B1G Update

It was an interesting week in the conference as last week's top two teams lost.  Since the Hoosiers bounced back with a big win in Columbus, I kept them at number one.  Michigan floundered away opportunities in Madison, so I moved them below the Spartans.  Tuesday night should be exciting!

1.       Indiana (up 1)

The Hoosiers choked away a late lead against Illinois, but then bounced back with a dominating performance in Columbus.  If Michigan would have taken care of its business in Madison they would be on top of the rankings again.  The Hoosiers next two games are at home and against the bottom of the conference.  Indiana should be 11-2 heading to East Lansing. 

2.       Michigan State (up 1)

I moved the Spartans up a spot because of how they have improved, but more because of Michigan’s mini-slide with Morgan unable to play.  This spot could be cleared up tomorrow night in East Lansing.  Gary Harris is flying under the radar around the conference but has turned into one of the best jump shooters.  He has to realize he is far too athletic to be kept as ‘just a shooter.’

3.       Michigan (down 1)

Michigan is almost through their 4 game gauntlet, and they have done it without their most experienced player.  The Big Ten regular season title might be slipping away while Jordan Morgan is injured, but the Wolverines should be very tough to beat in the B1G & NCAA tournaments.

4.       Ohio State (no change)

Ohio State finished up the toughest week with a 0-2 record.  The Buckeyes fought hard in Ann Arbor, only to fall in overtime, and then they caught Indiana coming off of a loss.  I really thought Ohio State would have a good chance at beating the Hoosiers, until Illinois pulled the upset, and I knew the Hoosiers were going to be focused.  Ohio State has to travel to Madison this week which could keep the Buckeye’s small regular season title hopes alive.

5.       Wisconsin (no change)

The Badgers somehow went 2-0 this past week; winning both games in overtime.  However, Wisconsin should have lost both contests.  I am very frustrated with Bo Ryan’s style of play, and am hoping that Michigan gets a rematch in the conference tournament.  If Wisconsin goes 2-0 (@ Minnesota and home against OSU) for another week I will be forced to at least move them up a spot.

6.       Illinois (up 3)

Illinois had one of the best weeks of any B1G team.  Their tournament hopes were dwindling, and they found a way to beat Indiana and travel to Minnesota to double their conference win total in one week. If the Illini can shoot the ball well, they are a very tough team to beat.  Illinois should keep the momentum going this week as they manage to avoid any of the top 5 teams.

7.       Minnesota (down 1)

The Gophers managed to lose to Michigan State and Illinois this week.  If the Gophers aren’t careful they are going to find themselves on the bubble quickly. Tubby Smith’s team will need a bounce back win at home against Wisconsin this week. 

8.       Iowa (down 1)

Poor Iowa, they are so close to being a top 6 team but are moving closer to the cellar.  They will need to start winning some of these close games if they are going to move up again.

9.       Purdue (down 1)

We know who Purdue is right now, a good defensive team that is lacking playmakers (I bet Painter is wishing he found a scholarship for GRIII).  The Boilers didn’t do anything wrong this week to move down, they just got jumped by the suddenly hot Illinois team.

10.   Northwestern (no change)

Northwestern is still Northwestern.

11.   Nebraska (no change)

At least Nebraska isn’t Penn State.

12.   Penn State (no change)

Nebraska beat them by double digits, so the gap grows between the Huskers and Nittany Lions.      

Wisconsin Recap

If you happened to catch Michigan in action on Saturday against Wisconsin, I am sorry.  The game was frustrating from start to finish.  It finally ended with Michigan on the wrong side of a 65-62 outcome.  It was the most disappointing game of the season, so far, since it was the first loss that the young Wolverines gave away.  The last 5 minutes of regulation and into overtime was filled with missed lay-ups, bad coaching decisions, inexperienced players, and horrible officiating.  If you didn’t find time to watch the game, you are now getting a feel for the over-arching theme. 

