Taking a look back on 2013 recruting

Now that this year’s National Signing Day has come and gone, I would like to throw out my take of Michigan’s 27 member class.  First off, you do not have to look at any of the national recruiting services to know that this year’s additions are impressive.  I don’t think it is that accurate to compare recruiting classes with each other.  Instead there should be a way to compare the needs of a particular team against recruits actually signed.  If you have any frustrations with this recruiting class, take a second to list up the major positions of need for the Wolverines.  You would likely get a list in order of importance similar to this:  quarterback, running back, wide receiver, defensive secondary, offensive lineman, weak-side defensive end, interior defensive line, tight end, linebackers.  Now, take a look at the list of players who signed their LOI’s on Wednesday.  Do you see any position neglected, or not addressed?  Michigan pulled in arguably the best offensive line class in the country, not only just adding depth but potential NFL-caliber talent.  Shane Morris has one of the highest ceilings of any quarterback still in high school.  Derrick Green and DeVeon Smith could be impact players as freshman, and could be the best two ball carriers on the team already.  While Michigan did not grab an “elite” level receiver they did get 3 guys that they saw for a week, in person, at the Michigan football camp last summer.  At this point don’t you have to trust the coaches to make a quality choice after working with an individual for an extended time?  Brady Hoke and company attacked the defensive secondary with a mix of talented players that could see the field as true freshman and project type athletes.  Taco Charlton at WDE is one of the biggest pass rushing threats on the roster right now, and it looks like he could get up to 270 pound playing weight.  If he can keep his quickness with the added bulk, that is elite athleticism right there, and I trust our three defensive line coaches to improve his technique with each practice. The interior defensive line added depth with Maurice Hurst Jr, who’s biggest weakness is based on technique, and Henry Poggi who looks to be a great compliment to Ondre Pipkins.  Jake Butt is a more polished tight end than Devin Funchess was at this time last year.  Since Michigan got 3 top notch players at the linebacker position last year the pressing need wasn’t there, but the Wolverines pulled in two athletic players that could push for time in an already stacked linebacker group.  What is not to like?  People have already pointed to the 2014 class to base their judgment of Coach Hoke’s recruiting; can he pull in elite skill position players to keep up with Ohio State?  Regardless of the ranking of next year’s class, I can guarantee it will address the team’s most pressing needs.

The offensive recruit that I am most excited to watch in a Michigan uniform is: Patrick Kugler.  Most people have said Derrick Green, Shane Morris, or even DeVeon Smith, but I wanted to highlight someone maybe not expected.  Kugler will come to Ann Arbor as the center of the future.  Most people said Kyle Kalis was the most college ready offensive lineman they had ever seen, and Kugler falls right in line with that description as well.  He is the son of former Pittsburgh Steeler offensive line coach, so you know he has had proper coaching, which is really rare for lineman recruits. I see this recruit’s ceiling as a potential Rimmington Award winner in his career.  The offensive line is going to have huge expectations moving forward from this past year, and with Kugler as the anchor in the middle, I think they can perform up to those standards.

The defensive recruit that I am most excited for is: Taco Charlton.  I can’t wait to see Dymonte Thomas, Henry Poggi, and Mike McCray, but again I wanted to go with a recruit that could be getting overlooked.  While Charlton wasn’t the highest rated defensive end recruit in the country I think his athleticism is bordering on the elite level.  It will also help that he is already on campus, and will be adding good weight before the summer.  He could reach 270 pounds by the fall, and if the quickness stays you will have yourself a beautiful work in progress.  I think Taco could morph into the top end pass rusher from the defensive line that Michigan has been needing since Brandon Graham.

I thought this year’s class did a good job at addressing more of the remaining depth issues left over from the coaching change.  This should really set up nicely heading into the 2014 recruiting class.  Michigan’s next recruiting class should have around 20 openings, and the main goal will be adding top end talent and not as much depth building.  This should allow the coaching staff to focus their efforts on a smaller number of players, but at the same time targeting the top end evaluated talent. 

Making the case for a number 1 seed

This has been a very exciting college basketball season so far, except if you are ranked number one.  The top team has lost in 5 consecutive weeks now after Indiana choked away a win at Illinois.  If Michigan wins on Saturday they should reclaim their spot on the targeted throne, but come selection Sunday who will claim the four number one seeds?  Many teams think they can make claims at this point.  While the conference tournaments will help separate teams in the mix, I want to take a look at where teams currently stand. 

