Indiana vs Michigan Matchup Issues

As you might have recognized, I have stopped doing basketball previews to just focus on the post-game recaps.  But, I cannot contain my excitement for the upcoming showdown with Indiana.  It is the most hyped Michigan basketball game in my memory, and there are so many interesting topics to discuss.  Saturday’s game is one that matches the nation’s two best offenses, 2 national player of the year candidates, and likely 6 players that could be selected in this year’s NBA draft.  I only wish I could be a part of each coaching staff’s film and game planning session. 

Let’s start on the Indiana sideline.  The Hoosiers have been using a starting lineup of Yogi Ferrell, Jordan Hulls, Victor Oladipo, Christian Watford, and Cody Zeller.  It has been pretty successful on the offensive end; for example they scored 1.47 ppp last night against Purdue which, frankly, is unbelievable.  However, this lineup could present some matchup issues with the talented Wolverines.  Tom Crean has to be thinking the best way to slow down Michigan is to limit Trey Burke’s impact.  Trey is at his best when he can break down a defense off the dribble, get into the lane and finish at the rim, kick out to an open shooter, or hit a back cutter for a layup.  The Wolverine offense runs through Trey, so slowing him down is critical to limiting their efficiency.  The easy solution here for Indiana is to put the 6’5” Oladipo on Burke.  He is by far the Hoosier’s best on ball defender, and he would be able to use his length and quickness to really affect Trey.  By making this decision it leaves two 6’0” guards (Ferrell and Hulls) to try to match up with two 6’6”+ wing type players (Stauskas and Hardaway).  This spells disaster for the Hoosiers.  From what I have seen from Crean so far this season is that he is pretty stubborn to change his lineups.  If this is the case, then freshman point guard Yogi Ferrell will be tasked to stay in front of Trey Burke.  While the freshman is improving as an on ball defender, the player of the year favorite is stronger, quicker, and smarter.  Jordan Hulls would then be responsible for Nik Stauskas.  Hulls is one of the Hoosiers weak spots on the defensive end, and this matchup is a big Michigan advantage.  Stauskas should be able to shoot over the top of the much shorter player, so Hulls only play is to run at the shooter to move him off the three point line.  The sharp shooting freshman has shown he is more than comfortable driving the ball to the basket.  Oladipo would be tasked with Hardaway.  This is an advantage for Indiana, however the Indiana leader gets a lot of his steals by playing help defense to stop penetration.  This could leave Hardaway open for a few jump shots, and if he is able to knock down a few early then the Hoosiers will be dealing with another All-American type player.  Christian Watford matched up against Glen Robinson III is another matchup that is very intriguing.  Watford is not as athletic as GRIII, but has an ability to create his own shot.  I think both teams will have the advantage on the offensive end.  Finally, the center position will likely see Horford against Zeller.  The Indiana player of the year candidate has shown a tendency to struggle against strong post players, but I don’t think Jon Horford really fits that mold.  The Michigan center will likely not demand enough attention and will allow Zeller to be a major shot blocking threat in the paint.  Indiana could also choose to drop back into a 2-3 zone, but Michigan will likely have 4 efficient three point shooters on the court at any time.  This zone strategy should blow up in Tom Crean’s face, unless the Wolverines have a terrible shooting night.

Switching over to the maize and blue, Michigan’s lineup will not change.  The center is the only questioned position.  If Jordan Morgan is able to play effectively, then we will again take over in the middle.  However, it seems likely that Jon Horford will get the start again.  The old AAU rivals (Burke & Ferrell) will be matched up against each other.  While Yogi is starting to break out of his shooting slump lately, he is still a pass first point guard.  In all of their previous matchups Burke had the upper hand, and I think that will continue on Saturday.  The Canadien sniper, or Molson Ice, will manned up against Jordan Hulls.  This will be a tough matchup for the freshman.  Even though Hulls is only 6’0” he is a crafty scorer with a wicked quick release.  Stauskas will have to stay in his back pocket and try to force him off the 3 point line where is much less efficient.  Michigan’s best on ball defender (Hardaway) will be matched against Oladipo, who is coming off 3 games averaging close to 20 points.  This is the matchup to look at while Michigan is on defense.  If Oladipo gets into a rhythm and becomes more aggressive on offense, the Wolverines will be in trouble.  Ideally Hardaway will be able to lock down the athletic wing with his length and keep him around 15 points.  The biggest part of this pairing will be how well Hardaway can keep Oladipo off of the offensive glass.  He is their second best offensive rebounder, and with Zeller having an advantage down low the rest of the Wolverine line up will have to lock down any rebound chances.  Little Dog, Glen Robinson III, also known as Light Rob, will have his hands full with Christian Watford.  If the senior comes out of the gates demanding the ball in the mid-post and exerting himself on the offensive end, Indiana will be very tough to beat.  One thing to look for with this matchup is Watford has had the tendency to disappear from the offensive game plan this season.  If this happens again, GRIII should be able to help on Zeller. This leaves us with Cody Zeller.  He leads the Hoosiers in scoring and rebounding.  A combination of Horford and McGary will be tasked to control the big man.  This is where Michigan will miss Jordan Morgan, if only because another body for 5 more fouls. The key to slowing down Zeller is to keep him out of the transition game where he is clearly more lethal.  Zeller is one of the most athletic centers in the country, so hedging on screens and recovering will become extremely important in this game. Michigan should be alright if Zeller gets his 20 points, but the Wolverines must limit his offensive rebounds.  It will a minor victory if Zeller scores most of his points from post entries and not 2^nd chance points. 