It was the most physical game that Michigan has played this season, but somehow at the end of regulation both teams had 3 fouls to give.  It seems impossible that the officiating was more even in Bloomington the weekend before than it was in Madison.  Also, I have had enough of Dan Dakich announcing games that I want to watch.  If I had to hear him say how incredible the referee crew was one more time, my tv might have had a remote thrown through it.  The loss falls solely on Michigan’s shoulders, but the guys in stripes did little to help.  I don’t want to spend this entire post about all of the bad calls, but I would like to give a few examples.  Early in the 2^nd half Nik Stauskas drove baseline to have the ball bounce off of a Badger laying on the floor.  The ball bounced backwards out of bounds, but was given to Wisconsin.  It takes some talent to dribble the ball off your own foot, and have it carom in the opposite direction.  Later in the half, Stauskas pulled down a defensive rebound.  When he is looking for the outlet pass he is karate-chopped across both forearms by Beregren, and the ball falls out of bounds.  Not only did the baseline ref not call a foul on the self-defense move, he awarded the ball back to the Badgers.  Bo Ryan admitted that Wisconsin was trying to foul on the Michigan’s last offensive possession in regulation, they are hacking at Trey Burke and eventually hit Hardaway’s elbow during this shot release.  Somehow the ball went in anyways, so it makes the shot even more impressive.  Finally, McGary found himself on another breakaway, after a steal, and Beregren hit him so hard it was audible on the broadcast.  McGary missed the lay-up when he should have dunked the ball, but he should have been on the line for a 3 point play.  One thing is for sure, Michigan will not be at such a disadvantage, from the officials, in the NCAA tournament.   

Michigan struggled to execute on offense, which allowed the Badgers to hang around the entire game.    On the defensive end the Wolverines surrendered too many open shot attempts with the shot clock dwindling.  Coach Beilein often says you need to play 37 seconds of defense against Wisconsin, but on Saturday Michigan usually only made it to 33.  The two freshman starters did not have a good game, which makes it 3 for 3 in big road games this season.  It looks like GRIII has hit a wall and is playing on fumes lately.  He might be the player most affected with Morgan being injured.  At this point, if a team takes away Michigan’s transition game they have effectively removed Robinson as a weapon. It seems unlikely to have the Wolverines start to run plays for GRIII at this point in the season.  Stauskas was on the wrong side of a few bad calls on Saturday, but he did manage to put up 4 extremely good three point attempts, only to make 1.  He seems to be a completely different player on the road.  McGary continues to improve with each game in a Michigan uniform.  Against Wisconsin, Mitch unveiled a 10-15 foot jump shot.  If this becomes a weapon that the opponent is forced to guard, it will open up the lane for Burke to get to the rim.  Also, Hardaway continued to be locked in during the Big Ten season.  He is making a legitimate push to be the final All-Big Ten player (Burke, Oladipo, Thomas, Zeller). 

Moving forward, it has become clear that Michigan is really missing Jordan Morgan.  You can argue whether he is the best post defender, but the Wolverines have missed his minutes.  Having the usual starting center would allow Coach Beilein to play Morgan and McGary together, which would reduce Robinson’s minutes at the 4 position where he is a little undersized.  Morgan is the best pick and roll defender, and is a powerful rebounder.  We really noticed his absence on Saturday.  Morgan will likely be the x-factor against the Spartans tomorrow night.  If he is able to play, I like the Wolverine’s chances of victory, but if he is sidelined again then it could be another frustrating night. 

