Penn State Recap

Michigan opened their revenge tour in the Big Ten Tournament with last place Penn State.  While the game started all too familiarly with a 14-3 run for the Nittany Lions, and the Wolverines being outrebounded 11-2.  The final 36 minutes saw Michigan outscore their opponent by 28 points and had a 13 rebound advantage.  It wasn’t the best performance that the Wolverines have played, but it was the first double digit win since February 24^th.

The defense still struggled, especially in the first half, with stopping dribble penetration which resulted in numerous layups.  Penn State followed their path to success from the first two meetings with DJ Newbill getting into the lane and making plays.  The Nittany Lions scored more than 1 point per possession for the 3^rd time against Michigan this season, and all 3 of their offensive outbursts ranked in their top 4 for the entire season.  It seems pretty clear that we have seen what this Wolverine squad is defensively, and it is a definite weakness.  However, I am still optimistic that this team can regain some of their defensive rebounding prowess from the non-conference season.  If the Wolverines can clean up their glass at least 70% of the time, Michigan will be heading to Atlanta this season.  It was impressive to see the switch be flipped yesterday after Mitch McGary was inserted into the lineup.  Jordan Morgan seems to be lacking confidence on both ends of the floor, which has really affected his defensive rebounding.  But the mountain of a freshman, Vanilla Thunder, sparked the Michigan comeback with a double-double in the first half alone.  It will be interesting to see how much intensity the Wolverines play with today against Wisconsin.  The Badgers are a very physical challenge that rebounds the ball extremely well, but if Michigan can control the defensive glass they should be able to pull away in the end.

There is little to complain about when an offense scores 83 points in just 62 possessions.  There is a direct correlation to big man contributions to offensive efficiency.  When the Michigan center rotation scores more than 20 points with 13 rebounds combined, the offense has scored more than 1.13 points per possession.  It is pretty difficult to lose when scoring that many points.  Yesterday, McGary, Horford, and Morgan combined for 25 points and 18 rebounds.  Burke was back to his usual antics by scoring 21 points.  He only finished with 3 assists, but had many missed opportunities with Morgan missing 4 layups off of Burke passes.  Stauskas continued his impressive 3 game stretch by scoring 15 points on just 7 shots, he attacked the rim extremely well again and drew 3 fouls for 5 free throws.  Hardaway continued his cold shooting from behind the arc (1-7), but he did find success when creating his shot going to the hoop.  Wisconsin has a tendency to lull teams into taking contested jump shots, so it will be important for the Wolverines to continue to be aggressive on offense and getting the ball into the paint as much as possible. 

Wisconsin is next up on the payback weekend of 2013.  If Michigan can survive and advance today they most likely have secured an opening weekend trip to the Palace of Auburn Hills as a 2 or high 3 seed.  But also almost as importantly, will get another chance to take down Indiana tomorrow.  I know getting rest is a higher priority for some teams during the conference tournament weekend, but I think for this young Wolverine team picking up as many wins against top B1G teams will be invaluable for the NCAA tournament.  This squad needs to realize it can beat the best and not just be left with the what-ifs from last weekend.

Big Ten Tournament Preview

The Big Ten tournament kicks off today in Chicago, and if the regular season has taught us anything this tournament could be the best one ever.  The conference is not only loaded with top end talent (4 teams in the top 10), but depth (8 and 9 seeds have spent time in the top 10).  The next 4 days could, potentially, have a major impact on NCAA tournament seeding and opening round location. 

Michigan will have a very difficult road just to play on Saturday.  The Wolverines open with an improving Penn State team that has already played the maize and blue extremely tough in two earlier meetings.  If Michigan can exact a little revenge today, they will then get to square off against the pesky Badgers.  The Wolverines are clearly more talented than both of these squads, but it will be interesting to see how this young team can respond in playing a game each day, especially against two teams with different styles.  Michigan should be able to all but guarantee a 2 seed if they can just make it to the weekend.  I am very interested to see how the Wolverines come out of the gate in the opening game against Penn State.  The last time they had a truly heartbreaking loss, the next game they were laughed off the court in East Lansing.  Maybe I am too optimistic, but I expect the team to play with a lot of passion and focus and advance to play another day in the tournament. 

