B1G Week 5 Preview

Luckily week 5 is a pretty light lineup for the B1G as I will be in Japan for work.  I will try to keep the blog updated while overseas, but it might be a light week.  I will try to at least make a Minnesota preview.

Miami (OH) @ Illinois 12:00pm
Miami is not a very good MAC team this year, and Illinois looks to be improved from last season.  I think Nathan Scheelhasse will have another big game through the air as new OC Bill Cubit is very familiar with the Red Hawks.  Look for Illinois to try different things on defense to try to force more big plays (sacks and turnovers).  

Northern Illinois @ Purdue 12:00pm
The Huskies already beat Iowa this season, and are looking for their 2nd B1G win.  I have said multiple times that Purdue is the worst team in the conference, so if NIU could beat Iowa I wiill be expecting them to do something similar to the Boilermakers.

Iowa @ Minnesota 3:30pm
This game is really intriguing and should give better clarity to the bowl teams in the conference. Even though the Hawkeyes are not performing up to their standards, fans still expect a bowl berth.  Minnesota, on the other hand, is trending in the opposite direction, and the Gophers have the talent to be in the postseason.  Both teams will need this win if they plan on getting to 6 wins.  The Hageman - Weisman matchup should be one of the better storylines around the conference this week.  I think the Minnesota rushing attack should be able to ground out another 250+ yard game.  It will be interesting to see if Iowa can force the Gophers into passing situations (3rd and longs).  If not Minnesota should win relatively easily.

Wisconsin @ Ohio State 8:00pm
This matchup has produced some of the most memorable B1G games in the past decade, and this year should be no different.  It will be the Buckeye's first real test of the season.  I am still unsure about how good the OSU defense is, and right now I guess they are on a similar level as Arizona State.  Wisconsin was able to shred that defense for 300+ yards on the ground.  The key matchup in this one will be the Buckeye front 7 in first and second downs. The Badger weakness is in the passing game, and if Stave is faced with 3rd and longs Ohio State will win this game comfortably.  At this point it seems reasonable to expect Stave to pass for about 150 yards, but the Badgers will likely need at least 400 to win this game.  I expect Melvin Gordon and James White to have another big game.  On the OSU offensive side of the ball it will be interesting to see if Braxton Miller is able to shake off the rust and if Meyer has his Heisman hopeful on a leash.  Wisconsin really struggled to contain the Sun Devil passing attack, and the Buckeyes have a lot more weapons.  Some combination of Miller and Guiton should be able to break at least one big passing play. The new Badger 3-4 defense should be able to dial up different blitzes to confuse the inexperienced OSU offensive line, but will they be able to contain either running quarterback?  Night games in the 'Shoe are always intimidating, and I think Stave will make too many mistakes in the passing game to give Wisconsin a chance late.  Ohio State should escape with a close high scoring win.

Week 5 Upset Alert

We made it through the worst week of college football, and it is now time for conference play.  The Upset Alert post should have more options from here on out. Last week I was right that no top 25 teams would lose, but I was wrong with the games to keep an eye on.  Lets jump ahead to week 5.

LSU @ Georgia
I know the Tigers offense is looking like one of the best in the SEC.  Michigan Man Cam Cameron is doing a great job so far in Baton Rouge, but Georgia has one of the best offenses in the country. I expect this game to be every bit as entertaining as the Texas A&M and Alabama game.  Both teams are breaking in a lot of new starters on defense, so points will not be hard to come by in this heavyweight bout. I think both Mettenberger and Murray will have big games, but Todd Gurley will be the x-factor in this game.  Georgia at home should be able to get a lead, and since the Dawgs can run the ball more effectively they should be able to keep the LSU offense off the field.

Oklahoma @ Notre Dame
My thoughts about the Irish have changed dramatically since the 2nd weekend of the season, but I don't think Oklahoma is a very good team.  Notre Dame will give Blake Bell a lot of different defensive fronts to think about, and they should be able to get in the backfield quite a bit Saturday afternoon.  The game plan should be more similar to the Michigan game, and Tommy Rees should be more comfortable in the short passing attack.  I think he bounces back with a big game. Also, remember that weird things happen in South Bend.