Taking a look back on 2013 recruting

Now that this year’s National Signing Day has come and gone, I would like to throw out my take of Michigan’s 27 member class.  First off, you do not have to look at any of the national recruiting services to know that this year’s additions are impressive.  I don’t think it is that accurate to compare recruiting classes with each other.  Instead there should be a way to compare the needs of a particular team against recruits actually signed.  If you have any frustrations with this recruiting class, take a second to list up the major positions of need for the Wolverines.  You would likely get a list in order of importance similar to this:  quarterback, running back, wide receiver, defensive secondary, offensive lineman, weak-side defensive end, interior defensive line, tight end, linebackers.  Now, take a look at the list of players who signed their LOI’s on Wednesday.  Do you see any position neglected, or not addressed?  Michigan pulled in arguably the best offensive line class in the country, not only just adding depth but potential NFL-caliber talent.  Shane Morris has one of the highest ceilings of any quarterback still in high school.  Derrick Green and DeVeon Smith could be impact players as freshman, and could be the best two ball carriers on the team already.  While Michigan did not grab an “elite” level receiver they did get 3 guys that they saw for a week, in person, at the Michigan football camp last summer.  At this point don’t you have to trust the coaches to make a quality choice after working with an individual for an extended time?  Brady Hoke and company attacked the defensive secondary with a mix of talented players that could see the field as true freshman and project type athletes.  Taco Charlton at WDE is one of the biggest pass rushing threats on the roster right now, and it looks like he could get up to 270 pound playing weight.  If he can keep his quickness with the added bulk, that is elite athleticism right there, and I trust our three defensive line coaches to improve his technique with each practice. The interior defensive line added depth with Maurice Hurst Jr, who’s biggest weakness is based on technique, and Henry Poggi who looks to be a great compliment to Ondre Pipkins.  Jake Butt is a more polished tight end than Devin Funchess was at this time last year.  Since Michigan got 3 top notch players at the linebacker position last year the pressing need wasn’t there, but the Wolverines pulled in two athletic players that could push for time in an already stacked linebacker group.  What is not to like?  People have already pointed to the 2014 class to base their judgment of Coach Hoke’s recruiting; can he pull in elite skill position players to keep up with Ohio State?  Regardless of the ranking of next year’s class, I can guarantee it will address the team’s most pressing needs.

The offensive recruit that I am most excited to watch in a Michigan uniform is: Patrick Kugler.  Most people have said Derrick Green, Shane Morris, or even DeVeon Smith, but I wanted to highlight someone maybe not expected.  Kugler will come to Ann Arbor as the center of the future.  Most people said Kyle Kalis was the most college ready offensive lineman they had ever seen, and Kugler falls right in line with that description as well.  He is the son of former Pittsburgh Steeler offensive line coach, so you know he has had proper coaching, which is really rare for lineman recruits. I see this recruit’s ceiling as a potential Rimmington Award winner in his career.  The offensive line is going to have huge expectations moving forward from this past year, and with Kugler as the anchor in the middle, I think they can perform up to those standards.

The defensive recruit that I am most excited for is: Taco Charlton.  I can’t wait to see Dymonte Thomas, Henry Poggi, and Mike McCray, but again I wanted to go with a recruit that could be getting overlooked.  While Charlton wasn’t the highest rated defensive end recruit in the country I think his athleticism is bordering on the elite level.  It will also help that he is already on campus, and will be adding good weight before the summer.  He could reach 270 pounds by the fall, and if the quickness stays you will have yourself a beautiful work in progress.  I think Taco could morph into the top end pass rusher from the defensive line that Michigan has been needing since Brandon Graham.

I thought this year’s class did a good job at addressing more of the remaining depth issues left over from the coaching change.  This should really set up nicely heading into the 2014 recruiting class.  Michigan’s next recruiting class should have around 20 openings, and the main goal will be adding top end talent and not as much depth building.  This should allow the coaching staff to focus their efforts on a smaller number of players, but at the same time targeting the top end evaluated talent. 

Making the case for a number 1 seed

This has been a very exciting college basketball season so far, except if you are ranked number one.  The top team has lost in 5 consecutive weeks now after Indiana choked away a win at Illinois.  If Michigan wins on Saturday they should reclaim their spot on the targeted throne, but come selection Sunday who will claim the four number one seeds?  Many teams think they can make claims at this point.  While the conference tournaments will help separate teams in the mix, I want to take a look at where teams currently stand. 

The NCAA will try to put the top teams in the closest regional possible, which could leave the last one seed at a significant disadvantage. 