This game should be one of the best regular season matchups of the season.  While Oladipo is an outstanding individual defender, Indiana as a team is average.  Unless Michigan has just an awful shooting night or uncharacteristic unforced turnovers, the Wolverines should be able to hover around their offensive efficiency average (1.15-1.20ppp).  Since Indiana plays at a very high tempo, and Michigan is not scared of getting out in transition when possible, this game will likely have 67-70 possessions.  If Michigan plays to its normal output, it means the Wolverines should be looking to score around 80 points. Defensively, the maize and blue should be targeting to keep Indiana around 75 points or 1.10 ppp. The countdown to Saturday night has begun!

Northwestern Recap

Last night was Michigan’s first game of the season to play a repeat opponent as Northwestern came to Ann Arbor.  If you don’t remember the first meeting in the beginning of January, it was the Big Ten opener for both teams and the Wolverines came away with a 28 point victory.  Northwestern tried to run with Michigan and it became clear there are only a handful of teams that could even dream of being successful playing an up-tempo game against the maize and blue.  So it seemed obvious that Bill Carmody would want to slow down the pace of the contest in the second matchup.  It was the only part of the Wildcat’s game plan that worked; Northwestern did manage to limit the possessions.  It actually was the slowest tempo game of the season.  Michigan didn’t mind the change of pace, though, as they cruised to a 1.31 ppp game and another 20 point conference victory. 

Northwestern has to be ecstatic that the Wolverines are off their schedule now since the nation’s number one team has a combined 1.345 ppp in the two games against the Wildcats.  What is even more impressive is that Michigan has an efficiency margin of .415 ppp in these contests.  In case you were wondering, Michigan has been around a .25 ppp efficiency margin for the season so far.  It has to be frustrating to be a Northwestern fan because I thought the Wildcats played a great first half considering their opponent, but Michigan played a near perfect 20 minutes.  In the first frame, the Wolverines did not turn the ball over once and had a questionable loose ball foul in the last 2 minutes.  At one point the Wolverines were shooting 10-11 from the field, and finished the half over 60%.  I thought it was the best ball movement for an extended period of time that Michigan has shown this entire season.  Trey Burke had 10 points in the first 11 minutes, but still passed up multiple decent shot attempts to find a player with a better opportunity.  The biggest benefactor of this was Nik Stauskas, as Burke found him 3 times for wide open long distance attempts.  Tim Hardaway passed up a good look from the top of the key to find a rolling McGary for a layup.  GRIII also passed up a long two for an open shot from Hardaway.  It was a 20 minute clinic of basketball, but the scary thing is that the Wolverines weren’t even operating at full capability.  John Beilein is still introducing new aspects of the offense as the season goes on. The past two games Michigan has actually ran a few plays for the center position to create his own shot. 

Of course I was impressed with the offensive production in the first half and the last 9 minutes of the second.  Trey Burke is showing people why he should be the favorite for the player of the year awards, and each game the stat line looks a little different.  Burke, Hardaway, and Stauskas are all threats to score 18 or more in a game.  Robinson is still the fourth offensive option but can quietly score 15 or more.  Also, lately the center position is becoming yet another offensive weapon.  Horford and McGary combined for 16 points and 18 rebounds, and that is without the starter. 

Northwestern did not shoot the ball that well.  I think a lot of that had to do with their strategy to take the air out of the ball; most possessions the Wildcats did not start their offense until 10 seconds were left on the shot clock.  Michigan did a good job of closing out on shooters though, but Northwestern is a very limited offensive team.  The Wolverine defenders did not really have to worry about dribble penetration from anybody by Reggie Hearn.  For stretches of the game it seemed like Michigan really locked down on the defensive end, especially in the second half to put the game out of reach.  Still, it was a very good tune up game before the clash with Indiana on Saturday night. 

Michigan Football: 2014 Recruiting Needs

I have been focusing most of my blogging efforts on Michigan basketball in this new year, but the football team also needs some attention as National Signing Day draws closer.  In case you were without internet in Gobles, lost at sea, or trapped under an avalanche you saw that Michigan received their 27^th verbal commitment for the 2013 recruiting class.  This one from Derrick Green, one of the best running backs in the entire country.  Last year, Brady Hoke and the staff seemed to miss on the elite recruits choosing schools near signing day, but this year they filled one of the biggest offensive needs with a guy that should be ready to go for the 2013 season opener. I have to admit, since Green lives in Virginia I have only seen his highlight films and his work in the Army All-American Game.  So I cannot comment on how well his game will translate to the Big Ten, especially as a true freshman coming to Ann Arbor this summer. However, as signing day is one week away, it looks like the 2013 recruiting class is all but wrapped up. This means it is time to look forward to 2014. 

Let’s take a look at Michigan’s biggest needs in the next recruiting class.  Brady Hoke has signed big classes the last two seasons, which means because the Wolverines follow the rules; the 2014 class will have a smaller maximum number of recruits allowed.  It is likely the class will be no larger than 20 new signees. 

Offense:

1.       Elite wide receiver prospects would be the next step to bringing the Michigan offense back a dangerous unit.  While we have yet to see just how good Jehu Chesson and Amara Darboh are, the talk around bowl practice is that they are coming along nicely and should be able to contribute next year. Even if these guys live up to expectations, it would be nice to see Hoke and Co close the deal on a top flight pass catcher with a ceiling of being an NFL starter.  With the restricted number of recruits this class will allow, Michigan will likely be looking for 2 receivers.  Hopefully one of them will be destined to wear the number 1 jersey.