Arizona @ Washington
As much as I don't want to do this, but Rich Rod has another pretty good team in Tucson. They are led by one of the best running backs in the country Ka'Deem Carey.  Washington hasn't seen a rushing attack like this yet, and I doubt they will be able to stop it let alone slow it down.  Keith Price is prone to giving the ball to the other team at least twice each game, and the running spread attack should be able to control the clock more than the Huskies. This should be a good matchup to see if the Wildcats are contenders in the Pac12 South.

B1G Week 4 Recap

The B1G bounced back reasonably well after the week 3 debacle.  Most of the conference teams performed at or above expectations in the final tune up weekend to the B1G season.

Good surprise:
I am going to go with the entire Minnesota Gopher team.  They welcomed an SJSU team fresh off an 11 win season last year.  The Spartans also played Stanford reasonably tough in the season opener. I expected Minnesota to struggle to score over 21, and for SJSU to edge them out.  Minnesota instead rushed for 353 yards (sacks included) and the untested defense forced 3 turnovers and held the Spartans to 10 points.  The Gophers are looking like a sure fire bowl team this year, and are improving each year under Coach Kill.  Now they need to figure out their passing attack, because if Nelson or Leidner can be a threat through the air this team will be difficult to beat.  Michigan will have its hands full in week 6.

Purdue was coming off of a surprising game against Notre Dame and Wisconsin from a disappointing loss in the desert.  It seemed plausible that the Badgers would come out a little sluggish from the outcome against Arizona State. Instead, Wisconsin looked like a legitimate contender in the Leaders Division, while the Boilers cemented their fate as the worst conference team.  Wisconsin still has worrisome weaknesses that Ohio State will look to expose this weekend, but every team in the B1G looks flawed right now. The Badgers rushed for 388 yards at 8 ypc, and Purdue's strength is supposed to be their defense.  Wisconsin shredded the Boilers for 41 points while Notre Dame struggled to score 20. 

Iowa finally showed some signs of life against Western Michigan, and gave the Broncos their worst B1G loss of the season.  Yes, the Hawkeyes scored 28 points from special teams and defense, but they also rushed for 258 yards which was more than MSU could manage against WMU.  I still don't think Iowa is very good, but it was nice that they showed some ability last weekend.

Bad surprise:
I thought Indiana actually had a chance against Missouri last weekend, but the Hoosiers paper thin defense reared its ugly head again. The Tigers do have an above average offense, but surrendering 623 yards is just unacceptable. On top of that, Indiana threw 3 interceptions which didnt help matters. Before the season I penciled in the Hoosiers as a bowl team, but now they will need to find 4 wins in conference play which seems like a tall task for a team that resembles 2010 Michigan.

Michigan State Spartans fought hard against Notre Dame according to the box score, but they surely did not pass the look test.  The offensive game plan seemed incoherent and changed too easily, and the defensive secondary gave up 70 yards of penalties (Notre Dame only finished with 220 total yards), and if it was the NFL rules that number would likely be doubled. I know Coach Narduzzi likes playing tight man to man coverage all game, but he was too stubborn to change his game plan even after it became obvious Notre Dame was just trying to throw the ball downfield to get a lucky completion or a PI call.  Out of the Irish's 34 passes, at least 15 of them were 15 yards or more.  This is pretty remarkable considering that of the 51 passes attempted against Michigan less than 5 were thrown this far down field.

Week 3 conference rankings:
1. Ohio State (no change)
2.  Northwestern (no change)
3. Wisconsin (up 1)
4. Michigan (down 1)
5. Michigan State (no change)
6. Nebraska (up 1)
7. Penn State (down 1)
8. Minnesota (up 2)
9. Illinois (no change)
10. Indiana (down 2)
11. Iowa (no change)
12. Purdue (no change)

Week 4: Connecticut Recap

This recap is going to look eerily similar to the one posted a week ago in reference to the Akron game. Michigan followed up the 'Worst Win Ever' with another pretty terrible win, but at least it was a win and the Wolverines moved to 4-0 on the season.