The four regionals this season are:

East: Washington DC

Midwest: Indianapolis

South: Arlington

West: Los Angeles

The eleven teams that can play themselves into a one seed are (in order):

Michigan 21-2

Duke 20-2

Indiana 20-3

Florida 18-3

Gonzaga 22-2

Arizona 20-2

Kansas 19-3

Michigan State 19-4

Syracuse 19-3

Louisville 19-4

Miami 18-3

Michigan

Losses: @ Ohio State and @ Indiana

Quality Wins: Pittsburgh, Kansas State, NC State, @ Minnesota, @ Illinois, Ohio State

Their two losses aren’t even close to being considered bad.  In fact, the Indiana loss actually bumped Michigan up in the RPI standings. The Kansas State and Pittsburgh wins are looking better since both are looking to be a top 4 seed.  Michigan still has time to separate from the pack with games against Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State twice, plus the B1G tournament that could see a semi-final matchup of Final Four contenders.

Duke

Losses: @ NC State and @ Miami

Quality Wins: Kentucky, Minnesota, VCU, Louisville, Ohio State, NC State

Losing to the two teams without Ryan Kelly is not concerning, until you look at the scores.  Duke lost by 27 points to Miami in a game where the deficit was over 30 for most of the 2^nd half.  Duke is a completely different team without Kelly, and if he is not 100% before the ACC tournament the selection committee should take it into account.  The ACC is extremely weak this season so Duke has a good chance of winning all of their remaining games, and a 2 loss ACC champion will always get a one seed.

Indiana

Losses: Butler, Wisconsin, @ Illinois

Quality Wins: Georgetown, Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan

Indiana is a completely different team away from Assembly Hall.  They have struggled on neutral courts and true road games.  When they are clicking on all cylinders like they were against Michigan State or Michigan they are one of the top 3 teams in the country, but NCAA tournament games are not played in Bloomington.  Indiana is at a slight disadvantage in the B1G right now since they are the only contender to lose at home.  Like Michigan the Hoosiers still have a lot of games to separate from the pack again.

Florida

Losses: @ Arizona, Kansas State, @ Arkansas

Quality Wins: Wisconsin, Missouri, Ole Miss

The Gators were picking up dominant wins in the limp SEC until the traveled to Fayetteville and got blasted by an average Arkansas team that didn’t even register as a quality win for Michigan.  It is definitely the worst loss of the top four teams right now.  The problem with Florida is nobody really knows how good they are.  The moron Digger Phelps picks them to win the national title, while I think they are overrated and would struggle to finish in the top 4 of the Big Ten.  The Gators should be able to win out, which a 3 loss team will be hard to keep off the number one line.

Gonzaga

Losses: Illinois, @ Butler

Quality Wins: Kansas State, @ Oklahoma State

The Zags have finished their toughest tests and have come through pretty well.  They look like a legitimate good team, but since they play in a mid-major conference they should end with 2 losses.  If Michigan and Indiana get beat up in the Big Ten, and each has 4+ losses, Gonzaga could sneak in and grab the last number 1 seed. 

Arizona

Losses: @ Oregon, UCLA

Quality Wins: Florida, Miami, San Diego State

If you have read previous posts you know that I am not that high on the Wildcats.  Arizona plays in a terrible Pac-12 and should have 2 more losses.  They do have 3 impressive wins on the resume though, and if they can roll through the remaining schedule and conference tournament unscathed they will likely jump Gonzaga in the selection committee’s eyes.

Kansas

Losses: Michigan State, Oklahoma State, @ TCU

Quality Wins: @ Ohio State, @ Kansas State

The Jayhawks were on everyone’s bracket as a one seed, and likely to stay close to home in Arlington, but then they lose at home to an average Oklahoma State team and a horrible TCU team.  Do you realize that TCS is far worse in any computer rankings than any 16 seed the past 5 years?  This likely is the biggest upset of the entire year and a very bad loss for Kansas. They will likely need to win the rest of their games and get some help from teams above them to get back in the one seed picture.

Michigan State

Losses: Connecticut, @ Miami, @ Minnesota, @ Indiana

Quality Wins: Kansas, Ohio State, @ Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota

The Spartans have a lot of quality wins on the board already, and their only questionable loss is in a game played in Germany to kick off the season.  The reason I put Michigan State at the top of the four loss teams (and some with 3 losses) is because they have the most opportunities to collect quality wins.  If Michigan State somehow manages to get to selection Sunday with 6 losses or fewer it will be very hard to keep them from a number one seed.  The Spartans have games remaining against Indiana, Ohio State, Wisconsin, two against Michigan, plus 3 potential big wins in the conference tournament.

