2013 Oscars

Yes, this is quite the drastic change in blog post for me from sports 24/7 to Hollywood's biggest night.  However, I connect emotionally through different films, and if I spent less time watching sports it would likely translate into an even larger movie addiction.  I am not going to spend any time analyzing the different black tuxedos or the dresses that cost as much as my yearly salary, but I just wanted to recap the choices from last night's awards show. 

Overall I thought this was one of the deepest movie seasons in recent memory.  There were multiple films that could have won big in past years.  While I have not seen all of the nominated movies, I have seen a few and was incredibly impressed with all that I was able to view.  I still plan to complete the adventure to view each Best Picture nomination.  I will leave out Amour, because while it is probably very good, I don't feel like reading subtitles or watching 2 hours of a silent picture. 

The choice that I was the most surprised about was Ang Lee winning Best Director for Life of Pi.  This is one of the movies that I have not yet had a chance to watch, so I will refrain from bashing the selection at this time.  Instead I was hoping for David O. Russell to take home the prize for Silver Linings Playbook.  The movie is incredibly emotional, vulnerable, and raw, and I thought the director did a great job of capturing the cast in the moment.  However, he could have been down voted because of the talented cast in the film.  Silver Linings Playbook was the only movie to have a nominee in each of the four major acting categories (Actor/Actress, Supporting Actor/Actress).  I thought that some of the success would fall back on the director?  Of course this category should have been won by Ben Affleck for Argo, but he wasn't even a nominee this year.  Does Leo and Christopher Nolan have some company?

The acting categories were absolutely loaded this year.  I felt that each nominee had an argument to win.  It was going to be tough to beat Christoph Waltz in the Supporting Actor group since director Quentin Tarantino wrote the part with Waltz in mind.  I don't think people would have been too upset if any of the other candidates (Allen Arkin, Robert De Niro, Tommy Lee Jones, and Philip Seymour Hoffman) would have taken home the statue.  The Supporting Actress seemed to be a foregone conclusion with Anne Hathaway taking home the award for her role as Fantine in Les Mis, but just like the previous category it was filled with past Oscar winners.  Isn't weird to think that just a few years ago Hathaway was the rabbling, ditzy host and now she pulled off two completely different, but powerful, roles in one movie season with fierce Catwoman and broken Fantine.  I think that is pretty incredible.  Best Actress had a wide age range this year (9-86), and then 3 still up and coming actresses.  I thought this race came down to Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) and Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook).  I think I would have leaned towards giving the award to Chastain over Lawrence, but both were superb in their roles.  The reason why I would have given the nod to Jessica Chastain was because she alone made Zero Dark Thirty a must-see, gripping, thrill ride.  Like I mentioned earlier, Silver Linings Playbook was full of powerful performances.  This award was like picking a 1A vs 1B, both actresses definitely deserved any award they received. Finally, the Best Actor might have been the deepest race in Oscar history.  I could have realistically seen 4 of the 5 nominees taken the award home, and the one on the outside would have been one of the best current actors (Denzel Washington). Nobody would have done better in their roles than the 4 remaining men.  While Anne Hathaway was great in Les Mis, she only had 20 minutes of movie time, but Hugh Jackman's strong performance gave the musical an outside chance at Best Picture.  Bradley Cooper came out of nowhere to have his best performance of his acting career in Silver Linings Playbook.  Then the remaining two, Daniel Day Lewis and Joaquin Phoenix, are two of the most selective and devoted actors in Hollywood right now.  The difference is that Daniel Day Lewis is one of the best ever at becoming his characters.  He tranformed Abraham Lincoln into a living president with his role and would not be denied his 3rd Best Actor Academy Award.  Since I am also a huge fan of both Jackman and Cooper, I can just hope that they can make it back to the short list of nominees.  If they do it will be a treat for me.

The last award of the night always goes to Best Picture, and this year there were 9 nominees. I assumed the early favorites were Les Miserables and Lincoln, but then Argo started winning at every award show.  In past years, 6 of these films could have taken home this award.  I think Zero Dark Thirty was easily won of the best movies of the year, but the controversial topic likely kept the Academy for choosing it.  Silver Linings Playbook might have lacked substance compared to the other nominees, but clearly made up for it with the best overall acted movie of the 9.  Argo was one of the most entertaining movies I have seen in theaters, and in the end it seemed like the snub of Affleck from the Best Director gave Argo some momentum in Best Picture.  I don't know how you choose between Argo, Lincoln, Les Mis, Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings Playbook, and Django Unchained.  If you have the time I suggest you at least check out these 6 movies, and I would bet you wouldn't be disappointed.

Michigan Basketball Expectations

After the past 5 games, I assume most Michigan fans feel like Cody Zeller above (punched below the belt by Derrick Nix).  Heading into the showdown with Indiana on February 2nd most people thought the Wolverines were the best team in the nation, but in just a few weeks most people now think Michigan will struggle to get to the Sweet 16.  Why the sudden loss of confidence?