Turnovers continue to be the achilles heel of this football team.  Devin Gardner struggles to protect the ball when scrambling, and seems to have lost all confidence in his passing ability. Michigan now has a -5 turnover differential on the season, and the most of the blame should be directed at the starting quarterback. Garner has accounted for 10 turnovers by himself. On Saturday night he had Gallon wide open for an easy first down, but didn't set his feet which resulted in a high throw that was tipped and then picked off. The second interception is more excusable, and probably should have ended as an incompletion if not for poor play from Chesson. Gardner stepped up in the pocket and released a ball 40 yards downfield.  The pass was intended for the redshirt freshman receiver, who had a step on the cornerback.  Instead of leading Chesson towards the endzone and throwing the ball to his outside shoulder, the pass was a few yards underthrown.  It looked like the cornerback came down with the ball with Chesson, but then outmuscled Jehu for the interception.  Gardner's final turnover was on a quarterback sneak. Yes, the offensive line got pushed back into him and Kerridge ran up his back, but Gardner was still carrying the ball too loose.  So far in 4 games the Michigan offense has given up 21 points, and that does not include 2 turnovers inside the 10 yard line.

On top of the turnover issues, the offensive line continues to get mauled by anyone lining up in front of them. Coach Hoke mentioned some potential changes to the inside 3 linemen before the UConn game, but ended up going with the usual suspects. I would guess that we will see at least one new face up front against Minnesota.  While it is unfortunate to have to switch lineman this far into the season, the Wolverines have to make a change. Michigan is giving up the TFL's in the conference, and are one of the worst teams in the nation.  The Huskies did not have a sack entering Saturday night, but came away with 3.  On top of that, the defense that got sliced by a bad FCS team recorded 10 TFL. Most of those coming from inside runs. The B1G might not be the best conference, but most teams left on the schedule will have a better defensive line than UConn.  It seems unlikely that Schofield will be changed to guard, but I think he makes a better guard than tackle.  Also, having a left side of Lewan and Schofield is pretty tempting.  It looks like the LG and C spots are up for grabs between Glasgow, Miller, and Bryant with Braden and Magnuson pushing for time at RT.  We didnt think the offensive line could be worse than last season, but so far they are testing that statement.

Another thing that I noticed was all of the mistakes from true freshman on special teams.  Ben Gedeon ran into the punter (luckily on a 4th and 7), Jourdan Lewis blocked in the back 20 yards behind the punt returner when Dileo put Michigan inside the 10, and Da'Mario Jones had a punt hit his foot on his very first play in a winged helmet.  These types of mistakes cost the Wolverines 11 points, and they cannot happen against better opponents.  Ever since Dymonte Thomas blocked the first punt of the year, true freshman seem to only be making big play mistakes on special teams.

The most encouraging aspect of Saturday night's game was how the defense performed. UConn by no means has a prolific offense, but anytime you can hold a divison one opponent at 200 yards for an entire game is pretty impressive. Michigan was able to get consistent pressure from the front four, and Frank Clark even recorded his first two sacks of the season.  Both came when he beat the terrible RT, but they were the first of his career that he had to beat a block for.  Jibreel Black was in the back field again, but Wormley and Henry both made appearances somewhat regularly. Coach Mattison even dialed up a few cornerback blitzes with Raymon Taylor, and each resulted in a sack or a rushed incomplete throw. The linebackers did a little better in coverage, but will need to continue to improve as Beyer and Bolden struggled in the seams at different points. However, the biggest play of the game came from this position group in coverage as Desmond Morgan was able to intercept a pass and return in inside the 20. The secondary still has its glaring issues, but with Avery back in the lineup it gives the coaching staff more options. Luckily Minnesota will not test the back end of the defense at all, which will basically give these guys 2 weeks to prepare for Hackenberg.

Top Performers
      1.   Bye Week

2.     Desmond Morgan

3.   Frank Clark
4.   Fitz Toussaint
5.   Blake Countess

Areas of Concern

1.   Devin’s tendency to give opposition points (this will stay on the top of the list)

2.  Interior line play

3.  Devin's lack of confidence in the pass game

4.  Big negative plays from the special teams

Michigan is one of 4 teams that remain undefeated in the B1G, but they have definitely taken the ugliest route there. The bye week cannot come at a better time as the Wolverines have many problems that need to be fixed before Minnesota if Team 134 will be heading to Indianapolis.

Week 4: Connecticut Preview

Well last week was brutal.  The Michigan Wolverines take the field tomorrow to try to erase the remaining disgusting taste that is in our collective mouths. I am not sure if one good game will be able to do that, but executing in every phase of the game for the first time this season could be great way to start. At this point I will take just comfortably scoring more points than an over matched opponent.

