B1G Predictions (Legends)

1.       Michigan

Last year picking the Wolverines on top of the Legends Division was definitely an optimistic, homer, choice.  This year when I look at this stacked group Michigan is the most complete team listed, and like two years ago, the schedule is again in their favor.  While the Wolverines do not have the best offense or defense of this bunch, I predict both units to be in the top third of the conference.  Their best defender, Jake Ryan, is slated to come back in October before the schedule gets tough in November, and Devin Gardner just scratched the surface of his potential last season.  The race for the Legends Division crown is going to be a fun one to keep an eye on.  

2.       Michigan State

Ordering the next three teams is close to impossible.  Each of Michigan State, Northwestern, and Nebraska have above average aspects to pair with bottom dwelling groups.  I chose the Spartans to finish 2^nd in the division because they boast the conference’s best defense, and on paper it really isn’t close.  The B1G has quite a few teams with above average offenses, but Michigan State has the only truly elite defense.  While the Spartans struggled mightily on offense last year, I really don’t think it can get that much worse.  Also to help matters they will benefit from not having to play themselves, so scoring 21 points should not be too tall of a task against most of the league.  

3.       Northwestern

The Wildcats seem to be the 2013 dark horse.  They are starting with more attention than Purdue last year, but most people think they will finish as the 4^th best team in the Legends Division.  While Northwestern might not have the overall talent on offense as other teams (Ohio State, Nebraska, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc) they run a very difficult system to defend.  Kain Coulter is on the short list for preseason offensive player of the year, and he will be helped by Venric Mark and Kyle Prater.  The defense will again be a struggle for the Wildcats, but they are infusing more talent on this side of the ball through recruiting and I think it starts to shine this season.

4.       Nebraska

Most people are choosing the Cornhuskers to win the Legends Division.  I have a hard time putting them above the first three teams though, unless they make a big leap forward on the defensive side of the ball.  The once-named Black-shirt defense couldn’t stop anybody with a pulse last year, and they lost some of their most talented players. Nebraska could replace these players with immediate contributors, but since the Huskers have joined the B1G their recruiting has taken a major hit.  Taylor Martinez will also push for the offensive player of the year, and should lead one of the most prolific offenses again, but if they can allow Wisconsin to hang 70 on them I just cant put them higher on this list.  Nebraska will have a good early season matchup with UCLA, and if their defense can hold up well then the Huskers could become my favorite to win this division.

5.       Minnesota

The preview of Minnesota is a lot like last year.  The Gophers will be improved again, but they happen to play in the tougher division.  This team is going to be better than their record shows, and could even have a major hand in determining who wins the Legends.  However, I think Minnesota will struggle to be bowl eligible.  

6.       Iowa

The Hawkeyes struggled all of last year, and I just don’t see them being much better this year.  Coach Ferentz’s seat could get a little hotter after this season. Iowa was one of the worst offensive teams in the entire conference last season, and I just don’t see any reason to believe that will change in 2013.  

B1G Predictions (Leaders)

We have made it to the final week of the summer, which on one hand is extremely disappointing knowing the sun will be leaving us shortly, but it also means that the college football season is upon us.  Even though my B1G preseason predictions crashed and burned big time last year, I am going to dust myself off and try again. 

1.       Ohio State

Seemingly the Buckeyes are the obvious choice of the Leader’s Division.  The return a legitimate Heisman candidate, Braxton Miller, a ton of talent and highly touted recruits are replacing the players gone from last year’s undefeated team.  While I think their number 2 overall preseason ranking is quite overrated, this half of the B1G is by far the weaker side. Yes Ohio has many questions on the defensive side of the ball, but it really shouldn’t matter because there is really only one defense on the schedule that has a chance at keeping the offense under 40 points (Michigan).