2.       Quarterback depth.  It is looking likely that Devin Gardner will get his medical redshirt which lets the coaching staff off the hook for not taking a signal caller in the 2012 class. The staff has done a great job at building depth at positions of greater need so far, and I would say quarterback is high on the priority list for 2014.  It seems unlikely that the Wolverines will be able to pull in another top tier talent for the second straight year, but it would be great to grab someone that can push Shane Morris and jump Bellomy on the depth chart.

3.       Offensive Tackle.  This might seem a little crazy since Michigan has pulled in 10 offensive linemen the past two seasons, but a lot of the 2012/2013 recruits translate to the interior line. Since Coach Hoke believes the key to winning Big Ten Championships is dominating in the trenches, it is likely the Wolverines will take 3 more offensive linemen (2 OTs and 1 OG/C).  The staff will likely take another project type tackle that is a very raw talent, but then focus on two more polished players.  Any offensive lineman recruit in the 2014 class will be slotted to redshirt.

4.       Running Back. Yes, Michigan just secured one of the best running back hauls in the entire country in the 2013 class.  I think both Green and Smith will be productive backs in the winged helmet, possibly as early as next year if Fitz Toussaint can’t return fully healthy.  The Wolverines are used to a stable of running backs on the roster.  Right now Michigan has a number of guys with RB next to their name, but most of them are just guys and not game-changers.  I would expect Brady Hoke to take at least one running back in every class. 

5.       The fifth and final spot is more difficult to choose between 1 more top end complete tight end and a center.  Personally I think getting another interior lineman that can play center or guard is more important, but Al Borges loves tight ends more than Fred Jackson loves his running backs.  This is another position group that I expect the coaching staff to pull in at least one player from each year.  If Michigan cannot get a commitment from a tight end prospect that they are in love with I would like to see them use the extra spot for an under the radar slot receiver/ returner type player or another offensive lineman.

Defense/ Special Teams:

1.       Elite pass rushing weak-side defensive ends.  If you have been following the 2014 offer sheet it is obvious that this position is likely the most important of the entire class.  Michigan is currently in the top five of some of the best defensive ends in the country, including the top overall prospect Da’Shawn Hand and 2^nd ranked DE Malik McDowell from Detroit.  The past two classes seemed to focus on top end interior defensive lineman and a number of solid SDE type guys, but an elite pass rusher from the WDE position is a big area that is holding this defense back from truly being dominant.  It seems likely that Michigan will take at least 3 defensive ends; hopefully 2 are of the elite pass rusher type.

2.       Cornerbacks.  If you watched the bowl game against South Carolina you know the defensive backfield is lacking top end talent and depth.  The coaches focused on this position in the 2013 class, but after Gareon Conley switched commitments to Ohio State the need in 2014 is still there.  I think the depth is starting to be built back up, but Michigan is still lacking the top end lock down cornerback that can take away a portion of the field.  One good thing is that we play in the Big Ten where elite quarterbacks are few and far between, but to compete on a national level the cornerback position needs to be upgraded.  Like the defensive end group, Brady Hoke has spent a lot of time and effort on this position in the 2014 class so far.  Even though top in-state recruit, Damon Webb, committed to Ohio for some reason, breaking the Cass Tech chain; Michigan is in the top 5 of many other top tier cornerbacks. Look for Michigan to want to take 2 polished players and another project type.

3.       Safety.  The other half of the defensive backfield is the safety position.  Next year we will see how important Jordan Kovacs was to leading Mattison’s defense.  Jarrod Wilson saw some time last season and showed some potential, hopefully he can make a big jump to sophomore year.  Also, Dymonte Thomas is the recruit I am most excited for in the 2013 class.  It is possible the top end talent is on (or will be soon) the roster, but Michigan needs more depth.  I think the Wolverines will take at least one player that will project to safety, although it might be a cornerback/ safety type prospect.

4.       Linebacker.  Michael Ferns is already on board for 2014, which will likely leave one open slot.  I think the current linebackers on the roster, combined with the two in 2013 make this an area of strength for Michigan.  It still would be nice to see Brady Hoke be able to land an elite MLB type guy.

5.       The last position I will mention is the interior defensive line.  I do think if Henry Poggi stays with Michigan, teamed up with Ondre Pipkens, makes a feared defensive tackle combination.  Again this is an area of depth development.  If Michigan can grab a pass rusher or two, I think Ann Arbor becomes a destination for a top end defensive tackle to make the Wolverines defensive line as feared as that school 3 hours south. 

Sports Illustrated recently published a story that mentions Brady Hoke recruiting at an elite level during his time in Ann Arbor.  While I think that is mostly true, next year will be interesting to see if Michigan can land some top end skill positions.  The coaching staff has done a good job at building depth on both lines and grabbing some solid linebackers, but to take the next step they will need to increase the talent level of the wide receivers, defensive backfield, and weak-side defensive ends.

B1G Update

The conference’s top teams are now entering their toughest stretch of the season.  The conference standings in two weeks could be the soonest we find out the most accurate representation of the final outcome.  Minnesota continued their slide downward, but the Gophers are so talented they have to rise back up again, right?  Michigan State had the best week of any B1G team, and the Spartans are actually looking like a title contender.

1.       Michigan (no change)

Michigan handled a scrappy Purdue team at home and went to Illinois to win an up and down contest.  The Wolverines are once again ranked number 1 in the country, but the latest bump in the standings came with a significant loss.  Jordan Morgan suffered an ankle sprain, and it is unknown how long he will be out.  If I would have to guess, I would think the starting center might be ready for Ohio State next Tuesday.  That could be optimistic at this point.  The gift for Michigan finally getting back to number 1 is a rematch with Northwestern and a trip to Bloomington.  Will Michigan separate themselves or leave the top of the conference a muddy mess.

