even if the Spartans finish 4^th or 5^th in the Big Ten, they will still be on my short list for Final Four favorites.

3.       Michigan (no change)

The Wolverines finally were able to get a week off to get back to fundamentals and get some rest.  The freshmen definitely looked more energetic and fresh, which is bad news for opposing teams.  It will be important for Jordan Morgan to continue to get back to 100%.  The Wolverines head to Happy Valley to look to build upon their 8 point win over the Nittany Lions last week.  Then next weekend Michigan welcomes the Spartans back home for the grudge match after they were embarrassed in East Lansing a few weeks ago.  With another strong week Michigan has a chance to move up the rankings and even still have an outside shot at sharing the regular season title.  

4.       Wisconsin (no change)

The Badgers still play ugly basketball, and they still have the easiest remaining schedule of any top 5 team.  If you can’t tell I am still upset over their prayer victory over Michigan, and I don’t respect this team away from the Kohl Center.  Wisconsin should roll to two more wins this week as they make their rounds of the B1G cellar.  Michigan will need to avoid a tie with the Badgers since they would own the tie breaker and move the Wolverines down in the standings further for the B1G tournament.

5.       Ohio State (no change)

The Buckeyes are close to be moving back into the 4^th position with big home wins over Minnesota and Michigan State.  The Buckeyes got a huge lift from Aaron Craft on the offensive end, and if it can continue Ohio State could make some noise when they travel to Bloomington or in the conference tournament.

6.       Illinois (no change)

The Illini were one of the conference’s hottest teams heading into Ann Arbor on Sunday, and it looked like their good fortune was going to continue after the first half.  Instead they were out-toughed by a Wolverines squad that has been criticized as being soft.  The good thing for Illinois is that they have a favorable week coming up which should help them continue to move up the bracket.  They could be playing for a 6 seed, which seems crazy when they started 2-7 in the conference.

7.       Minnesota (up 1)

The Gophers are still on the decline, especially after back to back blowout road losses to Iowa and Ohio State.  If the Gophers have any mental toughness and pride they will need a strong showing at home tonight against the Hoosiers.  If they fold early again and lose by 20+ they could be on the outside looking in come selection Sunday.  Minnesota is just too talented to be slumping like this, and I personally think Tubby Smith’s seat could be a little warm if he cannot turn this team around in the next 3 weeks. 

8.       Iowa (down 1)

I know the Hawkeyes just punched Minnesota in the mouth a week ago, but then they bounced back with a deflating loss to Nebraska.  It was a loss that most likely sealed their fate of becoming an NCAA tournament team in 2013.  Iowa still does have resume booster games with Indiana and Illinois, and they will likely need to win both to even be in contention for a bid. 

9.       Purdue (no change)

Purdue is still hanging at 9^th in the Big Ten.  They aren’t bad enough to move down, but can’t put together a consistent 40 minutes to pass Iowa.  The Boilermakers picked up a huge win over the depleted Wildcats.  Purdue will travel to Iowa and Wisconsin where they could look to pick up one win, for Michigan fans let’s hope its against the Badgers.  

10.   Nebraska (up 1)

The Cornhuskers move up because of their surprising win over Iowa and because Northwestern is likely the worst conference team at the moment.  Nebraska plays Wisconsin and Illinois this week, so it looks like two more losses for the Huskers.  

11.   Northwestern (down 1)

The Wildcats are terrible right now and are limping to the finish line.  If they aren’t careful Northwestern will be the best chance for Penn State to pick up a conference win.

12.   Penn State (no change)

I can continue to say the same thing about the Nittany Lions; they play hard and are getting closer to picking up their first conference win.  Lets just hope it isn’t tomorrow night against Michigan.

Illinois Recap

I was lucky enough to join the Maize Rage for Sunday’s game against Illinois, and it was quite an experience.  I just remember back when I had student tickets and couldn’t get friends to come with me for the free games, and now you have to show up early and wait in line if you want to be in the lower level at all.  Michigan started the game looking like a team that just had a week off.  Look back to the Purdue game and the Wolverines started the same way.  Once the halftime buzzer rang, the Michigan coaching staff made all the needed halftime adjustments and the maize and blue cruised to a 13 point win. 

The first thing that I took away from the game is that the young players looked fresh again.  Glenn Robinson III had a spring in his jump again and actually attacked the basket off the dribble a few times.  He is still hesitant on taking jump shots, especially after air balling his first attempt.  It will be important for him to continue to stretch the floor from the power forward position.  Spike Albrecht impressed in his limited time on the floor, but I was the most impressed with Caris LeVert’s intensity on the defensive end of the floor.  He was assigned to Brandon Paul during his playing time and his length really limited Paul’s impact.  Caris was able to get into passing lanes, deflect balls, create turnovers that led to easy baskets, and he also knocked down open shots.  This was his best overall game of the season, but if Michigan can begin to expect this output from the bench they will be very tough to beat.  While Jordan Morgan was clearly not 100% yet he is looking closer to himself.  He showed why he is by far the best ball screen defender on the team, as he understands when to hedge and when to rotate.  Michigan outscored Illinois by 28 points in Morgan’s 17 minutes, but more importantly when number 52 came off the bench in both halves he was key to stopping an Illini run. 

The defensive performance was still struggling in the first 12 minutes of the game, but then the Wolverines looked as good as they have in 3 weeks. Like I mentioned earlier, Jordan Morgan had a big hand in the defensive turnaround but I was even more impressed with the defensive rotations.  In the final 28 minutes of the game Illinois really struggled to get any dribble penetration, which has been the biggest struggle for Michigan lately.  Illinois collected 6 offensive rebounds in the first 12 minutes, but once the rotating improved to cut off any penetration, the Illini were held to two offensive rebounds for the rest of the game (none in the last 20 minutes). By keeping ball handlers out of the paint it allows Michigan’s post players to stay with their man, which ultimately leads to a clean box out and defensive rebound. I will be interesting to see how the defensive performance improves against Penn State, since they shredded Michigan for 71 points just a few days ago.  Most of their damage was done by dribble penetration.

Offensively, Michigan executed extremely well in transition which was started by long rebounds or turnovers.  Trey Burke and GRIII ran the break flawlessly.  Keeping the Wolverines out of transition is the key to slowing down their efficient offense, but how many teams in the entire country can really do that?  The bad news is that 3 of them are in this conference (Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin).  The Michigan offense struggled at times in the half court sets, and had to settle for too many long jump shots.  The post presence is still not an effective part of the offense yet, which will need to improve a little before the NCAA tournament.  I am not saying that Morgan, McGary, Horford, and Biefeldt have to combine for 25 points and 20 rebounds a game, but they should be getting to double digits in both between them.  Luckily for Michigan they have Trey Burke running the offense, and Illinois could not keep him out of the lane.  At times it looked like Burke was toying with the defense, which led to 26 points, 8 assists, and just one turnover.  Just another day at the office for my pick for Player of the Year.

Looking ahead Michigan travels to Happy Valley to take on the winless Nittany Lions.  Penn State kept the game closer than expected last week in Ann Arbor, so the Wolverines should not be overlooking their opponent.  I will be looking to see how much the defense has improved since their last meeting because Penn State guards should not be getting into the lane at will, nor should Penn State post players accumulate uncontested layups. I also want to see the half-court offense improve, which will happen if Tim Hardaway Jr can find his shot again and the post players can get some points in the pick and roll game.