2.       Wisconsin

The Badgers break in a new coach who brings a new offensive system to Madison, but the meathead left quite a bit of talent in the cupboard for this season.  Wisconsin still has all of the pieces to be a road grinding running team, and will boast 2 of the best backs in the entire conference.  The defense will once again be solid tacklers that lack the top end lateral speed to keep up with the truly elite teams (which the B1G mostly lacks).  Even though Wisconsin’s run at the Rose Bowl should end this season, they should be able to finish with a better overall record than last season.

3.       Indiana

I predicted the Hoosiers to finish last in the Leader’s Division last year which was a mistake.  Even though their quarterbacks were hit with the injury bug, they managed to have the most prolific passing offense in the entire conference.  They return two proven quarterbacks, and are all but guaranteed to hold onto being the best team through the air again.  The problem with Indiana (as with most B1G teams) is they are extremely limited on the other side of the football.  If the Hoosiers are going to make a bowl game this year they will need to score in the 40’s most games, and that is a tall order.

4.       Penn State

To be honest, I am not exactly sure what to expect from Penn State this season.  The seniors rallied together last year to be the B1G’s biggest surprise team, but most of their production, from both sides of the ball, have graduated.  While Bill O’Brien managed to recruit reasonably well for a team under such strict sanctions, the Nittany Lions will be relying on a lot of unproven players.  Of course it will help having the conference’s best receiver, Allen Robinson, to help break in the new quarterback.

5.       Purdue

The Boilermakers were by dark horse candidate last year, and I almost immediately regretted that choice.  The struggled all season long which resulted in another coaching change in West Lafayette. Purdue still has some talent in the secondary, but I doubt it will be enough to push for bowl eligibility.

6.       Illinois

It became clear at an early stage last season that the Illini were the worst team in the conference.  Coach Beckman did little with the talent that the Zooker left him.  This year there is even less talent in Champagne, so there is no reason to believe the results will be any better.  It might be hard for these guys to win a conference game.

Team 134 Depth Chart Preview

It is almost Labor Day which means I am back blogging for the upcoming football season.  There has been a lot of discussion about Michigan's depth chart so far during training camp, and even though the answers will be revealed in 8 short days I thought I could take my guesses. 

There are some easy choices, and some shots in the dark (especially with Darboh now out for the season with a foot injury).  I will bold the players that I think are locks.  Take a look and tell me what you think.

QB:
Devin Gardner
Shane Morris

RB:
Fitz Toussaint
Derrick Green
Justice Hayes (3rd down back)

FB:
Joe Kerridge
Sione Houma

WR1:
Jeremy Gallon
Joe Reynolds

WR2:
Jehu Chesson
Joe Reynolds
Jeremy Jackson

Slot:
Drew Dileo
Dennis Norfleet

TE1 (Y):
Devin Funchess
A.J. Williams
Jake Butt

TE2 (U):
Jordan Paskorz
Khalid Hill
Wyatt Shallman

LT:
Taylor Lewan
Michael Schofield

LG:
Chris Bryant
Graham Glasgow
Ben Braden

C:
Jack Miller
Graham Glasgow

RG:
Kyle Kalis
Graham Glasgow

RT:
Michael Schofield
Ben Braden

The biggest offensive battles that still need to be determined are WR2 after the Darboh injury, LG and C.  The coaching staff has mentioned that they would not be opposed to using a platoon for the 2nd receiver position.  The LG is a little disconcerning since after spring ball all signs pointed towards Ben Braden staking claim to the guard next to Lewan.  Now insiders are saying that Braden hasnt even been taking snaps at guard during the fall, and Chris Bryant has taken over the lead.  According to Coach Borgess, Bryant was on track to win one of the starting guard spots last year before an injury sidelined him for the year.  The final spot, center, is likely the most important battle still taking place in camp.  We have seen how important a quality center is with the dropoff from David Molk.  If you are an optimist, whoever wins the starting job should be as good, if not better, than last year's.