2.       Indiana (no change)

Indiana got healthy again last week with a trouncing of B1G punching bag, Penn State.  Then the Hoosiers welcomed Michigan State to Assembly Hall and scrapped out a hard fought 5 point win.  It wasn’t the cleanest played game, as both Indiana and Michigan State struggle with turnovers.  The game did have a number of momentum changing plays throughout, and was pretty entertaining.  After the game, however, I think we found out more about the Spartans abilities than Indiana’s home court dominance.

3.       Michigan State (up 2)

The Spartans traveled to the Kohl Center and beat Wisconsin in the ugliest B1G game of the year.  I thought the Ohio State/ Michigan State game would have a chance, but the Spartans really outdid themselves in this one. But then they bounce back with one of the more entertaining conference games of the year, at Indiana. As much as I don’t want to say this, Michigan State is a legitimate B1G title contender.

4.       Ohio State (no change)

The Buckeyes held serve last week with wins against Iowa and Penn State. Ohio State is still looking for a secondary offensive option, but at this point in the season it looks unlikely.  It is another winnable week for Thad Matta’s crew with games against Wisconsin and Nebraska.   

5.       Wisconsin (up 1)

The Badgers were riding high after their big win at Indiana, but they lost to Iowa and Michigan State in back to back games.  This is a statement week for Bo Ryan’s team with road games against Ohio State and Illinois.  Going 2-0 this week will really impact the regular season championship.   

6.       Minnesota (down 3)

Minnesota continued its head scratching slide.  The Gophers have now lost 4 games in a row, adding Northwestern and Wisconsin to the mix.  For some reason one of the conference’s best offenses can barely score 50 points right now.  This team is too talented to finish under the top 4 of the conference.  They need to bounce back with wins against Nebraska and Iowa.

7.       Purdue (up 1)

Somehow Purdue continues to claw its way up the conference standings.  They hung tough with Michigan on the road and then beat Iowa over the weekend.  The Boilermakers will not make the tournament this week, but they are learning how to play together and win together.  If Purdue can get to 9 wins in the conference this year, Matt Painter should be considered for the coach of the year.

8.       Iowa (down 1)

Iowa was my dark horse choice in the Big Ten this season, but I can no longer continue to think they are an NCAA tournament team.  The Hawkeyes might have just lost a back breaker to Purdue over the weekend, and now will have to pull off one more major upset to even get the selection committee to notice them come March.  The Hawkeyes are definitely inexperienced and will need to continue learning how to win, but I still expect them to impact the conference race by upsetting a top team at some point.

9.       Illinois (no change)

Illinois got a blowout win over Nebraska but then struggled against Michigan at home.  Illinois continues to slide down the brackets, and will need a big win soon to stay on a tournament line.  This week the Illini have to travel to the Breslin to face Michigan State and then they play Wisconsin at home.  I think Illinois will have to at least one game this week to keep any hope of an at large NCAA tournament bid alive.

10.   Northwestern (no change)

The Wildcats continue to fight hard, but they are inconsistent.  They beat Minnesota on Wednesday and then lost at Nebraska by 15.  This conference is extremely tough, especially when you are missing your top talent.  The road doesn’t get any easier this week with a road trip to Crisler and a home game against the Boilermakers.

11.   Nebraska (no change)

Nebraska beat Northwestern at home, but I kept the Huskers in the number 11 spot because of the Wildcats win over Minnesota.  Nebraska is still playing hard and teams cannot have an off night when they travel to Lincoln.

12.   Penn State (no change)

The gap between Penn State and Nebraska continues to grow.    

Illinois Recap

Michigan traveled to Illinois to play in the first Assembly Hall of the week.  In case you are forgetting where this program has come from, the Wolverines snapped a 13 game losing streak on this floor with their win last season.  While the Illini have been struggling so far in conference play, this is still the same team with double digit wins against Butler, Gonzaga, and Ohio State.  According to the most recent polls, each of those wins is more impressive than Michigan’s best (Kansas State).  Also, it was another game that the young Wolverines had a number one ranking over their head.  All of this to say, Sunday night’s game was not going to be one to overlook.  While Michigan might not have played their best game, they looked dominant at times and finished with another double digit conference win. 

John Groce implemented the same defensive strategy on Sunday as he did last March while coaching the Ohio Bobcats.  Illinois began the game by switching on every ball screen, and this resulted in multiple possessions where Burke was defended by Egwu, the Illini center.   The Michigan offense was confused by this strategy at times.  Burke’s biggest weakness is his height, and by putting the 6’10” defender in front of him it limited his ability to find the mismatch now on the block.  Trey then settled for multiple long distance two point shots, which are the lowest efficiency shot in basketball.  Once the Wolverines adjusted, by attacking the basket more and running Stauskas off of screens, Michigan scored more than 1 point per possession again.  Burke led all scorers with 19 points, but it was one of his most inefficient games of the season. 

Jordan Morgan went down in the first 2 minutes of the game with a nasty looking ankle sprain.  This put a lot of pressure on Horford, McGary, and Biefeldt, but all three guys stepped up and played quality minutes.  The center position notched 17 points and 14 rebounds, and that is without the best player of the group.  Morgan’s absence was noticed on the defensive end of the floor, however.  I think we have taken for granted just how athletic big number 52 is.  While he is lacking height to be a truly elite offensive center, his quickness allows him to be a shutdown defensive presence. Illinois was able to corral 41% of their misses, which is drastically better than what they were averaging in Big Ten play so far. 