The hottest team right now is Ohio State, and with a strong showing this weekend the Buckeyes could play themselves into a 2 seed.  The scarlet and gray await the winner of the Purdue vs Nebraska game tomorrow.  Even though the Boilermakers are playing some inspired basketball right now, their best game is no match to Ohio State’s current level of play. If Aaron Craft can continue to be a dangerous second scoring option, the Buckeyes might be the favorites to win this tournament right now. 

The obvious favorite is the regular season champs, Indiana.  The Hoosiers are expected to grab the number 1 seed in the Midwest region regardless of the tournament outcome.  It will be interesting to see how the team responds to the high praise.  After they clinched at least a share of the regular season title they lost on their home floor and managed to steal a game in Ann Arbor.  I have a hard time seeing Indiana playing with the focus needed to win 3 games in 3 days, especially when they could be playing 3 teams that have already beat them once this season.  I think Tom Crean will look to rest some of his players in preparation for the tournament in March that really matters.

The team with the most to prove is Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers seemed to clinch an NCAA tournament bid with a win over Indiana just a few short weeks ago, but then they responded with one of their most discouraging weeks of the season.  Minnesota has been able to play up to top competition, and if they can focus this weekend I wouldn’t be surprised to see them playing on Sunday afternoon.  However, if this mentally weak team has already checked out, I think Illinois will dominate them in the tournament opener. Then the question will be, has Minnesota done enough early in the season to stumble into the tournament?

All-B1G Awards

The All-B1G teams were announced earlier this week by the coaches and media, which means, it is time to release my awards for the nation’s best conference. 

Player of the Year

Trey Burke

This is one of the easier awards to give out because I personally think Burke should run away with the national player of the year this year.  I know people want to throw Oladipo, Thomas, or even Zeller in the same breath as Michigan’s star, but one deciding factor for me is: where would Michigan be right now without Burke?  They are a talented team, but us fans might be back on bubble watch again.  Burke averaged over 20 points in conference play, never scored less than 15, leads the conference in assists and assist to turnover ratio.  He is easily the best point guard in the country, and one of Michigan’s all-time greats.  Now just imagine if he stayed for 4 years.

Defensive Player of the Year

Victor Oladipo

While Aaron Craft is the best on ball defender in the country, Oladipo is not far behind.  But where I think he excels is in team defense.  His help-side defense is near perfect, and his rotations are quick and in the correct spot all the time.  Even if Oladipo’s offense was lacking, it is clearly not, his defense would propel Michigan to the clear-cut best team in the country.  Craft is a very close second for this award.  He will likely win it again next season as Oladipo is likely to leave for the NBA.

All-B1G Team

1.       Trey Burke

2.       DeShaun Thomas

3.       Victor Oladipo

4.       Cody Zeller

5.       Aaron Craft

Coach of the Year

Matt Painter

I know most people chose Bo Ryan for this award, but I just don’t want to give Wisconsin any credit.  I don’t like the way they play basketball, and I definitely don’t like Ryan’s antics on the sideline.  Yes, the Badgers overcame the loss of their point guard to finish in the top 4 of the conference for another season, but they might have played the conference’s easiest schedule to do so and needed 2 near half-court buzzer beaters for those wins.  The breaks fell Wisconsin’s way after the non-conference.  I will choose Matt Painter from Purdue just based on where the Boilermakers were heading into the conference (coming off a loss to Eastern Michigan where they couldn’t score 45 points), and where they finished (dominating Minnesota on their home floor by scoring 89 points).  Purdue might be one of the most improved teams in the country, and Painter should be recognized for his best coaching job in his career.

B1G Update

The Hoosiers continued to struggle on weeknights (4 of 5 losses have happened through the week), but Michigan could not finish the deal on Sunday to remove Indiana from the top spot. The Spartans dominated the Badgers and cruised through Northwestern.  Ohio State had the most impressive week with wins over Indiana and Illinois.   It is pretty impressive that the final polls have 4 B1G teams in the top 10.