The NCAA will try to put the top teams in the closest regional possible, which could leave the last one seed at a significant disadvantage. 

The four regionals this season are:

East: Washington DC

Midwest: Indianapolis

South: Arlington

West: Los Angeles

The eleven teams that can play themselves into a one seed are (in order):

Michigan 21-2

Duke 20-2

Indiana 20-3

Florida 18-3

Gonzaga 22-2

Arizona 20-2

Kansas 19-3

Michigan State 19-4

Syracuse 19-3

Louisville 19-4

Miami 18-3

Michigan

Losses: @ Ohio State and @ Indiana

Quality Wins: Pittsburgh, Kansas State, NC State, @ Minnesota, @ Illinois, Ohio State

Their two losses aren’t even close to being considered bad.  In fact, the Indiana loss actually bumped Michigan up in the RPI standings. The Kansas State and Pittsburgh wins are looking better since both are looking to be a top 4 seed.  Michigan still has time to separate from the pack with games against Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State twice, plus the B1G tournament that could see a semi-final matchup of Final Four contenders.

Duke

Losses: @ NC State and @ Miami

Quality Wins: Kentucky, Minnesota, VCU, Louisville, Ohio State, NC State

Losing to the two teams without Ryan Kelly is not concerning, until you look at the scores.  Duke lost by 27 points to Miami in a game where the deficit was over 30 for most of the 2^nd half.  Duke is a completely different team without Kelly, and if he is not 100% before the ACC tournament the selection committee should take it into account.  The ACC is extremely weak this season so Duke has a good chance of winning all of their remaining games, and a 2 loss ACC champion will always get a one seed.

Indiana

Losses: Butler, Wisconsin, @ Illinois

Quality Wins: Georgetown, Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan

Indiana is a completely different team away from Assembly Hall.  They have struggled on neutral courts and true road games.  When they are clicking on all cylinders like they were against Michigan State or Michigan they are one of the top 3 teams in the country, but NCAA tournament games are not played in Bloomington.  Indiana is at a slight disadvantage in the B1G right now since they are the only contender to lose at home.  Like Michigan the Hoosiers still have a lot of games to separate from the pack again.

Florida

Losses: @ Arizona, Kansas State, @ Arkansas

Quality Wins: Wisconsin, Missouri, Ole Miss

The Gators were picking up dominant wins in the limp SEC until the traveled to Fayetteville and got blasted by an average Arkansas team that didn’t even register as a quality win for Michigan.  It is definitely the worst loss of the top four teams right now.  The problem with Florida is nobody really knows how good they are.  The moron Digger Phelps picks them to win the national title, while I think they are overrated and would struggle to finish in the top 4 of the Big Ten.  The Gators should be able to win out, which a 3 loss team will be hard to keep off the number one line.

Gonzaga

Losses: Illinois, @ Butler

Quality Wins: Kansas State, @ Oklahoma State

The Zags have finished their toughest tests and have come through pretty well.  They look like a legitimate good team, but since they play in a mid-major conference they should end with 2 losses.  If Michigan and Indiana get beat up in the Big Ten, and each has 4+ losses, Gonzaga could sneak in and grab the last number 1 seed. 

Arizona

Losses: @ Oregon, UCLA

Quality Wins: Florida, Miami, San Diego State

If you have read previous posts you know that I am not that high on the Wildcats.  Arizona plays in a terrible Pac-12 and should have 2 more losses.  They do have 3 impressive wins on the resume though, and if they can roll through the remaining schedule and conference tournament unscathed they will likely jump Gonzaga in the selection committee’s eyes.

Kansas

Losses: Michigan State, Oklahoma State, @ TCU

Quality Wins: @ Ohio State, @ Kansas State

The Jayhawks were on everyone’s bracket as a one seed, and likely to stay close to home in Arlington, but then they lose at home to an average Oklahoma State team and a horrible TCU team.  Do you realize that TCS is far worse in any computer rankings than any 16 seed the past 5 years?  This likely is the biggest upset of the entire year and a very bad loss for Kansas. They will likely need to win the rest of their games and get some help from teams above them to get back in the one seed picture.