 DT:
Quinton Washington
Ondre Pipkens

3-Tech:
Jibreel Black
Willie Henry

SDE:
Chris Wormley
Keith Heitzman
Tom Strobel

WDE:
Frank Clark
Mario Ojemudia
Taco Charlton

SAM:
Jake Ryan (in October)
Cam Gordon
Brennan Beyer

MIKE:
Desmond Morgan
Joe Bolden

WILL:
James Ross
Desmond Morgan
Royce Jenkins-Stone

CB1:
Blake Countess
Delonte Hollowell
Jourdan Lewis

CB2:
Raymon Taylor
Courtney Avery
Ross Douglas

NB:
Dymonte Thomas
Blake Countess
Courtney Avery

S1:
Thomas Gordon
Jarrod Wilson
Delano Hill

S2:
Courtney Avery
Jarrod Wilson
Jeremy Clark

K:
Brendan Gibbons
Matt Wile

P:
Matt Wile

KR:
Dennis Norfleet
Jourdan Lewis

PR:
Dennis Norfleet
Drew Dileo

The biggest battles on the defensive side of the ball are at SDE and the 2nd safety position.  The strong side defensive end seems to be a battle between high-floor/low-ceiling Keith Heitzman and high-ceiling/low-floor Chris Wormley.  Since Greg Mattison likes running 8-10 defensive lineman in every game, both of these guys should see plenty of time.  It will be interesting to see if Tom Strobel can break into the 2-deep.  Look for him to get some snaps in the 2nd half of the season opener. The 2nd safety position is the top priority right now for the defensive coaches.  It seemed like Jarrod Wilson was the heir apparent after the Outback Bowl, but while the physical tools are all there, the mental understanding is still limited.  It seems like this side of his game hasn't developed as much as the coaches would like, so they decided to let Courtney Avery take some snaps at safety.  My theory right now is that Michigan will start the season a lot like they did in 2011.  I think the personnel will change depending on running or passing downs.  During running plays I think Wilson will be playing the majority of the snaps along with Thomas at nickelback.  Durring apparent passing plays, Michigan will likely opt to get more cornerback-type players on the field. This could be where Avery slides into the underneath safety, Blake Countess switches to the nickelback, and Delonte Hollowell takes over the outside corner back.  Personally, I think the 2nd safety position is Wilson's to lose, so as he gains more game experience I would hope he takes over the full time job. 

Michigan Basketball: 2014 Recruiting Needs

I am back after almost a 2 month break from blogging.  It has been hard for me to set aside time to break down every Tigers series like last year, so I have decided to just skip it altogether.  I am sure I will have a baseball update at some point in the near future, but I want to focus on the 2014 basketball recruiting scene for the Michigan Wolverines.  John Beilein and company are coming off the most successful season in nearly 2 decades, but the effects of the deep tournament run will likely not be felt until the 2015 recruiting class.  However, it is still going to be extremely important for the coaching staff to continue to bring in top notch talent to keep Michigan in the top tier of the B1G. At this point in basketball recruiting most of the top talent already have a developed relationship with a few coaching staffs that will make up their top 5 schools.  But we can continue to see the ability of the Wolverine coaching staff to evaluate talent before most, and be the first staff recruiting very specific kids to fit the Michigan system. 

After the upcoming season the Maize and Blue can plan on Jordan Morgan coming off the roster, and likely Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary entering the NBA draft. That will leave 8 scholarship players on the roster or 5 available slots for 2014 recruits. The Wolverines have already secured 2 commitments in this class: Ricky Doyle and Austin Hatch.  Ricky Doyle is a 6’9” skilled big man that will likely translate to a center for John Beilein.  He is a unique recruit to evaluate, though, because he is one of a few that do not play AAU basketball.  From what I understand, Ricky will enter college with a more defined set of offensive skills than Jordan Morgan.  He has a good face up game, and an improving array of back to the basket moves.  However, he will not be the next Mitch McGary.  At this point, I would guess that his ceiling is somewhere around Honorable Mention All-B1G, depending on the continued success of the conference.  Most of you already know the story of Austin Hatch.  At this point it looks like he will not be able to play basketball on the B1G stage, if at all, but John Beilein has stated that there will be a scholarship to the university awaiting Austin.  It is unclear if this scholarship will be taken out of the allotted 13 for basketball, or if he will be allowed to take a medical hardship immediately as a freshman.  For the time being I will keep Austin as part of the 13 available slots for Team 98.  This leaves 3 open scholarships for the coaching staff to play with.