Even though Sunday’s game was not Michigan’s best of the season, the Wolverine’s clearly looked like the best team in the country.  At one point late in the first half Michigan was only up by 3 after an Illinois three, and my wife walked into the room to ask how the Wolverines were faring.  By the time I was done expressing my frustration, Michigan finished the half on a 7-2 run to expand the lead to 8.  This even included a missed free throw to push the lead closer to double digits.  Each time Illinois threatened the lead with a run, Michigan was able to flex their muscles and pull the lead back out to around 15.  They were in complete control of the game, even when it wasn’t their best game and Michigan was playing on the road.  This team is impressive; enjoy the ride because this level of effectiveness is not sustainable over a long period of time.

Looking forward, the Wolverines get to head back to the confines of Crisler for a rematch against Northwestern on Wednesday.  Then Michigan heads to Bloomington for the regular season game everyone has been waiting for, the game against Indiana.  Hopefully Morgan’s injury is not as serious as it looked and he is able to play a few minutes against the Wildcats or at least Indiana.  Michigan will need him to be able to slow down Zeller, as the other big men are not quick enough to stay in front of him.  It could be a long night trying to rebound against Indiana without Morgan, since Zeller, Watford and Oladipo will crash the glass all night.  If you do not think Michigan will miss their starting center, the Big Ten Network just compiled a number of defensive stats around the conference and Morgan was selected as the best defender in the entire league.  The Wolverines are definitely not at full strength without Jordan Morgan, and it comes at a bad time with the toughest 4 game stretch of the season on the horizon.    

Justin's College Basketball Polls

The college basketball top ten has been widely debated so far this season.  There are many teams that feel they have a claim on the number one spot.  I wanted to put together a poll that acknowledges a team for how they are playing at this moment. 

1. Michigan

The Wolverines picked up a huge win at Minnesota last week.  At the time it was one of the most impressive B1G conference wins, but now the Gophers seem to be fading a bit.  This spot is also easy to decipher now with Duke getting shellacked last night in Miami.  Michigan is the country’s best offense, and they currently stand 2^nd in efficiency margin.  Which I happen to feel is more impressive than number 1 Florida in the terrible SEC. 

2. Kansas

The Jayhawks fall into this second slot by default.  Kansas has been on the verge of losing the past two games, but have emerged atop of the Big 12.  Like the SEC, this conference is horrible this season.  While the Jayhawks will likely only lose 2 more games, at the most, I do not think they are athletic enough to keep up with the team above them. 

3. Florida

The Gators are superstars in every efficiency department currently.  If the season ended today, Florida would be the 2^nd best team in the history of college basketball according to offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. This could get into the WAR stat of the MVP race last year where people actually thought Mike Trout should have won.  The good thing about this stat, it happens to be a team award and college basketball has a tournament to decide everything. Florida is ripping apart the inept SEC.  Their 17 point win over Georgia last night was the closest game they have played in conference play.  It looks like Florida will be playing themselves into a number 1 seed with the top teams in the Big East and B1G beating each other up.

4. Syracuse

The Orange went into Louisville and beat the Cardinals on their home court.  Most ESPN analysts have been fawning over Louisville this season, so now the hype meter moves to ‘Cuse. However they happen to be without their 2^nd leading scorer with academic issues, and it is unknown when he will return.  The Big East as a conference seems to personify New York City style basketball, athletic players who have more success with slashing to the basket.  The Syracuse standard 2-3 zone works perfectly to pack in the middle and challenge teams to shoot more jump shots.  What happens when they play some of the elite jump shooting teams?

5. Louisville

The Cardinals are still one of the toughest teams in the nation.  It will be interesting to see if they can go into the Carrier Dome and beat Syracuse the 2^nd time around. At this time, Rick Pitino’s crew is on the outside looking in for the final number 1 seed.  This is a very guard oriented, high pressure team.  The over-aggressive style of play will hurt them when they face a team with elite ball handlers (think Trey Burke).

6. Indiana

The Hoosiers were upset at home against Wisconsin and bounced back with a lackluster effort against Northwestern.  Indiana seemed to get back on track a bit with a dominating win over the B1G bottom dweller, Penn State.  This weekend will be another good barometer of where the B1G sits when Michigan State travels to Bloomington.  The Hoosiers are still one of the most athletic teams in the country, but they seem to lose focus at key times.  The physicality of Wisconsin really frustrated Cody Zeller and company, will Michigan State be able to do the same?

7. Duke

Yes the 27 point loss against an average Miami team might be weighing in this decision more than it should, but I can’t help it.  I just can’t see any team above them losing by nearly 30 points, even if on a road trip.  Duke is really missing Ryan Kelly right now.  NC State gave the ACC a blue print of how to beat this team right now, and Miami followed it perfectly.  Collapse the middle after Plumlee receives a post pass.  Make him play against 3 defenders and make a decision under pressure.  This has led to turnovers and contested shots.  When the ball is passed out to the perimeter, the defense closes hard and forces the ball off the 3 point line.  Duke’s best shooters were a combined 1-29 last night.  The ACC is really down this year so Duke will be able to right the ship with a slim chance of losing the rest of the regular season.  If Ryan Kelly comes back, nobody will want to see the Dukies in their bracket.

8. Michigan State

This might be a shock to some people, but the Spartans just completed the best 2 game stretch of the B1G season thus far.  Saturday night they defeated Ohio State and then traveled to Wisconsin to beat the Badgers in the Kohl Center.  Yes, both wins were extremely ugly.  Yes, the Spartans still have some major questions on the offensive end.  But in the B1G, their physical defensive play will affect most teams to keep the scores low.  I still wouldn’t say the Spartans are national title contenders, and I am not sure if I would put them in the top tier of the B1G yet.  However, the past two wins are impressive and has Tom Izzo’s squad on the upswing.