Michigan State

Losses: Connecticut, @ Miami, @ Minnesota, @ Indiana

Quality Wins: Kansas, Ohio State, @ Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota

The Spartans have a lot of quality wins on the board already, and their only questionable loss is in a game played in Germany to kick off the season.  The reason I put Michigan State at the top of the four loss teams (and some with 3 losses) is because they have the most opportunities to collect quality wins.  If Michigan State somehow manages to get to selection Sunday with 6 losses or fewer it will be very hard to keep them from a number one seed.  The Spartans have games remaining against Indiana, Ohio State, Wisconsin, two against Michigan, plus 3 potential big wins in the conference tournament.

Syracuse

Losses: Temple, @ Villanova, @ Pittsburgh

Quality Wins: San Diego State, Louisville, Cincinnati

The Orange have been up and down this season.  The Big East’s hopes of getting a number 1 seed this season have come down to Syracuse and Louisville.  At this point it would likely require a strong finish and a conference tournament championship to move into the number 1 seed discussion. 

Louisville

Losses: Duke, @ Syracuse, @ Villanova, @ Georgetown

Quality Wins: Missouri, @ Memphis, Kentucky, Pittsburgh

The Cardinals definitely have played tougher competition than Syracuse so far this year, which isn’t a surprise.  The loss at Georgetown could come back and be a deciding factor at keeping them at a 2 seed or lower.  If Louisville can beat Syracuse at home, and make a run in Madison Square Garden, the selection committee always likes the Big East team with momemtum.  It is more likely that the Cardinals are playing for a 2 seed at this point.

Miami

Losses: @ Florida Gulf Coast University, Arizona, Indiana State

Quality Wins: Michigan State, Duke, @ NC State

I thought I would include the Hurricanes in this discussion since they are in the top 10 of the rankings, and they play in one of the worst ACC conferences in the past 20 seasons.  Miami has a real chance at being regular season champions with 1 loss or fewer, and if they can follow it up with a tournament run they could be near the top 5.  I personally think the Hurricanes are below average and have benefitted from a terrible schedule, but the selection committee likes the ACC champions usually.

Right now it looks like Michigan is in the best spot to get one of the top seeds, but they will be in a dog fight with Indiana for the Midwest regional.  Neither of these teams will want to be placed out west.  Duke should be able to wrap up the East regional because of their easy remaining schedule and Ryan Kelly likely coming back before the tournament.  This will leave Florida, Kansas, and Indiana fighting for the South regional in Texas.  At this point I think Kansas has an uphill battle to get a number one seed after the loss to TCU.  Indiana or Michigan should not be punished for being the second best team in their region, so I think whichever team does not get the Midwest should be placed in the South.  This will leave Florida, Gonzaga, and Arizona in the discussion for the West regional.  Both Arizona and Florida will have an advantage for just playing in a “major” conference, even though both the Pac12 and SEC are on par with the WCC.  I definitely think Florida is better than the Wildcats at this point, and they shouldn’t lose for the rest of the season. 

My four number one seeds are:

Midwest: Michigan

East: Duke

South: Indiana

West: Florida

Ohio State Recap

Ohio State came to town on Tuesday night for another heavyweight battle.  It was the 2^nd leg of Michigan’s Tour de Contenders.  If you remember, the Buckeyes handed the Wolverine’s their first loss of the season in Columbus.  The return trip was a near must-win for the maize and blue, if they have dreams of winning the regular season Big Ten title.  It is crucial to protect home court, and also at least split meetings against the top tier teams. 

I have to be honest, I am sick of playing against Aaron Craft.  Even though Michigan ended up winning one of the most exciting basketball games of the year, I went to bed frustrated.  While unbiased observers are hoping for a potential third matchup in the Big Ten Tournament, I will be happy avoiding the Buckeyes.  Both teams started the game slowly, but then Michigan struck with their first run of the game.  It was sparked by Nik Stauskas’ fade away corner three pointer over 6’8” Sam Thompson.  In the words of Bill Raftery: “Onions.” Then Thad Matta took his first time out to stop the bleeding, and from that moment Michigan lost any momentum as Ohio State chipped away at the lead; eventually taking a one point lead into halftime. 