1.       Indiana (no change)

The Hoosiers were a missed layup from going 0-2 in the final week of the regular season, which would drop them from the top of the power rankings.  Instead, Indiana found a way to steal the game in Ann Arbor, win the conference outright, and hold onto their number one ranking.   

2.       Michigan State (no change)

The Spartans absolutely dismantled Wisconsin and then bounced back on senior night with a lackluster win over the conference’s worst team. Michigan State heads into the conference tournament as the 3 seed, but will avoid Indiana’s half of the bracket which includes Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Minnesota. The Spartans look primed for a 2 seed in the big dance.

3.       Ohio State (up 1)

The Buckeyes continue to play their best basketball of the season, and lucky for them it is at the perfect time.  Ohio State had a great outing in Bloomington and then returned home to throttle Illinois.  It seems crazy, but Thad Matta’s crew could play themselves into a 2 seed with a strong BTT showing. 

4.       Michigan (down 1)

This has more to do with the success of Ohio State, and less with the fault of the Wolverines.  Michigan gutted out a win against Purdue and then lost in heartbreaking fashion to Indiana.  The Wolverines have slid all the way down to the 5 seed, which means they do not get the opening day bye.  It will be difficult for this young team to conserve enough energy to compete in 4 games in 4 days. 

5.       Wisconsin (no change)

The Badgers showed some of their true colors this week with two terrible road performances against Michigan State and Penn State.  Wisconsin should be nursing a 0-2 record, but another near half court buzzer beater saved them.  The Badgers will likely face Michigan in the 2^nd round of the conference tournament. 

6.       Iowa (up 3)

Iowa won both games last week to jump up the power rankings.  Thanks to Illinois and Minnesota losing twice, the Hawkeyes grabbed the 6 seed for the conference tournament.  Iowa is a confusing team; they could blow out Northwestern on Thursday but then turn around and lose by 20+ to Michigan State on Friday.

7.       Purdue (up 1)

Purdue had another confidence building week with pushing Michigan to the brink on Wednesday and then dominating Minnesota on the road.  The Boilermakers are playing their best basketball right now and could be a tough out for Ohio State, especially if Terone Johnson goes for 32.

8.       Illinois (down 1)

The Illini are no longer trending upwards.  Groce’s squad limped to the finish line with losses to Iowa and Ohio State. Neither is a bad loss, but Illinois would have preferred to grab at least one game heading into the conference tournament.  The game against Minnesota to open the BTT could go a long ways for the selection committee.

9.       Minnesota (down 3)

The Gophers might be the most frustrating team in the entire nation. Just a week after having their best 2 game stretch since December, they respond with losses against Nebraska and Purdue.  Minnesota might actually need to win at least one conference game to make the NCAA tournament.   

10.   Nebraska (no change)

Nebraska picked up another conference win, but it’s not enough to vault them into the single digits.

11.   Penn State (up 1)

Yes, the Nittany Lions only have 2 conference wins, but they are clearly better than Northwestern at this point in the season.  Penn State should have won both games this week.  They will get to face Michigan for the rubber match in the conference tournament opener.

12.   Northwestern (down 1)

Bill Carmody is glad the season is almost over.  

Indiana Recap

According to many, Crisler had never been louder than it was on Sunday afternoon as the Wolverines prepared to take on Indiana with a share of the Big Ten title on the line.  Michigan again looked like a different team in front of the home crowd.  They managed to absorb every punch the Hoosiers threw, and responded with devastating blows of their own.  But, in the end the Wolverines delivered the knock out to themselves, and were not able to close the game and hang another banner. 

Michigan played extremely well on the offensive end of the floor; despite struggling to finish around the hoop.  In the first half the Wolverines used good ball movement to attack the hoop with Burke, Hardaway, Stauskas, and even Robinson.  The second half mostly involved Burke breaking down the on ball defense to find open teammates for jump shots.  The Wolverines used the three point line to attack Indiana.  Tom Crean switched Oladipo onto Burke for a large portion of the game, and it seemed that Trey struggled to get his usual space at times. However, the Big Ten player of the year still managed to hit enough tough shots to score 20 points. It was really encouraging to see Stauskas and Robinson take some confident shots against a top tier opponent.  Michigan felt their presence, which is a major improvement from the first meeting. 

