While watching the National Championship I saw a Notre Dame
team not even on the same competitive level as Alabama. So the questions I was left asking myself
today, as a Michigan fan, is how far
away are the Wolverines from making a BCS Championship Game (or national
semifinal), secondly, and more importantly, how close is Michigan to really
competing against the SEC?
I actually believe the Wolverines are nearly talented enough
to be ranked in the top 2 or 4. The main
factor for a team coming from outside of the SEC is luck. If a Michigan team can stay healthy in a year
with a favorable schedule, they will always have a good chance of going
undefeated. And an undefeated maize and
blue team would be hard to pass over for the championship matchup. There are
2.5 games every season to really worry about (Ohio, Notre Dame, and Nebraska on
the road every-other year). This year, for example, I think Michigan is just as
talented as Notre Dame, but it was the Irish’s lucky season as 2006 was for
Michigan. Even if you take the past two
Wolverine seasons, most would agree that the team was better on January 2nd,
2013 than they were on January 4th, 2012. However, the standard that
programs get evaluated by is wins and losses, and there is a 3 win advantage
for the 2011-2012 Michigan Wolverines.
The second question is the more intriguing discussion. We were able to get a first-hand account of
the competitive gap between Alabama and U of M to open the past season, but how
far away is the maize and blue from leveling the playing field? In my mind the 3 biggest areas where the
Crimson Tide excels are: having dominant line play on both sides of the ball,
elite coaching which leads to impressive recruiting. This is the recipe for success for any
program that has been or will be considered a dynasty in the scholarship limitation
era.
Since Nick Saban has been in Tuscaloosa they have had
talented offensive and defensive lines, but this year they took another step,
somehow. Alabama’s offensive line was
the best I had ever seen in college football.
All 5 will be eventual starters in the NFL. Notre Dame’s front seven was being hyped as
the best in the game, and from the first play of the game it was clear that
Alabama was going to win the battle in the trenches. I think even Thomas Rawls
would look like an actual division 1 running back with those guys in front of
him. While Alabama’s defensive line didn’t get the attention that their
counterparts did, they were also able to control the line of scrimmage, absorb
blocks on a consistent basis to allow their 4 linebackers to have free angles
to the ball. The defensive line in a 3-4
scheme is not there to do a ton of penetration, but to occupy the 5 or 6
blockers in front of them. This unit did
this perfectly, and while Alabama’s pass rush wasn’t the best in the country, there
is not a quarterback out there that would be able to sit in the pocket all game
and get comfortable. Michigan has been
recruiting the offensive line harder than any other unit, this is partially due
just the sheer lack of bodies left from the Rich Rod days, but also because
Brady Hoke knows that you must be able to run the football to be successful. Whether you follow Oregon or Georgia Tech, if
they will ever win a national championship they will have an effective and
dominant offensive line in common. The
Wolverines have been pulling in more offensive line talent than anyone in the
country in the past two recruiting classes, and by the 2014 season you will see
the effects of that. Michigan could,
even, get lucky, and the 2013 line could be one of the best in the nation by
November. Greg Mattison favors the 4-3
defensive scheme, so the defensive line is more responsible for initiating a
pass rush. The lack of a dominant pass
rusher has been the reason the past two defenses could not be considered
elite. While the touted recruits have
been missing from the first 3 recruiting classes, Michigan has been bringing in
a lot of bodies with potential. The
exciting thing here is the Michigan coaching staff includes 3 coaches that are
defensive line guys, so I have full confidence that some of these defensive end
“projects” can develop into all conference type players. It will be interesting to see how Michigan can
close the 2013 recruiting class, but the way it looks right now an elite
defensive end will be a very high priority in the 2014 class.
With Bret Bielema leaving Wisconsin, us B1G folks keep
hearing the coaching disparity between the SEC and Big Ten continues to grow
and is a major reason that the southern teams have a leg up in recruiting and
national domination. To be honest
Bielema leaving was a surprise and a slap in the face to Wisconsin, and it
could look bad for the conference outside of Michigan and Ohio State. Nick Saban is the highest paid coach in
college football and with winning 4 national championships in the past 8 years I
think that is warranted. The Tide also
has multiple coaches on their staff that find their way to the head coaching
vacancy discussion every off-season. I
think a good leader is one who knows their own weaknesses and has the humility
to surround themselves with people to make a well-rounded, strong leadership
team. This is the first thing that
really impressed me about Brady Hoke, he has assembled one of the best coaching
staffs in the entire country. I think
the resources used to assemble the Michigan coaches is on par with those in the
SEC.
Top coaches lead to elite recruiting. This is the biggest step for Michigan to
overcome any SEC or even top ACC program.
While there is a scholarship limit in college football, the top programs
are able to bend these rules in their favor.
Over-signing has become a well-known activity in the landscape of the
BCS, the problem is that not every team is allowed to do this and no programs
should be allowed. A team like Alabama
can consistently pull in a top 5 recruiting class because they offer
scholarships on a one year basis. So
each off-season Nick Saban finds creative ways to trim the fat off the roster,
and restock with at least 25 more recruits. Over a 4 year period, Alabama accumulates
enough recruits to fill 5 classes. If
you are able to basically hold try-outs with your roster every season it will
ensure that only the best 85 will be on scholarship and the weak links are
replaced. It doesn’t look like the NCAA
is working too quickly to change this loophole.
In terms of the Michigan football program, the Big Ten does not allow
over-signing and Brady Hoke has recently begun handing out 4 year scholarships. This puts the Wolverines at a disadvantage
just in terms of numbers of recruits they will be able to sign each
season. If Michigan is ever going to
climb back onto the level of the SEC they will have to become extremely
efficient recruiters. Where SEC schools
can basically offer any and all of the top rated recruits without regard to
position, Michigan will have to rely heavily on talent evaluators, focus their
recruiting efforts on around 5 of the deemed top targets in regards to position
and skill, be able to land 75% or more of these targets, likely start offering
scholarships earlier in a high school career, and finally their recruit success
rate has to be extremely high. The
recruit success rate is how well a player can live up to coach’s expectations
when offered a scholarship in high school. Recruiting rankings are merely for the fans to
be able to follow college football year round.
If the coaches think a 2 star receiver can turn into the number 3 pick
in the NFL draft, Michigan recruits will have to meet or pass these
expectations. Will Campbell was one of
the top recruits in his class, but he has never been able to live up to that
hype. If he had committed to an SEC
school it is likely he would not be finishing his college career still on the
football team. At this point, Nick Saban
has accumulated a 2 deep roster that would likely include at least 20 All B1G players. This is Michigan’s biggest, but most
important, gap right now to focus on.
Continuing to add talented depth to the roster will be the key for the
Wolverines to compete on a national level.
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