The second half was much of the same trajectory.  Somehow the leprechaun hit a 30 foot, uncontested, shot after the shot clock expired, and the refs counted it.  This helped the Buckeyes expand their lead to 8 points nearly 10 minutes into the 2^nd half.  My hope was shrinking and my annoyance of all things Aaron Craft was growing, but then enter: Tim Hardaway Jr.  He was unconscious; so much so that ESPN began comparing NBA shooting efforts from the past two nights as ‘a Hardaway effort.’  The improved junior guard made 4 three pointers in a span of a few real time minutes, and finished 5 for 5 in the half.  Michigan was able to chip away at the deficit, eventually taking their first lead of the half, 52-50, after one of number 10’s bombs.  The rest of the game went back and forth with both teams having a chance to win the game late, but after 40 minutes the score was knotted at 72. 

Overtime consisted of Trey Burke hitting an unbelievable three pointer over Craft with the shot clock running down, and Ohio State forgetting how their offense runs.  Michigan began playing not to lose after scoring on their first possession, and instead of pulling away in the final 3 minutes, the Wolverines floundered around.  This ultimately led to Ohio State having two chances to tie or take the lead in the last 20 minutes.  If not for two blocks on Craft, I would have likely had an even harder time falling asleep.  While most Buckeye fans are still whining about a foul not being called on Burke or Hardaway in the final seconds, they seem to forget that the refs gave Thad’s Thugs an extra 5 points in regulation.  The goon Ravenell did everything possibly to get an offensive goaltend (he touched the ball twice while still in the cylinder), and the before mentioned Craft prayer.  With those two bad calls in mind, I don’t mind the no-calls going in favor of Michigan.  So much for getting home court advantage at Crisler, though.

While the offense sputtered at times, they still managed to shred the Buckeye defense for 1.19 ppp. It was the best offensive numbers put up against the Buckeyes all season, and by a large margin.  Michigan was aided by shooting 14-24 from long range, including 8-9 in the second half.  This shooting percentage is not sustainable, but they knocked down the shots needed to win this particular game.  I would like to see Michigan attacking the basket more, whether through back cuts from Stauskas and Robinson, or isolation plays for any one of the perimeter guys.  The positive thing to take from this game, though, is no other team in America has Aaron Craft.  That alone is worth some celebrating.

I was really frustrated with the defensive performance from the Wolverines in this game.  I am sure playing the grinding Big Ten schedule has a lot to do with tired, sore, players, but Michigan will need to play at a higher level moving forward.  Ohio State outperformed their season average on offense by nearly .15 ppp, which correlates to 10 less points in the same number of possesions.  Yes, the 5 points awarded by the refs does factor into this number some, but Michigan also played one of its worst games on defense.  The young Wolverines were constantly late for rotations, forgot to box out on too many shots, and the big men allowed the ever-so-soft Amir Williams to seal them on the block.  Williams and Ross had career games in one of the most hostile environments they have ever played in.  I am very interested to see how Michigan responds this weekend against Wisconsin.  They have an extra day off to prepare and rest, hopefully Jordan Morgan will be ready to play closer to 10 minutes, and the Badgers struggle on offense.  Michigan should target holding Bo Ryan’s team to 1.00 ppp or under.  GRIII seemed to play with more energy on Tuesday night, and he might have been helped by being able to go to the bench for a few minutes.  He has had an extremely tough back to back assignment with two potential NBA players (Watford and Thomas). Wisconsin runs a lot of offensive sets through Ryan Evans, so Glenn will be crucial for Michigan locking down the Badgers.  I also want to see Michigan play more physical on the defensive end.  There are times when Trey Burke exerts a lot of effort to body up the ball handler, and McGary is physical just by being on the floor, but the rest of the guys do not dictate where they want their matchup to go.  Too often Michigan plays reaction defense.  By that, I mean, the passing lanes are not denied, block position is too easily allowed, rotations are late, help defense is too hesitant, and lately players have struggled to be in good rebound position. 

It was a good win for the Wolverines on Tuesday night, but Michigan will need to continue to improve on the defensive end to win the Big Ten and compete for a Final Four.  I definitely think the extra day will help the team, but Wisconsin will pose a physical test.  The Wolverines should be able to get some more rest and recovery after the next two games, with a Tuesday/ Sunday week next up and then a week off following.  Just hopefully they can compete on an elite level before then.

B1G Update

Happy National Signing Day, so far there have been no surprises with any Michigan commitments.  I meant to post my Big Ten power rankings yesterday before the first two games of the week, but work got a little too busy.  I will try to make the standings based off my view as of Monday and not after seeing the outcomes last night.  We are now half way through the conference season and the true contenders are starting to rise to the top. 