Syracuse

Losses: Temple, @ Villanova, @ Pittsburgh

Quality Wins: San Diego State, Louisville, Cincinnati

The Orange have been up and down this season.  The Big East’s hopes of getting a number 1 seed this season have come down to Syracuse and Louisville.  At this point it would likely require a strong finish and a conference tournament championship to move into the number 1 seed discussion. 

Louisville

Losses: Duke, @ Syracuse, @ Villanova, @ Georgetown

Quality Wins: Missouri, @ Memphis, Kentucky, Pittsburgh

The Cardinals definitely have played tougher competition than Syracuse so far this year, which isn’t a surprise.  The loss at Georgetown could come back and be a deciding factor at keeping them at a 2 seed or lower.  If Louisville can beat Syracuse at home, and make a run in Madison Square Garden, the selection committee always likes the Big East team with momemtum.  It is more likely that the Cardinals are playing for a 2 seed at this point.

Miami

Losses: @ Florida Gulf Coast University, Arizona, Indiana State

Quality Wins: Michigan State, Duke, @ NC State

I thought I would include the Hurricanes in this discussion since they are in the top 10 of the rankings, and they play in one of the worst ACC conferences in the past 20 seasons.  Miami has a real chance at being regular season champions with 1 loss or fewer, and if they can follow it up with a tournament run they could be near the top 5.  I personally think the Hurricanes are below average and have benefitted from a terrible schedule, but the selection committee likes the ACC champions usually.

Right now it looks like Michigan is in the best spot to get one of the top seeds, but they will be in a dog fight with Indiana for the Midwest regional.  Neither of these teams will want to be placed out west.  Duke should be able to wrap up the East regional because of their easy remaining schedule and Ryan Kelly likely coming back before the tournament.  This will leave Florida, Kansas, and Indiana fighting for the South regional in Texas.  At this point I think Kansas has an uphill battle to get a number one seed after the loss to TCU.  Indiana or Michigan should not be punished for being the second best team in their region, so I think whichever team does not get the Midwest should be placed in the South.  This will leave Florida, Gonzaga, and Arizona in the discussion for the West regional.  Both Arizona and Florida will have an advantage for just playing in a “major” conference, even though both the Pac12 and SEC are on par with the WCC.  I definitely think Florida is better than the Wildcats at this point, and they shouldn’t lose for the rest of the season. 

My four number one seeds are:

Midwest: Michigan

East: Duke

South: Indiana

West: Florida

Ohio State Recap

Ohio State came to town on Tuesday night for another heavyweight battle.  It was the 2^nd leg of Michigan’s Tour de Contenders.  If you remember, the Buckeyes handed the Wolverine’s their first loss of the season in Columbus.  The return trip was a near must-win for the maize and blue, if they have dreams of winning the regular season Big Ten title.  It is crucial to protect home court, and also at least split meetings against the top tier teams. 

I have to be honest, I am sick of playing against Aaron Craft.  Even though Michigan ended up winning one of the most exciting basketball games of the year, I went to bed frustrated.  While unbiased observers are hoping for a potential third matchup in the Big Ten Tournament, I will be happy avoiding the Buckeyes.  Both teams started the game slowly, but then Michigan struck with their first run of the game.  It was sparked by Nik Stauskas’ fade away corner three pointer over 6’8” Sam Thompson.  In the words of Bill Raftery: “Onions.” Then Thad Matta took his first time out to stop the bleeding, and from that moment Michigan lost any momentum as Ohio State chipped away at the lead; eventually taking a one point lead into halftime. 