9. Arizona

Yes the Wildcats only have 1 loss so far, but they should have 3.  I have not been impressed with Zona this season, their soft schedule coupled with the Pac 12 being useless for yet another year has given the Wildcats an inflated record.  They are a finesse team that would struggle against any team with some post strength.  I am a little B1G biased, but I think Arizona would struggle to finish in the top 4 of the best conference.

10. Gonzaga

I know the Zags just lost at Butler, but that was a heck of a basketball game.  Gonzaga has one of the most balanced scoring attacks in the country.  They can play a slow paced game, or keep up in a high scoring contest.  Since the Bulldogs play in a lower level conference they will likely run to another league title.  Gonzaga could end with an inflated record, but this is a team I wouldn’t want to face on a neutral court come March.

Michigan High School State Rankings

To go along with the Mr. Basketball update from yesterday I thought I would give a Michigan high school power rankings since most teams are half way through the season.  The preseason favorites are still holding up quite nicely so far.  However, the problem with the playoffs is that they are broken up by location and not by trying to get the best championship game.  It is likely that the best two teams in each class will meet before the semi-final round, which means the regionals and quarterfinals will have some quality matchups.

Class A:

1. Detroit Pershing, 12-0

The Doughboys are led by a Division 1 laden back court of Martez Walker and Khalil Felder.  This is the easy choice right now since Pershing has played one of the toughest schedules and their record is still unblemished.  Quality wins include Romulus, Detroit Consortium, Detroit Community, Detroit Douglass, Detroit Southeastern, and Flint Beecher.  The only matchup they are missing from that resume is Detroit Country Day. 

2. Romulus, 8-1

The Eagles have been the preseason favorites each of the past 3 seasons, but they have yet to bring home the trophy at the end of the year.  I personally think a lot of that falls on their head coach.  Romulus has quality wins over Dearborn Heights Robichaud, Lansing Sexton, Detroit Community, and Indianapolis Cathedral.  If the Eagles can finish their season with only 1 regular season loss they could push for the number 1 spot again.  They have upcoming games against Detroit Country Day, Detroit Consortium, Rochester, and Saginaw.

3. Arthur Hill, 11-0

The Lumberjacks are back folks, Saginaw High has been dominating the basketball hotbed over the past few seasons but Arthur Hill will be a state contender the next three seasons because of top sophomore Eric Davis.  While Hill hasn’t played nearly the competition the top two have played to this point, they also haven’t lost yet.  On a side note, it is looking like Arthur Hill has the clearest path to the state finals where they should meet either Pershing or Romulus.  A win over Saginaw is the best victory so far, but the Lumberjacks still have to play at Detroit Country Day and at Saginaw. 

Honorable mention: Rochester Adams 9-0, Saginaw 12-1, Detroit Southeastern 9-3, and Detroit Cass Tech 10-1

Class B:

1. Detroit Country Day, 10-2

The Yellow jackets took a backseat to Lansing Sexton the past 2 seasons, but are back on top in 2012-13.  While the top end talent might not be the best Kurt Keener has had during his time at DCD, but this team is extremely balanced.  Country Day is led by Edmond Summer, Mory Diane, and Poet Thomas.  The two losses have come at the hands of La Lumiere from Indiana and Detroit Consortium.  The quality wins are Walled Lake Western and Southfield Christian.  The Yellow Jackets still have games against Inter-City Baptist, Romulus, Orchard Lake St. Mary, Arthur Hill, and Melvindale AB&T.

2. Godwin Heights, 9-0

The Wolverines are one of the best teams on the west side of the state.  So while they do not play the gauntlet of schedule that the teams around them do, they are collecting impressive wins at each stop.  The quality wins have come against Wayland, Tri-Unity Christian, and NorthPointe Christian.

3. Harper Woods Chandler Park Academy, 8-3

CPA is led by future Wolverine Derrick Walton.  While this might be the best team Chandler Park has assembled, they lack a powerful post presence which will make their matchup with Detroit Country Day in the regionals pretty difficult.  The three losses have come against Detroit Southeastern, Detroit Pershing, and Saginaw.  The quality wins are Detroit Cass Tech, Rochester, and Toledo Rogers.  The remaining schedule is pretty favorable, so look for CPA to finish with at most 4 losses in the regular season.

Honorable mention: Stevensville Lakeshore 9-0, Lansing Sexton 6-2, Dearborn Heights Robichaud 6-2, and Dowagiac 9-1

Class C:

1. Detroit Consortium, 7-2

The Cougars might be the most talented team in the state.  Thy have played an extremely tough schedule so far and have only lost twice.  They are led by Mr. Basketball contender Vincent Hunter and all world freshman Josh Jackson.  Consortium has lost to Detroit Pershing and Evansville Harrison from Indiana.  The quality wins have come against Detroit Douglass, Hyde Park from Chicago, Toledo Scott, and Detroit Country Day. They also have upcoming games against Romulus, Dearborn Heights Robichaud, and Detroit Community.

2. Flint Beecher, 10-1

Monte Morris leads the Bucs for his 4^th and final season.  I know Consortium is loaded with talent, as they have been the past two years, but the Bucs are a solid team with great leadership.  Beecher is still in a conference so their schedule is a little restricted for non-conference opponents.  Even still, the Bucs led Detroit Pershing by 18 points until Khalil Felder went off.  Beecher has good wins against Flint Powers Catholic and Flint Northern. 