1.       Indiana (up 1)

Indiana had one of the most impressive offensive outings at Mackey Arena, scoring 1.47 ppp for the entire game.  Then they outlasted Michigan at home on Saturday night.  I think the Wolverines are very close with the Hoosiers, especially since Indiana has one home loss compared to Michigan being perfect in Ann Arbor.  The Hoosiers have a tough week ahead of them; first, with a trip to the other Assembly Hall to face fading Illinois.  Even though these two teams are heading in different directions, Illinois can be tough at home and have been known to pull off an upset or two each year.  Then Indiana heads to Columbus to take of Thad’s Thugs.  The Hoosiers really struggled with Wisconsin earlier this year, and the Buckeyes are a better version of the Badgers.  It should be a very interesting game, and a win in Value City Arena would put Indiana as a clear number 1 in my mind.

2.       Michigan (down 1)

The Wolverines cruised to another 20 point conference win against Northwestern and then struggled out of the gate in Bloomington and never fully recovered.  I still think Michigan is a top 3 team in the country, and the rematch with Indiana can’t come soon enough.  The maize and blue host Ohio State in a near must win if the Wolverines are going to compete for a conference title.  Then Michigan heads back on the road for their two toughest games away from home (Wisconsin & Michigan State).  If the Wolverines can find a way to win both games they should be back as the favorite to win the B1G.

3.       Michigan State (no change)

The Spartans hosted Illinois last week and struggled in the first half to the tune of a 10 point halftime deficit.  Lucky enough they were playing the Illini, and they forgot what basketball was in the 2^nd half.  Michigan State welcomes Minnesota to the Breslin this week and then travels to Purdue. Michigan State will need to continue to win on their home court to keep pace in the conference race.  Look for the Purdue game to be a slow starter with the matchup with Michigan looming next week.

4.       Ohio State (no change)

Ohio State has its toughest week of the season.  The Buckeyes travel to Ann Arbor to face an angry Michigan team and then return home to welcome Indiana.  If Ohio State can win either game they are legitimate title contenders.  It is scary that the top 4 teams in this conference are top 10 teams in my mind.  If OSU can find some offensive consistency, then all four could be Final Four contenders as well.

5.       Wisconsin (no change)

Wisconsin held tough in Columbus, but couldn’t overcome a late 13-0 run from the Buckeyes.  The Badgers bounced back with a dominating win over Illinois on the road.  This week they have to play Iowa and Michigan, and again going 2-0 would have a huge impact in the final standings.

6.       Minnesota (no change)

Minnesota needs a bounce back week. They struggled against Iowa, and probably should have lost.  Hopefully that late win will give this mentally weak team some momentum.  The Gophers head to East Lansing, and it is close to a must win for Minnesota.  Then they travel to Illinois where they can’t slip up.  I think Minnesota might be out of the conference championship race already, but if they can get on another roll and string together some wins the Gophers could end up a favored seed (4 or better).  

7.       Iowa (up 1)

I feel bad for Iowa fans this season.  They have been so close to notching some huge wins (Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Minnesota) but have come up empty in each.  The talent is there, but this team just doesn’t know how to finish games.  The Hawkeyes have to play Wisconsin and Northwestern.  If they want any chance of making the NCAA tournament they need to start closing out games. A two win week would be welcomed in Iowa City.

8.       Purdue (down 1)

Purdue had a very rough last week.  They had to witness the IU massacre first hand, and then rebounded with a disappointing loss to Northwestern.  AJ Hammons has been the lone bright spot offensively for the Boilers.  He scored 30 points on 14 shots against Indiana, and had a double-double against Northwestern.  Purdue has to play Penn State and Michigan State this week.

9.       Illinois (no change)

Illinois is still on the downward spiral.  They sit at 2-7 in the conference, but somehow are still in the top 50 in RPI.  The Illini have to play Indiana this week.  At this point Illinois has to win at least 6 more games to even be considered for the NCAA tournament.  A win against the Hoosiers would go a long way in that quest. Then the Illini have to head to the Barn against the Gophers, a 2-0 week would be huge for Coach Groce’s team.

10.   Northwestern (no change)

Northwestern beat Purdue last week, but it is not enough to jump Illinois yet.  The Wildcats need to be more consistent to move up in the rankings.  This week their only game is against Iowa, which is winnable.