The second half was much of the same trajectory.  Somehow the leprechaun hit a 30 foot, uncontested, shot after the shot clock expired, and the refs counted it.  This helped the Buckeyes expand their lead to 8 points nearly 10 minutes into the 2^nd half.  My hope was shrinking and my annoyance of all things Aaron Craft was growing, but then enter: Tim Hardaway Jr.  He was unconscious; so much so that ESPN began comparing NBA shooting efforts from the past two nights as ‘a Hardaway effort.’  The improved junior guard made 4 three pointers in a span of a few real time minutes, and finished 5 for 5 in the half.  Michigan was able to chip away at the deficit, eventually taking their first lead of the half, 52-50, after one of number 10’s bombs.  The rest of the game went back and forth with both teams having a chance to win the game late, but after 40 minutes the score was knotted at 72. 

Overtime consisted of Trey Burke hitting an unbelievable three pointer over Craft with the shot clock running down, and Ohio State forgetting how their offense runs.  Michigan began playing not to lose after scoring on their first possession, and instead of pulling away in the final 3 minutes, the Wolverines floundered around.  This ultimately led to Ohio State having two chances to tie or take the lead in the last 20 minutes.  If not for two blocks on Craft, I would have likely had an even harder time falling asleep.  While most Buckeye fans are still whining about a foul not being called on Burke or Hardaway in the final seconds, they seem to forget that the refs gave Thad’s Thugs an extra 5 points in regulation.  The goon Ravenell did everything possibly to get an offensive goaltend (he touched the ball twice while still in the cylinder), and the before mentioned Craft prayer.  With those two bad calls in mind, I don’t mind the no-calls going in favor of Michigan.  So much for getting home court advantage at Crisler, though.

While the offense sputtered at times, they still managed to shred the Buckeye defense for 1.19 ppp. It was the best offensive numbers put up against the Buckeyes all season, and by a large margin.  Michigan was aided by shooting 14-24 from long range, including 8-9 in the second half.  This shooting percentage is not sustainable, but they knocked down the shots needed to win this particular game.  I would like to see Michigan attacking the basket more, whether through back cuts from Stauskas and Robinson, or isolation plays for any one of the perimeter guys.  The positive thing to take from this game, though, is no other team in America has Aaron Craft.  That alone is worth some celebrating.

I was really frustrated with the defensive performance from the Wolverines in this game.  I am sure playing the grinding Big Ten schedule has a lot to do with tired, sore, players, but Michigan will need to play at a higher level moving forward.  Ohio State outperformed their season average on offense by nearly .15 ppp, which correlates to 10 less points in the same number of possesions.  Yes, the 5 points awarded by the refs does factor into this number some, but Michigan also played one of its worst games on defense.  The young Wolverines were constantly late for rotations, forgot to box out on too many shots, and the big men allowed the ever-so-soft Amir Williams to seal them on the block.  Williams and Ross had career games in one of the most hostile environments they have ever played in.  I am very interested to see how Michigan responds this weekend against Wisconsin.  They have an extra day off to prepare and rest, hopefully Jordan Morgan will be ready to play closer to 10 minutes, and the Badgers struggle on offense.  Michigan should target holding Bo Ryan’s team to 1.00 ppp or under.  GRIII seemed to play with more energy on Tuesday night, and he might have been helped by being able to go to the bench for a few minutes.  He has had an extremely tough back to back assignment with two potential NBA players (Watford and Thomas). Wisconsin runs a lot of offensive sets through Ryan Evans, so Glenn will be crucial for Michigan locking down the Badgers.  I also want to see Michigan play more physical on the defensive end.  There are times when Trey Burke exerts a lot of effort to body up the ball handler, and McGary is physical just by being on the floor, but the rest of the guys do not dictate where they want their matchup to go.  Too often Michigan plays reaction defense.  By that, I mean, the passing lanes are not denied, block position is too easily allowed, rotations are late, help defense is too hesitant, and lately players have struggled to be in good rebound position. 

It was a good win for the Wolverines on Tuesday night, but Michigan will need to continue to improve on the defensive end to win the Big Ten and compete for a Final Four.  I definitely think the extra day will help the team, but Wisconsin will pose a physical test.  The Wolverines should be able to get some more rest and recovery after the next two games, with a Tuesday/ Sunday week next up and then a week off following.  Just hopefully they can compete on an elite level before then.