3. Grandville Calvin Christian, 11-0

The Squires always seem to rack up a lot of regular season wins and are near the top of the rankings, but they have struggled to get out of regionals.  Maybe this year will be different?  Calvin Christian has quality wins over Grandville, Grand Rapids South Christian, Wyoming Tri-Unity Christian, and Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian.

Honorable Mention: Muskegon Heights 9-1, Traverse City St. Francis 11-0, Melvindale AB&T 6-0, and Detroit Loyola 6-2

Class D:

1. Allen Park Inter-City Baptist, 9-1

The Chargers have been near the top of the rankings for the past few seasons, but they have ran into the eventual state champions early in the post season.  It is looking like Inter-City is one of the favorites to make the finals this season.  They have lost to Grosse Point University Ligget, but have beat Southfield Christian.  The Chargers also have an upcoming game against Detroit Country Day that should give a good litmus test.

2. Wyoming Tri-Unity Christian, 8-2

The Defenders are probably the most known Class D team in the state. They are at it again this season.  Tri-Unity has lost to Grandville Calvin Christian and Wyoming Godwin Heights.  The Defenders have wins against Jenison, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central, and Hudsonville.  Tri-Unity has some big strong post players that could give the smaller, quicker east side teams some problems once they meet at the Breslin. 

3. Southfield Christian, 6-4

The defending Class D champions have had a rough year so far, but once they start playing only other Class D teams in the tournament the Eagles should be poised for another deep run.  They are led by sophomore point guard Bakari Evelyn who is starting to get noticed by a lot of Division 1 schools.  Southfield Christian has lost to Southfield-Lathrup, Walled Lake Western, Detroit Country Day, and Inter-City Baptist.  The Eagles do have wins over Orchard Lark St. Mary and Southfield. 

Honorable Mention: Climax Scotts 10-0, Cedarville 10-1, Frankfort 8-0, and Sacred Heart Academy 8-1

Statewide:

1. Detroit Pershing

2. Romulus

3. Detroit Consortium

4. Detroit Country Day

5. Saginaw Arthur Hill

Michigan Mr. Basketball Update

The Mr. Basketball competition for 2012 is becoming more defined.  Although this award is given to the state’s “top” senior, the best players in Michigan very well could be underclassmen.  This year’s likely ballot consists of 5 big name players that should be impact players on the next level. 

5. Vincent Hunter Detroit Consortium Class C, committed to UTEP

The 6’7” wing is leading one of the most talented teams in the entire state.  Hunter is scoring 21 ppg while averaging 14 rebounds every contest.  He currently plays more of a power forward role, and is mostly indefensible in Class C.  While Hunter will need to continue to improve his perimeter game for college, he will continue to put up big numbers against the smaller schools.  He reminds me of a less talented LaDonte Henton from Lansing Eastern (currently at Providence).  Consortium just upset Detroit Country Day, one of the current Class B favorites.  Hunter will have to continue to put up big numbers against notable teams like Romulus and Detroit Community to get people to notice his name more.

4. Khalil Felder Detroit Pershing Class A, committed to Oakland

The 5’9” point guard has emerged as the best player on a Doughboy roster loaded with talented guards.  Felder is currently averaging 23 ppg, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists.  Pershing is looking like the favorite in Class A if Felder can stay healthy.  The Doughboy offense looks completely different in the 3 games Felder missed so far.  From what I have seen from Khalil, if he was 2+ inches taller with the same skill set he would be one of the highest rated recruits in the country.  Even at 5’9”, Oakland has themselves their point guard of the future.

3. James Young Rochester Class A, committed to Kentucky

Young is a 6’7” wing player that is rated as the 6^th best player in the country, according to ESPN.  Just going by recruiting rankings, Young is the highest rated player I have seen live.  This “should” mean he is the best player I have seen.  However, I am just not a big James Young fan at this point in his career.  While Young does average 26 ppg and around 7 rebounds, it usually takes him 18+ shots per game to get his points.  It seems that he is just skimming his basketball potential, but he looks content at that.  Young takes multiple plays off on the defensive end, and just hides on the perimeter during some offensive possessions.  While Derrick Walton is lower on the rankings, and at least 5 inches shorter, he completely outplayed Young in their matchup.  James Young finished with 21 points, on 26 shots.  Walton played stronger and was able to keep Young at the 3 point line.  The more disappointing thing was that the number 6 player in the country did not match up with Walton on the defensive side. I think there is a reason that the local teams are letting Young pass under their nose.

2. Derrick Walton Harper Woods Chandler Park Academy Class B, committed to Michigan

This is where the Mr. Basketball competition becomes a popularity contest.  I believe Walton is the best senior basketball player in the state of Michigan.  He continues to improve as a distributor, and is CPA’s best defender.  Of course Walton also has a killer jump shot and can score at will in the Academy league.  So far, Derrick is averaging 24 points per game, 7 assists, 4 steals, and only turning the ball over twice per contest. After sitting out a game with concussion-like symptoms, he came back with a 21 point 20 assist game in a 62 point win.  Yes, the competition was lacking, but 20 assists in a 32 minute high school game is pretty impressive.  While Walton might be robbed of the state’s top honor, leading his CPA team to a state championship in Class B would be an amazing feat.