11.   Nebraska (no change)

Nebraska is still on the bottom, but just ahead of Penn State.  They played tough against Ohio State, but couldn’t make enough shots down the stretch to pull off the huge upset.  The Huskers welcome Penn State to Lincoln which should give them another win.

12.   Penn State (no change)

What more can I say.  They are bad.     

Indiana Recap

The regular season game of the year came and passed, and I am left with joy that the Super Bowl was also this past weekend so Indiana is no longer on some four letter network’s front page.  Michigan traveled down to Bloomington for a heavyweight battle with the Hoosiers, and on the national scene the game did not disappoint.  However, for those of you that follow the Wolverines as much as me, you were likely left with a bad taste in your mouth.  Now take a step back and think of where that frustrated feeling is coming from?  You, like me, probably expected our Michigan team to go into the most hostile environment that most of these guys will ever play in, and win.  Then when they didn’t play up to the expectation you set for them in your mind, and Indiana finally pulled away for good, you are disappointed.  Hopefully that didn’t make you feel like a bad fan, because that is not my intention at all.  I was with you on Saturday night.  I kept looking at the clock after noon just counting down the minutes until tip-off, but by 11:15pm I was frustrated, cranky, and wishing Mitch McGary body slammed Oladipo after his Spartan-like dunk to end the game. 

Thankfully I decided to let myself cool down before writing the recap.  Yes, losing is never fun, especially on a national stage with first place on the line.  But I cannot restate just how much fun this team that we get to root for really is.  Some of us actually expected a team with 5 contributing freshman to win in Assembly Hall.  A team without its starting center to be able to slow down the best big man in the country, and likely the number 1 pick in the next NBA draft.  A group of players in their first 9pm weekend game to be able to stay mentally poised to handle the biggest crowd that most of them had ever played in front.  On top of all of this, Nik Stauskas was apparently battling the flu as well.  The chips were stacked against Michigan to say the least.  Yet we waited hours to experience something unprecedented, something great. 

I honestly don’t know how much better Indiana could have played in this game, but in the hours following the finish, most of us thought of any missed opportunity the Wolverines couldn’t convert.  It was just one of those nights that the best shooting team in the country couldn’t knock down shots efficiently, yet somehow they only lost by 8 points; on the road against one of the country’s best teams.  Michigan is still in the middle of their toughest stretch of the season, so they need to bounce back in a big way against Ohio State tomorrow.  But today I am left to look at Saturday night’s event and know with as much certainty a Big Ten-biased blogger can and say Indiana and Michigan are the two best basketball teams in the country and should be Final Four favorites.  The Hoosiers did not expose the Wolverine’s as a fraud number one team.  If Michigan can move forward, focus on their next three opponents, and play basketball like they expect to, I think Saturday night’s came actually cements them as the nation’s top team. 

The recurring theme of the Indiana matchup was that the Hoosiers were able to exploit any offensive mismatches and Michigan could not do the same.  Cody Zeller, Christian Watford, and Jordan Hulls were all able to outscore their opponent.  Hardaway and Oladipo played to a near enough stalemate, and the player of the year (Burke) put the Wolverines on his back and almost single-handedly kept the game close.  Before the game we knew Zeller and Burke would dominate their positions, and in order for Michigan to have a chance Hardaway would have to draw even with my new enemy number one.  The two remaining matchups were, ultimately, going to decide the game, and they did in Indiana’s favor.  Saturday night left me with an instant craving to see round 2 in Ann Arbor (and rounds 3 and 4 on neutral sites). 

Indiana vs Michigan Matchup Issues

As you might have recognized, I have stopped doing basketball previews to just focus on the post-game recaps.  But, I cannot contain my excitement for the upcoming showdown with Indiana.  It is the most hyped Michigan basketball game in my memory, and there are so many interesting topics to discuss.  Saturday’s game is one that matches the nation’s two best offenses, 2 national player of the year candidates, and likely 6 players that could be selected in this year’s NBA draft.  I only wish I could be a part of each coaching staff’s film and game planning session. 