UConn Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
To put it nicely, the Huskies struggle to run the ball. Their main work horse, Lyle McCombs, is averaging around 3.5 yards per carry.  On top of that he is getting little to no help from the offensive line that averages just over 300 pounds. The one thing that will help UConn in this game is that their main offensive scheme is to run a passing spread. If this sounds similar to Akron, Notre Dame, or Central Michigan you would be correct.  Michigan has struggled against this style for the past 2 games, and might have against the Chips if their starting quarterback and running back werent injured in the first quarter. The Wolverines will likely elect to continue in their nickel package by removing the nose tackle to insert another cornerback, and so far this year the Jibreel Black at DT and gaggle of 3-techs have been blown off the ball time and again during running plays. If Michigan plays Quinton Washington or Ondre Pipkens more than 50% of the snaps, UConn likely will not scratch 3.5 ypc.  The problem is that so far Greg Mattison has been unwilling to change his nickel package, and at this point seems unlikely to make the switch now. Even with this, Michigan should still have the advantage here.  They have better athletes in the front 7 than UConn has seen so far this season, and they have to be able to stop the rushing attack.  Advantage Michigan.

UConn Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
Like I mentioned earlier, UConn prefers to run a passing spread offense out of the shotgun formation. This scheme prefers to use 3-5 receivers and utilize short passing routes in order to get the ball out of the quarterbacks hands quickly to keep him upright and to allow him to make easy decisions and throws. The problem is that the Huskies offensive line is so bad that they are surrendering 5 sacks per game, and they have only played a bad FCS team and low level ACC squad. Michigan hasn't been good at getting to the quarterback, but they have to be better than Towson and Maryland. Hopefully this game will get the Wolverine front four back on track and into the backfield consistently.  If not, Coach Mattison has to change the strategy as we move into B1G play.  Michigan seems to be on different wave lengths between the front and back 4. As they are trying to generate an organic pass rush, the opposing quarterbacks are using 3 step drops and very quick passes, and the Wolverine secondary has been playing an extremely soft zone to give make the throws even easier. If the coaches are set on not blitzing extra people, they need to play more press coverage.  If they are set on dropping back in max coverage, then the soft zone on the outside is more acceptable. Raymon Taylor had a brutal game last week, and got beat over the top multiple times. He needs to step up this week, or be replaced by Courtney Avery.  If UConn is going to have any success tomorrow night they will need to do it through the air, but it is hard not to believe that the Michigan defense comes out a little angry this week in an attempt to make a statement.  Advantage Push.

Michigan Rush Offense vs UConn Rush Defense
Depending on which analyst you have listened to this week the Michigan run game has been slowed because of bad line play or bad vision from Fitz. I happen to think it is a little bit of both. The Wolverine interior line continues to miss blocking assignments, which have given Fitz little room to run. On the other hand, Fitz doesn't seem to trust his lead blocker yet, and is determined to hit a homerun on each run.  This strategy has resulted in multiple negative rushing yards, when if the lead block was followed would have been 2-4 yard gains. Those 'short' but positive runs tend to add up a lot quicker than -2 yard runs. If Toussaint follows the pulling lineman or the fullback he should finally break 100 yards tomorrow night, but if he continues to prefer to run east and west then it could be another frustratingly long night. I happen to think the offensive line will take offense to Coach Hoke calling the position up for grabs, and respond with a dominant performance.  Hopefully Fitz responds as well and decides to get up field quicker than in the first 3 games. Advantage Michigan.

Michigan Pass Offense vs UConn Pass Defense
To continue the theme of this preview, the UConn pass defense is also really bad. The best Huskies defender is redshirt junior MIKE Yawin Smallwood.  He is a legitimate NFL prospect, and UConn's best pass rusher. Other than him the Huskies struggle to get to the quarterback, which should help Devin Gardner bounce back from a terrible game last week. The defensive line has struggled to generate any pass rush so far, and UConn still has not recorded a sack. Michigan should be able to spread the ball around between Gallon, Chesson, Dileo, Funchess, and Butt.  I would imagine the main game plan is to try to get the running game going, so Devin might have his passing attempts limited, but when he does drop back he should have plenty of time to pick apart UConn's defense. I think the tight ends have a big game, and I would like to see Chesson continue to get targetted because he should be open downfield all game.  Advantage Michigan.