B1G Update

Happy National Signing Day, so far there have been no surprises with any Michigan commitments.  I meant to post my Big Ten power rankings yesterday before the first two games of the week, but work got a little too busy.  I will try to make the standings based off my view as of Monday and not after seeing the outcomes last night.  We are now half way through the conference season and the true contenders are starting to rise to the top. 

1.       Indiana (up 1)

Indiana had one of the most impressive offensive outings at Mackey Arena, scoring 1.47 ppp for the entire game.  Then they outlasted Michigan at home on Saturday night.  I think the Wolverines are very close with the Hoosiers, especially since Indiana has one home loss compared to Michigan being perfect in Ann Arbor.  The Hoosiers have a tough week ahead of them; first, with a trip to the other Assembly Hall to face fading Illinois.  Even though these two teams are heading in different directions, Illinois can be tough at home and have been known to pull off an upset or two each year.  Then Indiana heads to Columbus to take of Thad’s Thugs.  The Hoosiers really struggled with Wisconsin earlier this year, and the Buckeyes are a better version of the Badgers.  It should be a very interesting game, and a win in Value City Arena would put Indiana as a clear number 1 in my mind.

2.       Michigan (down 1)

The Wolverines cruised to another 20 point conference win against Northwestern and then struggled out of the gate in Bloomington and never fully recovered.  I still think Michigan is a top 3 team in the country, and the rematch with Indiana can’t come soon enough.  The maize and blue host Ohio State in a near must win if the Wolverines are going to compete for a conference title.  Then Michigan heads back on the road for their two toughest games away from home (Wisconsin & Michigan State).  If the Wolverines can find a way to win both games they should be back as the favorite to win the B1G.

3.       Michigan State (no change)

The Spartans hosted Illinois last week and struggled in the first half to the tune of a 10 point halftime deficit.  Lucky enough they were playing the Illini, and they forgot what basketball was in the 2^nd half.  Michigan State welcomes Minnesota to the Breslin this week and then travels to Purdue. Michigan State will need to continue to win on their home court to keep pace in the conference race.  Look for the Purdue game to be a slow starter with the matchup with Michigan looming next week.

4.       Ohio State (no change)

Ohio State has its toughest week of the season.  The Buckeyes travel to Ann Arbor to face an angry Michigan team and then return home to welcome Indiana.  If Ohio State can win either game they are legitimate title contenders.  It is scary that the top 4 teams in this conference are top 10 teams in my mind.  If OSU can find some offensive consistency, then all four could be Final Four contenders as well.

5.       Wisconsin (no change)

Wisconsin held tough in Columbus, but couldn’t overcome a late 13-0 run from the Buckeyes.  The Badgers bounced back with a dominating win over Illinois on the road.  This week they have to play Iowa and Michigan, and again going 2-0 would have a huge impact in the final standings.

6.       Minnesota (no change)

Minnesota needs a bounce back week. They struggled against Iowa, and probably should have lost.  Hopefully that late win will give this mentally weak team some momentum.  The Gophers head to East Lansing, and it is close to a must win for Minnesota.  Then they travel to Illinois where they can’t slip up.  I think Minnesota might be out of the conference championship race already, but if they can get on another roll and string together some wins the Gophers could end up a favored seed (4 or better).  

7.       Iowa (up 1)

I feel bad for Iowa fans this season.  They have been so close to notching some huge wins (Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Minnesota) but have come up empty in each.  The talent is there, but this team just doesn’t know how to finish games.  The Hawkeyes have to play Wisconsin and Northwestern.  If they want any chance of making the NCAA tournament they need to start closing out games. A two win week would be welcomed in Iowa City.

8.       Purdue (down 1)

Purdue had a very rough last week.  They had to witness the IU massacre first hand, and then rebounded with a disappointing loss to Northwestern.  AJ Hammons has been the lone bright spot offensively for the Boilers.  He scored 30 points on 14 shots against Indiana, and had a double-double against Northwestern.  Purdue has to play Penn State and Michigan State this week.