The Wolverines struggled on the defensive end of the floor, which was expected against the best offense in the conference.  I was actually impressed with the perimeter defense for most of the game.  Hulls was able to get free a few times, but other than that Indiana was mostly forced to take contested jump shots.  The most discouraging area was defensive rebounding.  The Hoosiers managed to rebound 57% of their own misses.  This was a season worst for Michigan.  Tim Hardaway Jr did an outstanding job staying in front of Victor Oladipo all game, but then forgot to box him out.  Oladipo collected 7 offensive rebounds by himself.  The Wolverines used 5 players at the center position, and they combined for 3 defensive rebounds.  Looking at these two stats, it is amazing Michigan was even in the game.  The maize and blue entered B1G play as the 2^nd best defensive rebounding team in the country, but over the last two months they have now fallen to 80^th (8^th in conference).  If the Wolverines can regain their success on the glass for the NCAA tournament, they will be primed to make a deep run. 

Of course, even with the terrible defensive rebounding, Michigan should have won the game.  As Glenn Robinson III escaped for a breakaway dunk from a sideline inbounds play the outcome seemed guaranteed.  Then Christian Watford somehow convinced the officials his push was an attempt at the ball, and a 2 shot foul was called instead of an intentional.  GRIII then went 1-2 from the line.  Indiana then rushed the ball up the court, and the Michigan defense offered as much resistance as wet toilet paper in the last minute.  After the first made basket, LeVert chose to inbound the ball to Tim Hardaway instead of Trey Burke.  Since the Hoosiers were in desperation mode, and just trying to extend the game, they fouled immediately.  The junior then stepped to the line to clang the front end of a one and one.  Indiana scored quickly again, and Michigan got the ball to their best player.  Burke then followed suit and missed his first attempt.  On the other end, Zeller had one of the easiest looks you can get from a half court set with time running down.  That’s all it took for Michigan to be behind.  The frustration continues to grow because Zeller scored with 13 seconds still left.  The ball was in Burke’s hand and the final play was executed perfectly.  Jordan Morgan screened Oladipo at the top of the key, and just like that Burke was in the lane against Zeller.  Indiana responded exactly the way you would expect on a final possession; all 5 guys sucked in to the middle towards the ball handler.  Burke went into the conference’s best center, and attempted a difficult layup.  Throughout this season I have seen number 3 make some incredible shots, so I wouldn’t have been surprised to see that one fall.  However, I thought the actual goal was to just get the ball on the rim.  It would have been a bonus if the layup fell.  Instead the ball screener, Jordan Morgan, rolled hard to the front of the rim.  As all 5 Hoosiers were focused on Burke, the Michigan center was in perfect position for an uncontested put back.  It was executed perfectly, until Morgan couldn’t complete the second chance opportunity. And just like that the number 7 team in the nation dropped to a 5 seed in their own conference tournament.   

Michigan High School Basketball Regional Preview

The districts are now over, and the high school tournament now moves on to its second week. The main contenders in each class are still alive, but the competition picks up even more in the regional week. 

Class A
Toughest Regional:
Detroit Pershing vs Redford Thurston & Birmingham Groves vs U of D Jesuit @ Southfield
The likely rematch of Pershing vs Jesuit in the regional finals will be the second top tier matchup for the Doughboys in the postseason. 

Top team most likely to lose:
I am going with Saginaw High because the regional semi-final matchup will be the third against Midland.  The Chemics have pushed Saginaw to the limit twice this season and could finally get over the hump in their third try. If the Trojans can advance to the final they would likely meet a ranked Grand Blanc team.  Even though they are without their best player, Grand Blanc could make Saginaw uncomfortable.

Class B
Toughest Regional:
Detroit Douglass vs Ferndale & Detroit Country Day vs Harper Woods Chandler Park Academy @ Country Day
While Country Day is the favorite to bring home another state championship, this regional might be the toughest two games the Yellow Jackets will play until the finals.  CPA is not nearly as talented as DCD, but they do have Derrick Walton who can single-handedly make up a lot of ground.  He is the only player in Class B that could even the talent gap between Country Day and the field. The Yellow Jackets will likely face Detroit Douglass in the finals where they are led by Junior standout Davis. 