Needs:

1.       Shooting Guard.  With Michigan losing Tim Hardaway a year early, they will be forced to play off guard by committee next season.  Yes, Nik Stauskas and Caris LeVert can play the two, but are likely more of wing players.  Incoming freshman, Zak Irvin, could also fill that role, but I think he is more of a college 3 as well.  The Wolverines are pursuing this position the hardest right now, and have two elite players interested.  Devin Booker is the prototypical combo guard, he is 6’4”-6’5” and can score with anyone.  I personally think he will be a little more college ready than even Gary Harris was last year, and you can see how effective he was for the Spartans. Booker is the perfect example of this coaching staff’s evaluation abilities.  Devin came to the Michigan camp as an unheard of sophomore, and was one of the best players on the floor, regardless of class.  Since then his stock continues to rise, and now he is a consensus 5 star player. The other projected shooting guard is 6’5” Trevon Blueitt.  His recruitment was a little under the radar heading into the summer AAU circuit, but now is blowing up.  Trevon is another scoring machine, and is actually one of the scoring leaders in his AAU division.  It will be very important for Coach Beilein to secure a commitment from a shooting guard, and preferably one of these two players.

2.       Stretch Power Forward.  Do you remember the offensive mismatches Michigan exploited when Evan Smotrycz was on the floor and knocking down shots?  Now imagine an NBA-level player in that position.  The Wolverine coaching staff has been recruiting these type of players for their entire time in Ann Arbor, but have yet to land an elite, true stretch 4.  Yes, Glenn Robinson III is elite, but he is more of a wing player that moved down a spot so Michigan could start the best 5 players. Also, since Ricky Doyle will be a little undersized as a B1G center, it would be really nice to put a long, athletic player next to him in the post.  Having an offensive weapon at this position will take the pressure off of the guards and Doyle.  At this point, the Wolverines are hard after 6’9” Kevon Looney.  While he isn’t as explosive as GRIII, he is a lot longer and the definition of a stretch 4.  Looney is another consensus 5 star player that Michigan has been recruiting since his freshman year.  At this point, securing a commitment from Kevon seems like a long shot, but you have to like Michigan’s selling points (National Championship game, developing NBA talent, stretch 4’s thriving in a Beilein-coached offense).

3.       Wing. Yes, I did just write that the Wolverines have an abundance of college wing players, but outside of Kentucky how many teams have too many athletic 6’7”-ish players?  Also, at this point I think the coaching staff is not planning on having Irvin for 4 years, and Stauskas and LeVert will be upperclassmen.  Michigan’s main target is consensus 4 star, 6’6” Kameron Chatman.  He just visited Ann Arbor for the camp, and received his offer last weekend.  Chatman is a smooth lefty that is solid in most areas.  While he is not an elite scorer like the two shooting guard prospects, he has an above average mid-range and out game.  One of the things I really like about Chatman is his length.  It is something that you cannot teach, and would make varying zone defenses really intriguing.  The last offer on Michigan’s board at the moment is combo forward 6’7” Vincent Edwards.  He is a true power forward, but in a wings body.  If you followed high school basketball last year, he reminds me of Vincent Hunter.  At this point Edwards is a poor man’s version of Brandon Dawson, it is a very similar skill set but without the elite explosion.  Hunter is one of those players that coaches would love to have on their team, but he cannot be the focal point of a recruiting class.  He is a tough, hard-nosed guy that would be an immediate impact defender and rebounder.  Think Michigan could have used something like that this year?