UConn might be worse than Akron, but in case you forgot last weekend that does not mean Michigan can overlook a bad team, especially on the road. I hope last week was an eye opener for Team 134, and I expect them to have had a very focused, motivated, week of practice. I think the Wolverines bounce back and look more like the team we saw against Notre Dame than against Akron. Look for a big day from the pass rush and the running game, as Michigan gets a comfortable win against UConn 41-10.

B1G Week 4 Preview

Luckily week 3 is in the rear view mirror, because for the second straight season it was embarrassing. While I have done well in my weekly upset picks, the B1G selections have stumped me for most of the season. Let's hope I can get back on track in week 4.

San Jose State @ Minnesota 12:00
This game could be one of the more intriguing matchups this week.  The Spartans were an 11 win team a year ago, and pushed Stanford in the opener for a half.  Minnesota is looking to respond to Coach Kill's 4th seizure during a Gopher game, and they could be without starting quarterback Phillip Nelson.  If SJSU could score 14 points on one of the best defenses in the country, I think they will be able to top 20 and could push 30 against the Gophers.  Will Minnesota be able to score consistently enough? They will try to pound the ball on the ground as the backup quarterback gets comfortable.  Before starting this preview I was planning to go with Minnesota, but now I want to lean towards the Spartans to get the big road upset.  

Florida A&M @ Ohio State 12:00
And the Buckeyes are back to playing teams that would struggle to win high school state championships.  Urban could start at quarterback in this one, and OSU would still hang 40 points. The question here will be does Ohio State finish with more points than A&M yards.

Western Michigan @ Iowa 12:00
The Broncos are probably sick of playing the B1G as this will be their 3rd matchup in 4 weeks.  WMU hung with Northwestern for most of the opening half last week, but in the end Northwestern pulled away for an easy win.  Meanwhile, Iowa struggled to close the door on a bad Iowa State team.  As like most Hawkeye previews, this game is not going to be pretty.  Look for Mark Weisman to add another 25+ carries, and for him to eclipse the 150 yard mark.  Iowa should be able to win comfortably against a bad MAC team.

Maine @ Northwestern 3:30
I was close to going with this game as the marquee matchup of the week, I hope I went with the right choice. Seriously, Northwestern? You scheduled Maine? Do they even have a football team? The Wildcats should cruise in this snoozer.

South Dakota State @ Nebraska 3:30
Just another week in the life of the Blackskirt defense. The Husker will look hold SDSU to under 500 yards, but it might be a challenge for this defense. Just kidding, South Dakota State is miserable. Even though Taylor Martinez likely will not play, Nebraska should be able to roll with Ameer Abdullah and Imani Cross.  The real question here will be does Bo Pelini have more sideline/post game blow ups than SDSU points?  

Kent State @ Penn State 3:30
The Nittany Lions will look to bounce back against a decent Kent State team.  I would guess the Penn State defense wants to get back on the field quickly, and it will help that they don't have to defend Blake Bortles.  Hackenberg should have another big game completing passes to Alan Robinson, and the Nittany Lions should get away with a comfortable win.

Purdue @ Wisconsin 3:30
Hurray! It is the first conference game of the season.  Purdue performed much better against Notre Dame than I expected, and Wisconsin got robbed out in the desert against a good Arizona State team.  I still think the Boilermakers are the worst team in the conference, and I am holding out hope that the Badgers are going to be the team to challenge Ohio State in the Leaders Division.  Look for Melvin Gordon to have a huge day again, but I think Joel Stave continues to struggle under center.  I don't think Purdue is a good enough team to make Wisconsin pay for the poor quarterbacking, and the Badger run game should carry the team to a 1-0 B1G record.