Let’s start on the Indiana sideline.  The Hoosiers have been using a starting lineup of Yogi Ferrell, Jordan Hulls, Victor Oladipo, Christian Watford, and Cody Zeller.  It has been pretty successful on the offensive end; for example they scored 1.47 ppp last night against Purdue which, frankly, is unbelievable.  However, this lineup could present some matchup issues with the talented Wolverines.  Tom Crean has to be thinking the best way to slow down Michigan is to limit Trey Burke’s impact.  Trey is at his best when he can break down a defense off the dribble, get into the lane and finish at the rim, kick out to an open shooter, or hit a back cutter for a layup.  The Wolverine offense runs through Trey, so slowing him down is critical to limiting their efficiency.  The easy solution here for Indiana is to put the 6’5” Oladipo on Burke.  He is by far the Hoosier’s best on ball defender, and he would be able to use his length and quickness to really affect Trey.  By making this decision it leaves two 6’0” guards (Ferrell and Hulls) to try to match up with two 6’6”+ wing type players (Stauskas and Hardaway).  This spells disaster for the Hoosiers.  From what I have seen from Crean so far this season is that he is pretty stubborn to change his lineups.  If this is the case, then freshman point guard Yogi Ferrell will be tasked to stay in front of Trey Burke.  While the freshman is improving as an on ball defender, the player of the year favorite is stronger, quicker, and smarter.  Jordan Hulls would then be responsible for Nik Stauskas.  Hulls is one of the Hoosiers weak spots on the defensive end, and this matchup is a big Michigan advantage.  Stauskas should be able to shoot over the top of the much shorter player, so Hulls only play is to run at the shooter to move him off the three point line.  The sharp shooting freshman has shown he is more than comfortable driving the ball to the basket.  Oladipo would be tasked with Hardaway.  This is an advantage for Indiana, however the Indiana leader gets a lot of his steals by playing help defense to stop penetration.  This could leave Hardaway open for a few jump shots, and if he is able to knock down a few early then the Hoosiers will be dealing with another All-American type player.  Christian Watford matched up against Glen Robinson III is another matchup that is very intriguing.  Watford is not as athletic as GRIII, but has an ability to create his own shot.  I think both teams will have the advantage on the offensive end.  Finally, the center position will likely see Horford against Zeller.  The Indiana player of the year candidate has shown a tendency to struggle against strong post players, but I don’t think Jon Horford really fits that mold.  The Michigan center will likely not demand enough attention and will allow Zeller to be a major shot blocking threat in the paint.  Indiana could also choose to drop back into a 2-3 zone, but Michigan will likely have 4 efficient three point shooters on the court at any time.  This zone strategy should blow up in Tom Crean’s face, unless the Wolverines have a terrible shooting night.

Switching over to the maize and blue, Michigan’s lineup will not change.  The center is the only questioned position.  If Jordan Morgan is able to play effectively, then we will again take over in the middle.  However, it seems likely that Jon Horford will get the start again.  The old AAU rivals (Burke & Ferrell) will be matched up against each other.  While Yogi is starting to break out of his shooting slump lately, he is still a pass first point guard.  In all of their previous matchups Burke had the upper hand, and I think that will continue on Saturday.  The Canadien sniper, or Molson Ice, will manned up against Jordan Hulls.  This will be a tough matchup for the freshman.  Even though Hulls is only 6’0” he is a crafty scorer with a wicked quick release.  Stauskas will have to stay in his back pocket and try to force him off the 3 point line where is much less efficient.  Michigan’s best on ball defender (Hardaway) will be matched against Oladipo, who is coming off 3 games averaging close to 20 points.  This is the matchup to look at while Michigan is on defense.  If Oladipo gets into a rhythm and becomes more aggressive on offense, the Wolverines will be in trouble.  Ideally Hardaway will be able to lock down the athletic wing with his length and keep him around 15 points.  The biggest part of this pairing will be how well Hardaway can keep Oladipo off of the offensive glass.  He is their second best offensive rebounder, and with Zeller having an advantage down low the rest of the Wolverine line up will have to lock down any rebound chances.  Little Dog, Glen Robinson III, also known as Light Rob, will have his hands full with Christian Watford.  If the senior comes out of the gates demanding the ball in the mid-post and exerting himself on the offensive end, Indiana will be very tough to beat.  One thing to look for with this matchup is Watford has had the tendency to disappear from the offensive game plan this season.  If this happens again, GRIII should be able to help on Zeller. This leaves us with Cody Zeller.  He leads the Hoosiers in scoring and rebounding.  A combination of Horford and McGary will be tasked to control the big man.  This is where Michigan will miss Jordan Morgan, if only because another body for 5 more fouls. The key to slowing down Zeller is to keep him out of the transition game where he is clearly more lethal.  Zeller is one of the most athletic centers in the country, so hedging on screens and recovering will become extremely important in this game. Michigan should be alright if Zeller gets his 20 points, but the Wolverines must limit his offensive rebounds.  It will a minor victory if Zeller scores most of his points from post entries and not 2^nd chance points. 