9.       Illinois (no change)

Illinois is still on the downward spiral.  They sit at 2-7 in the conference, but somehow are still in the top 50 in RPI.  The Illini have to play Indiana this week.  At this point Illinois has to win at least 6 more games to even be considered for the NCAA tournament.  A win against the Hoosiers would go a long way in that quest. Then the Illini have to head to the Barn against the Gophers, a 2-0 week would be huge for Coach Groce’s team.

10.   Northwestern (no change)

Northwestern beat Purdue last week, but it is not enough to jump Illinois yet.  The Wildcats need to be more consistent to move up in the rankings.  This week their only game is against Iowa, which is winnable.

11.   Nebraska (no change)

Nebraska is still on the bottom, but just ahead of Penn State.  They played tough against Ohio State, but couldn’t make enough shots down the stretch to pull off the huge upset.  The Huskers welcome Penn State to Lincoln which should give them another win.

12.   Penn State (no change)

What more can I say.  They are bad.     

Indiana Recap

The regular season game of the year came and passed, and I am left with joy that the Super Bowl was also this past weekend so Indiana is no longer on some four letter network’s front page.  Michigan traveled down to Bloomington for a heavyweight battle with the Hoosiers, and on the national scene the game did not disappoint.  However, for those of you that follow the Wolverines as much as me, you were likely left with a bad taste in your mouth.  Now take a step back and think of where that frustrated feeling is coming from?  You, like me, probably expected our Michigan team to go into the most hostile environment that most of these guys will ever play in, and win.  Then when they didn’t play up to the expectation you set for them in your mind, and Indiana finally pulled away for good, you are disappointed.  Hopefully that didn’t make you feel like a bad fan, because that is not my intention at all.  I was with you on Saturday night.  I kept looking at the clock after noon just counting down the minutes until tip-off, but by 11:15pm I was frustrated, cranky, and wishing Mitch McGary body slammed Oladipo after his Spartan-like dunk to end the game. 

Thankfully I decided to let myself cool down before writing the recap.  Yes, losing is never fun, especially on a national stage with first place on the line.  But I cannot restate just how much fun this team that we get to root for really is.  Some of us actually expected a team with 5 contributing freshman to win in Assembly Hall.  A team without its starting center to be able to slow down the best big man in the country, and likely the number 1 pick in the next NBA draft.  A group of players in their first 9pm weekend game to be able to stay mentally poised to handle the biggest crowd that most of them had ever played in front.  On top of all of this, Nik Stauskas was apparently battling the flu as well.  The chips were stacked against Michigan to say the least.  Yet we waited hours to experience something unprecedented, something great. 

I honestly don’t know how much better Indiana could have played in this game, but in the hours following the finish, most of us thought of any missed opportunity the Wolverines couldn’t convert.  It was just one of those nights that the best shooting team in the country couldn’t knock down shots efficiently, yet somehow they only lost by 8 points; on the road against one of the country’s best teams.  Michigan is still in the middle of their toughest stretch of the season, so they need to bounce back in a big way against Ohio State tomorrow.  But today I am left to look at Saturday night’s event and know with as much certainty a Big Ten-biased blogger can and say Indiana and Michigan are the two best basketball teams in the country and should be Final Four favorites.  The Hoosiers did not expose the Wolverine’s as a fraud number one team.  If Michigan can move forward, focus on their next three opponents, and play basketball like they expect to, I think Saturday night’s came actually cements them as the nation’s top team. 

The recurring theme of the Indiana matchup was that the Hoosiers were able to exploit any offensive mismatches and Michigan could not do the same.  Cody Zeller, Christian Watford, and Jordan Hulls were all able to outscore their opponent.  Hardaway and Oladipo played to a near enough stalemate, and the player of the year (Burke) put the Wolverines on his back and almost single-handedly kept the game close.  Before the game we knew Zeller and Burke would dominate their positions, and in order for Michigan to have a chance Hardaway would have to draw even with my new enemy number one.  The two remaining matchups were, ultimately, going to decide the game, and they did in Indiana’s favor.  Saturday night left me with an instant craving to see round 2 in Ann Arbor (and rounds 3 and 4 on neutral sites).