Michigan State @ Notre Dame 3:30
This game has a lot of intrigue for me. After Michigan beat Notre Dame I really thought the Irish could still be a BCS team, but then they struggled against a bad Purdue team while Michigan should have lost to Akron.  So I am interested to see which team shows up this week. As for Michigan State, their offense looked incapable of getting out of its own way after the first two weeks, but then the Spartans bounced back with an impressive 55 point outburst against Youngstown State.  I do think the Notre Dame defense is very good, and I don't know if MSU will be able to exploit some of the weaknesses like Michigan or Purdue.  The Spartans do not have Devin Gardner, and they don't have a reliable pass catching running back to use for screen passes. I think Michigan State will go back to struggling mightily on offense. The good news for the Spartans is that Tommy Rees is lining up under center for the domers, and he is good for at least one bone head mistake every game. This will likely mean that the MSU defense gets back on the board in this game. The Notre Dame offense looked very good against Michigan 2 weeks ago, but then struggled against Purdue (which gave up 42 to Cincinnati). Pat Narduzzi is going to dial up a lot of blitz packages to try to pressure Rees into bad throws, and it will be interesting to see if the Irish OL can hold up.  I think the MSU defense is much better than Michigan's, and the ND offense only scored 23 in Ann Arbor.  This game will likely be closer than I expected 2 weeks ago, but Notre Dame, behind a more balanced attack, should be able to pull out a low scoring win.

Missouri @ Indiana 8:00
This is the 3rd and final intriguing game around the B1G this week.  Indiana lost a winable game against Navy, but then responded by pounding a good Bowling Green team last week.  The Hoosiers need to win this game if they are going to be bowl eligible, but the Tigers will provide a stiff test.  A win over an SEC team will be the best win for Coach Wilson during his time in Bloomington, and the season outlook could look a light brighter if they can pull out the victory.  Even though Missouri is an SEC team, they are a bad SEC team.  They likely will not win a single conference game this season.  However, they do boast a pretty potent offense behind James Franklin, which spells trouble for the Hoosiers. This game should be an entertaining touchdown-fest, and I am going to go with Indiana at home.  I think their defense made some strides last week that hopefully they can replicate again, and the Hoosier offense is going to shred a very weak Tiger defense.

Week 4 Upset Alert

The weekly upset alert is doing well for me so far this season, but I might run into some scheduling issues in week 4.  This is the weekend that most college football teams are gearing up for conference play, and will elect to play a cellar dweller in order to get a full contact practice to prepare.  I actually do not see any upsets happening this week, but I still want to note a few games to keep an eye on.

Louisiana Monroe @ Baylor
RGIII is no longer in Waco, but Coach Briles continues to turn out prolific offenses. Baylor should have the best offense in the Big 12, if not in all of FBS. They are led by Bryce Petty who is completing 80% of his passes so far, and Lache Seastrunk who is averaging nearly 10 yards per carry. ULM will not be able to stop the Bears, and their only hope will be to slow the machine down enough and trade scores. The Baylor defense is still a work in progress, although they have shown more promise this year in their first two games. ULM is a legitimate team, and if Baylor overlooks them this game could be pretty close.  Either way it will be a high scoring game.

Arizona State @ Stanford
The Cardinal is many expert's preseason pick to face Alabama in the national championship game. Arizona State is coming off of a huge win over Wisconsin, and look like one of the favorites in the Pac 12 South.  This could be a rematch of the conference championship game.  Stanford has started slowly in both of their opening games against less than intimidating opponents (San Jose State and Army).  This should be an entertaining matchup between Arizona State's high powered passing attack of Taylor Kelly, and Stanford's defense which should be in the top 10 nationally again. But the outcome of the game might be decided in the opposite matchup.  The Sun Devils struggled to contain Wisconsin's running attack, and Stanford will look to replicate the Badger's success.  This approach will also be effective in keeping the defense fresh while ASU's offense is off the field. I liked what I saw from Arizona State last weekend, so I think they can push Stanford.  In the end the Cardinal should be able to run the ball at will, which should allow them to control the outcome.

Auburn @ LSU
I was really impressed with the new look LSU offense in their season opener against TCU. Zack Mettenberger looks to be one of the better quarterbacks in the SEC, and will be the major reason if LSU is going to be headed to Atlanta for the SEC championship game. On the other side it is looking like Auburn is starting to gain confidence in their new head coach, Malzahn.  LSU is still trying to replace a lot of their defense from last year, and the spread guru could throw enough unique looks out there to give LSU some problems. I do think the Bayou Bengals are much more talented than Bama's little brother, and playing at home with a senior quarterback should be enough for LSU to win this game.