If I am going to assume that Austin Hatch still uses one of the basketball scholarships, then I think the coaching staff will take two more players in the 2014 class and save the final one for 2015.  If that is not the case, then I can see Michigan taking a third player, but likely one that is not listed above.  Ideally the Wolverines would conclude with Devin Booker and Kevon Looney, but the staff would love either shooting guard and Chatman.  Even though the full effect from the National Championship game appearance won’t likely be felt until the 2015 class, the Michigan coaching staff is on pace to secure another top tier recruiting class.

A look ahead to Team 97

I wrote a small wrap up piece on the 2012-2013 dream basketball season last week.  It served more as a way for me to share my emotions after a gut wrenching championship game outcome.  If you want a full recap of the most enjoyable sports seasons in my lifetime, take a minute (or 17) to watch the video that was shown at the end of season banquet. Make sure to watch out for the cutting of onions, dust in your eye, or punch to the nose.

 

 

Now as we say goodbye to the 5 seniors, Trey Burke, and Tim Hardaway, we can also celebrate the return of Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary.  Since I am in denial that the college basketball season is really finished, I think it is fitting to start looking ahead to Team 97. 

There is really no way to understate talent and leadership that Michigan will be trying to replace next season.  Trey Burke is a once-in-a-generation type player, Tim Hardaway would have been a senior captain and All-B1G first team lock, and the 5 seniors provided some of the most important leadership for Team 96.  While most people just want to focus on the loss of the two starters, I think replacing the 5 seniors will be just as big of a task.  Do you realize that these 5 seniors made up the majority of the scout team?  While Michigan was one of the youngest teams on the floor, they prepared with and against one of the most experienced.  Just a few years ago 3 of these 5 seniors played valuable minutes for John Beilein, and all 5 have played against and prepared for each B1G team multiple times before 2012-2013.  This might be Coach Beilein’s toughest job next year, and few people will even notice. 

After reading that, you might be a little more discouraged or maybe realizing more why seasons like Team 96’s do not come around very often.  However, there are still reasons to begin the countdown until Team 97 takes over Crisler.  Michigan will be more talented next year.  The Wolverines, in fact, will be one of the deepest and most talented teams in the country.  This does not mean I think another Final Four trip is guaranteed, though, just ask Kentucky.  Champions need talent, but they also need that talent to sacrifice for the betterment of the team.  At this point, Michigan will field 11 scholarship players to begin the 2013-2014 season.  Can we all agree that Max Biefeldt would be ranked number 11? How many teams in the conference have someone that talented as the last player off the bench? How many teams even have 11 guys that have played valuable minutes?  I cannot think of any, and to be honest, it’s probably still an extremely short list if you expand the search field to all of Division 1. 

In terms of top flight talent, Team 97 should consist of at least 4 NBA players; 3 of which will likely be lottery picks.  The Wolverines should boast two legitimate B1G POY candidates (Robinson and McGary); along with two potential All-B1G freshmen (Irvin and Walton).  This doesn’t even include should-be improved sophomores (Stauskas and LeVert), All-B1G defensive first teamer (Morgan) and sleeper freshmen (Donnal).  John Beilein has re-built this program with his ever-changing system, surrounding himself with dedicated and hard-working assistants, high level recruiting, and top-tier player development; all while conducting himself with class and integrity.  Not only will the 2013-2014 basketball team be one of the best in the country again, the Michigan basketball program is one of the healthiest in the nation. I will leave you with a quote from the man on top after Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary announced they would be returning for their sophomore years (from UMHoops): “I watched these eight kids work out yesterday. I just gave my two cents and I let my assistants coach for most of those two hours.  I was smiling when I went home… working out those eight guys, and knowing the quality of the three coming in, I was smiling on the way home.”