This game should be one of the best regular season matchups of the season.  While Oladipo is an outstanding individual defender, Indiana as a team is average.  Unless Michigan has just an awful shooting night or uncharacteristic unforced turnovers, the Wolverines should be able to hover around their offensive efficiency average (1.15-1.20ppp).  Since Indiana plays at a very high tempo, and Michigan is not scared of getting out in transition when possible, this game will likely have 67-70 possessions.  If Michigan plays to its normal output, it means the Wolverines should be looking to score around 80 points. Defensively, the maize and blue should be targeting to keep Indiana around 75 points or 1.10 ppp. The countdown to Saturday night has begun!

Northwestern Recap

Last night was Michigan’s first game of the season to play a repeat opponent as Northwestern came to Ann Arbor.  If you don’t remember the first meeting in the beginning of January, it was the Big Ten opener for both teams and the Wolverines came away with a 28 point victory.  Northwestern tried to run with Michigan and it became clear there are only a handful of teams that could even dream of being successful playing an up-tempo game against the maize and blue.  So it seemed obvious that Bill Carmody would want to slow down the pace of the contest in the second matchup.  It was the only part of the Wildcat’s game plan that worked; Northwestern did manage to limit the possessions.  It actually was the slowest tempo game of the season.  Michigan didn’t mind the change of pace, though, as they cruised to a 1.31 ppp game and another 20 point conference victory. 

Northwestern has to be ecstatic that the Wolverines are off their schedule now since the nation’s number one team has a combined 1.345 ppp in the two games against the Wildcats.  What is even more impressive is that Michigan has an efficiency margin of .415 ppp in these contests.  In case you were wondering, Michigan has been around a .25 ppp efficiency margin for the season so far.  It has to be frustrating to be a Northwestern fan because I thought the Wildcats played a great first half considering their opponent, but Michigan played a near perfect 20 minutes.  In the first frame, the Wolverines did not turn the ball over once and had a questionable loose ball foul in the last 2 minutes.  At one point the Wolverines were shooting 10-11 from the field, and finished the half over 60%.  I thought it was the best ball movement for an extended period of time that Michigan has shown this entire season.  Trey Burke had 10 points in the first 11 minutes, but still passed up multiple decent shot attempts to find a player with a better opportunity.  The biggest benefactor of this was Nik Stauskas, as Burke found him 3 times for wide open long distance attempts.  Tim Hardaway passed up a good look from the top of the key to find a rolling McGary for a layup.  GRIII also passed up a long two for an open shot from Hardaway.  It was a 20 minute clinic of basketball, but the scary thing is that the Wolverines weren’t even operating at full capability.  John Beilein is still introducing new aspects of the offense as the season goes on. The past two games Michigan has actually ran a few plays for the center position to create his own shot. 

Of course I was impressed with the offensive production in the first half and the last 9 minutes of the second.  Trey Burke is showing people why he should be the favorite for the player of the year awards, and each game the stat line looks a little different.  Burke, Hardaway, and Stauskas are all threats to score 18 or more in a game.  Robinson is still the fourth offensive option but can quietly score 15 or more.  Also, lately the center position is becoming yet another offensive weapon.  Horford and McGary combined for 16 points and 18 rebounds, and that is without the starter. 

Northwestern did not shoot the ball that well.  I think a lot of that had to do with their strategy to take the air out of the ball; most possessions the Wildcats did not start their offense until 10 seconds were left on the shot clock.  Michigan did a good job of closing out on shooters though, but Northwestern is a very limited offensive team.  The Wolverine defenders did not really have to worry about dribble penetration from anybody by Reggie Hearn.  For stretches of the game it seemed like Michigan really locked down on the defensive end, especially in the second half to put the game out of reach.  Still, it was a very good tune up game before the clash with Indiana on Saturday night.