Top team most likely to lose:
Stevensville-Lakeshore could be on upset alert with a semi-final matchup against Sturgis.  Chance Stewart could be a tough matchup for Bushwyler.  If the Lancers can advance to the final, they would likely meet South Haven who is playing their best basketball of the season. 

Class C
Toughest Regional:
Melvindale AB&T vs Detroit Consortium & Madison Heights Bishop Foley vs Detroit Loyola @ Bishop Foley
Consortium is the most talented team in Class C, but they have a very tough grouping in regionals.  Melvindale AB&T is one of the top 5 teams in the class and is one of the few teams with good enough talent to compete against the top team.  If Consortium finds a way to the finals they would likely face Detroit Loyola, which is another top ranked team.  I expect Vince Hunter to be on a mission after being left off the Mr. Basketball ballot, and Josh Jackson to use this postseason to spring board his hype train.

Top team most likely to lose:
Grandville Calvin Christian will be challenged in their regional.  The semi-final game will be against Laingsburg who advanced in one of the toughest districts, and the potential final matchup would be against Muskegon Heights.  The Tigers have been a main-stay in the Class B semi-finals the past few seasons, and are continuing their success in Class C.

Class D
Toughest Regional:
Allen Park Inter-City Baptist vs Pinckney Livingston & Bellevue vs Southfield Christian @ Novi
Southfield Christian's opening game against Bellevue could be a trap game if they are looking forward to the rubber match against Inter-City Baptist.  Bellevue is very capable to pull off the upset.  The regional final matchup could be a battle for one of the state final spots.

Top team most likely to lose:
Beal City should be able to beat Mio, but the potential final matchup against Saginaw Buena Vista could be the end of the road as Beal City has to make the trip to Saginaw.  Buena Vista looks like a dark horse in Class D.

Michigan High School Basketball Districts Update

The opening week of the high school boys’ basketball playoffs is almost completed and there have been some note-worthy games already.  All the district champions will be determined later today, and the regional previews will come out on Monday.

Class A

The major contenders for the Class A crown are still alive (Pershing, Romulus, Rochester Adams, Saginaw, and Arthur Hill).

District Final to watch:

Saginaw vs Saginaw Arthur Hill @ Owosso

The winner of this rubber match will likely be the favorites to make it all the way to the final game.

Upsets:

Clarkston and East Kentwood have already fallen. Both were expected to compete for, if not win, the district crown. 

Class B

One of the contenders, Dowagiac, fell in the opening game to Lakeshore, but the remaining favorites are still playing (Country Day, Lakeshore, Chandler Park, Sexton, and Wyoming Godwin Heights)

District Final to watch:

Lansing Sexton vs Lansing Catholic @ Williamston

The winner here will likely be able to make a run to the semi-finals.

Upsets:

Otsego and Dowagiac were the Wolverine Conference’s hope of making a Breslin Center run, but both lost in their opening game.  Dowagiac was beat by another contender, but their absence is big for fan interest since Mr. Basketball hopeful, Dontel Highsmith, will be at home.

Class C

The major contenders are still alive (Detroit Consortium, Flint Beecher, Melvindale AB&T, Muskegon Heights, Calvin Christian, Flint Beecher, and Traverse City St. Francis).

District Final to watch:

Flint Beecher vs Flint Hamady @ Flint Beecher

The winner here should be the lucky team to face Consortium in the quarterfinals.

Upsets:

Pewamo-Westphalia lost in the district semi-final to Laingsburg, and they were a contender to make the finals.

Class D

The major contenders are all still alive (Wyoming Tri-Unity, Southfield Christian, Climax-Scotts, Allen Park Inter-City Baptist, Lansing Christian, and Cedarville)

District Final to watch:

Kalamazoo Phoenix vs Battle Creek St. Philip @ BCSP

The winner could challenge Tri-Unity in the regionals.

Upsets:

Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart lost to Beal City, who now is primed to make a deep run.