Go Blue

 

 



 

Michigan Wolverines are still my champion

I have taken a mini-break from my daily blog entries to try and just sit back and enjoy the Michigan Wolverines making a Final Four, and national championship game run.  Even though I was not able to go to Atlanta, I wanted to just let this surreal experience wash over me.  The 2012-2013 Michigan basketball team seemed like a team of destiny. Each time a new obstacle was thrown its way, somebody was going to step up to lead the way around it.  But, for some reason, last night just was not meant to be. 

As the sadness and disappointment hung on my shoulders this morning, I wanted to blame the questionable calls from the officials, or the terrible defensive rebounding in the second half, or bad clock management at the end of the game, but I couldn’t.  The Wolverines ran out of gas, but still left what little remained in the tank on the floor.  Yes, Michigan surrendered 1.26 ppp, which was the worst defensive performance of the entire season, but in return the nation’s best offense also carved up Louisville’s top defense to the tune of 1.17ppp.  Yes, the officiating was horrendous, but there were terrible calls made against both teams.  Yes Michigan wasted 21 of the final 50 seconds, but the Cardinals had a 2 possession lead and were knocking down free throws.  Louisville was the better team last night, but it doesn’t take away the fact that it was one of the best basketball games of the entire season.  How often does that happen on Championship Monday? However, one thing that we can agree on is that Michigan deserved to be on the biggest stage. 

So now as time continues to roll on, and last night moves further in the past, I am left with feeling proud and thankful.  I am proud of where the coaching staff has elevated the program I love.  I am thankful for all the moments I will never forget from the past 5 months.  I am proud of the way this team fought until the end.  I am thankful that I was able to see the best player to come through the Michigan program since the 1960’s.  Finally, I am proud to call the University of Michigan my alma mater.

I’ll admit that I got caught up in the frustrations of last night’s game; with my voice taking the brunt of the abuse, but I was able to watch my team on the biggest stage, one last time.  While the networks and “experts” will be quick to forget the team that came in second, Team 96 will forever be cemented in my memory.  Not only for just what they accomplished, but what they stood for.  I guess for that, these Michigan Wolverines actually were a team of destiny.

The shot heard round the world

In case you are living under a rock, this happened on Friday night:

 

 

This also happened:

 

 

Lucky for me, these were also documented:

 

 

 

It was the greatest shot that I can remember my team making, in the biggest moment of my memory.  Michigan looked dead in the water against the top seeded Jayhawks, and not because Kansas was so dominant, but because the Wolverine defense fell back into old habits and surrendered more easy lay-ups and points in the paint than I ever remember seeing.  Then the National Player of the Year took over, and led Michigan back with a 14-4 run over the final few minutes of regulation.  Which set the stage for one of the biggest shots in Michigan basketball history.  It is one of those that will be replayed for every NCAA tournament promo in the future, and does it feel good to be on the winning side. 

 

Michigan continued their momentum into the overtime stanza and prevailed with a 2 point win.  The Wolverines then followed that up with a 40 minute clinic against the computer's runaway best team in the country. The maize and blue had done it, they advanced to a Final Four. 

 

To be honest, it still hasn't sunk it completely and we are 4 days after securing our spot.  Can it be that we are lucky enough to see our team in the final weekend of the season? Can it be that we are lucky enough to see the program's best point guard at least 1 more time? Even though when this team has played well it is obvious they are Final Four contenders, it still seemed like a pipe dream.  This team that limped to the regular season finish line, that forgot to show up for the Big Ten Tournament, that slipped to a 4 seed, this team will be able to hang another banner in Crisler. 

 

There are still 3 more games to be played this weekend, and hopefully Michigan gets to participate in 2, but I am just lucky enough to get to see these guys put on the Michigan uniform at least one more time.  This has been one of the most enjoyable journeys that a sports team has taken me on, and I think we can all be thankful that there is still more to come.  Go Blue!