1. Monte Morris Flint Beecher Class C, committed to Iowa State

Michigan offered Morris and Walton at their summer camp before each of their junior seasons.  Walton committed first, and Michigan could not take 2 point guards in the same class.  So, Iowa State is getting a very good basketball player.  Most people in the state should know who Morris is at this point.  He has led his team to the state semifinals the past 3 seasons, with Beecher completing their first undefeated season last year.  And this year is supposed to be the better team.  The Buc’s 38 game winning streak was just snapped by a valiant come back by Class A favorite, Pershing.  Morris is the walking triple double, averaging 20 points, 10 rebounds, 9 assists so far.  I really like the way Man Man plays the game, since he makes his teammates better.  While he could score closer to 30 a game if needed, getting other guys involved and picking up wins is more important.  This year’s Class C battle between Consortium and Beecher will be the best of any class, too bad this game will likely be played in Regional Finals and not at the Breslin.  These teams are the best two Class C has seen is quite some time. 

I personally think the Mr. Basketball battle comes down to the two point guards.  I think Walton and Morris are the most deserving.  As I mentioned before, I think Walton is the better basketball player, but nobody can argue with the success Morris has had in his career.  I am definitely rooting for both Flint Beecher and Chandler Park to win a state title, because it will be mostly on the backs of the two best players in the state.

B1G Update

Another week gone by in the nation’s toughest basketball conference, and it continues to be a slug fest.  There is a heavyweight matchup every week, and so far the giants are beating each other up.  Wisconsin was primed to make the biggest leap in the standings, but fell in Iowa City.  It is looking more likely that the conference champion will end up with 4+ losses.

1.       Michigan (up 1)

Michigan’s win at Minnesota was the program’s first road win over a top 10 team since 1996.  The Wolverine’s offense got back on track, and gave another example that trying to run with this team is a recipe for disaster.  If Michigan is going to win the conference and lock up a number one seed they will need to win the next three games (Purdue, at Illinois, Northwestern).  It is a two week, minor, calm before the storm where the Wolverines could push for a top ranking.

2.       Indiana (down 1)

The Hoosiers had their first lack-luster week of the season.  They fell a half step behind Michigan on Tuesday night by losing at home, against Wisconsin.  Dan Dakich has mentioned numerous times that this Indiana team will be impossible to hold under 70, but the Badgers confused Tom Crean’s players all night and kept them to 62. Now the questions surface, can Indiana win a game against a talented and physical team.  We will get to see soon as Michigan State heads to Bloomington next weekend.

3.       Minnesota (no change)

The Gophers remain on this top tier perch, even after losing at Indiana and home against Michigan.  It is clear Minnesota is one of the most talented teams in the conference.  Their only major flaw is their turnover problems, and it will be hard to improve now that the non-conference season is over. 

4.       Ohio State (no change)

The Buckeyes traveled to East Lansing and a wrestling match broke out.  It turned out to be a close game that Ohio State lost on the road.  With the Big Ten officiating bias toward the home team, this is good news for Thad Matta’s thugs.  I am still hesitant to put this team onto the top tier because of their major offensive struggles.  Will they be able to find anyone as a 2^nd scoring option?  It doesn’t look like they will, which means they will have to hold opponents under 60 and hope Thomas can keep scoring 25+ points.  This doesn’t seem like a winning formula, especially on the road.

5.       Michigan State (no change)

The Spartans came away with a big win on Saturday night, but like Ohio State, the game just showed more of their weaknesses.  This basketball team continues to struggle with turnovers.  They continue to improve on the defensive end, and have morphed into one of the best in the conference.  I wonder how long they will be able to win games in the low 60s. We will find out more about the Spartans this week with road trips to Madison and Bloomington. 

6.       Wisconsin (no change)

Wisconsin followed up their dominant win against Illinois with a shocking win over Indiana.  Bo Ryan reared his rat faced head again to show he is a top coach in the conference.  If the staffs were ranked, Tom Crean and Ryan would switch spots.  The Badgers seem to be clicking on the offensive end, which is bad news for the rest of the conference.  I don’t know if they will be able to eke out enough wins to continue their streak of finishing in the top 4.  It will help that they only have to play Indiana and Michigan once.  Wisconsin is looking to move up the rankings this week with games against Michigan State and Minnesota.

7.       Iowa (no change)

The Hawkeyes finally got a quality conference win and closed a game out at the end.  I still think this is a borderline NCAA tournament team.  I think the conference will end up getting 7 teams into the bracket, and with Illinois playing so poorly, Iowa might have slid into this role. The next step for this team will be to get a decent win on the road.  However, it will take a few strung together quality wins for the Hawkeyes to move up in the rankings.

8.       Purdue (up 1)

The Boilermakers are coming together as a team.  While they lack top end talent, they will always play tough, physical defense.  This should be able to keep them in most games, and don’t be surprised if Purdue pulls off at least one shocking win that will affect the top of the standings.  The Boilermakers just destroyed West Virginia, but now have to travel to Ann Arbor where Michigan looks to avenge their only home loss last season.

9.       Illinois (down 1)

What can I say about the Illini?  They live and die by the three, and right now they are fading fast in conference play.  Illinois returned home after being embarrassed by Wisconsin, and Northwestern welcomed them with a double digit blowout in favor of the purple cats. Wasn’t it just a few short weeks ago that this team was in the top 10?

10.   Northwestern (no change)

Northwestern continues to play well for the talent level on the team, but their ceiling is so low that the win/loss column isn’t affected.  I guess they can just be proud there is still two teams below them.

11.   Nebraska (no change)

The Cornhuskers lock up the number 11 spot this season with a win in Happy Valley.  Shavon Shields is growing into one of the better freshman in the conference.

12.   Penn State (no change)

Poor Penn State.  Their small hopes of getting a B1G victory shrunk even more after losing at home against Nebraska.