The primary answer is easy, the Wolverines could only manage 1 win in their toughest 4 game stretch of the season, and that one victory was at home.  Then, in their latest outing, the worst team in the B1G hung around all game on Michigan's home floor.  Two of the losses in this stretch were very emotionally charged.  It looked like the Wolverines finally eked out a win in the Kohl Center when Wisconsin hit a 40 foot running jump shot as the game expired, and the maize and blue eventually fell in overtime.  Then Michigan traveled to East Lansing where they were embarassed by our biggest basketball rival.  The regular season conference title now is likely out of reach, but even the small hope to be co-champions again can only happen if Michigan wins their last 5 games which includes games against Michigan State and Indiana. 

I personally think this team is somewhere between the high expectations on February 2nd and the pessimistic early NCAA tourney exit.  I do not believe that this Michigan team is a legitimate national championship contender at this point, but I do think an Elite Eight or Final Four run is not unlikely.  Still, if Michigan gets healthy and plays up to their capability they are one of the most talented teams in the country, but recently we have also seen how the grind of the nation's toughest conference can wear a team down. 

I am very interested to see how Michigan responds this Sunday against surging Illinois.  The young Wolverines will have had a much needed week off, Jordan Morgan should be close to 100% healthy, and the coaching staff should have been able to focus on some defensive fundamentals that were lacking the past 2 games.  The Wolverines could come out a little rusty like they did after their last week off, but I expect the overall game to be much improved.  My expectations will continue to slide if the effort looks more like the Penn State game instead of any other conference home game thus far. 

There are still three milestones left in the season: March 10th (end of the regular season), March 17th (end of B1G tourney), April 8th (end of NCAA tournament). With Indiana's win at Michigan State on Tuesday, I think the regular season title is now out of reach, but it will be important for the Wolverines to get a favorable seed to at least get to the semi-final.  Personally, I would like to see Michigan keep their first day bye and stay out of the 4 vs 5 game.  Depending on how the regular season finishes up, the conference champion should be slotted as the top number 1 seed, which should leave the other 2 top flight teams a chance to steal the final top seed with a B1G tournament championship.  Finally, a lot of the success in the NCAA tournament will depend on the seeding and matchups.  Michigan should play their first two games close to home, which at the very least, should propel them to the second weekend.  Also, like I mentioned earlier, the Wolverines talent level is on par with any top 5 team, so making a run of 6 straight wins at the end of March is still not out of the realm of possibilities. 

After these disappointing 2 weeks, what are your new expectations for this basketball team?

Another case for the number 1 seeds....

The NCAA will try to put the top teams in the closest regional possible, which could leave the last one seed at a significant disadvantage.

The four regionals this season are:

East: Washington DC

Midwest: Indianapolis

South: Arlington

West: Los Angeles

The eleven teams that can play themselves into a one seed are (in order):

Indiana 23-3
Miami 21-3
Florida 21-3
Michigan State 22-4
Gonzaga 25-2
Michigan 22-4

Duke 22-3
Syracuse 21-4

Kansas 21-4

Louisville 21-5
Georgetown 19-4

Indiana

Losses: Butler, Wisconsin, @ Illinois

Quality Wins: Georgetown, Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan, @ Ohio State

Indiana is back on top after the last bracketology post.  Their loss at Illinois is looking better as the Illini have not lost since then.  Also, it helps that the Hoosiers have destroyed all of their competition since that loss.  They have two 20+ point wins against the bottom of the B1G, and a double digit dominant performance in Columbus.  The Hoosiers still have their two toughest games of the season coming up (@ Michigan State and @ Michigan).  

Miami

Losses: @ Florida Gulf Coast University, Arizona, Indiana State

Quality Wins: Michigan State, Duke, @ NC State

After barely including the Hurricanes in my first post, they have sky-rocketed to a near lock for a number one seed.  They have yet to lose in conference, and since the ACC is down this year it seems unlikely that they will lose again.   Miami does still have to travel to Duke still, but it is likely the 'Canes would need more than 1 loss to bump them from a one seed.

Florida

Losses: @ Arizona, Kansas State, @ Arkansas

Quality Wins: Wisconsin, Missouri, Ole Miss

Not much has changed with the Gators since the last post.  Teams around them keep losing, and Florida continues to beat up terrible teams.  Like Miami, I think the Gators are pretty close to locking up a top spot.  It will be interesting to see which regional both Florida teams will be assigned to.

Michigan State

Losses: Connecticut, @ Miami, @ Minnesota, @ Indiana

Quality Wins: Kansas, Ohio State, @ Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan

The Spartans took advantage of their opportunities with a dominating win over Michigan last week.  I personally think Indiana and Michigan State are playing some of the best basketball in the entire nation right now.  Since the B1G teams will continue to beat each other up, it seems unlikely for the conference to get 2 top seeds, but at this time I think both deserve it.  Like mentioned last time, the Spartans have a lot of tough games coming up, and if they get through them unscathed this will be the team on the top of the charts.

Gonzaga

Losses: Illinois, @ Butler

Quality Wins: Kansas State, @ Oklahoma State

Gonzaga continues to hang back in their mid-major conference and watch all of the big boys fight.  I doubt the Zags will lose another game this season, and since there are two B1G teams ahead of them right now it seems very likely that Gonzaga could grab the final number one seed, which would probably be the West regional. 

Michigan

Losses: @ Ohio State, @ Indiana, @ Wisconsin, @ Michigan State

Quality Wins: Pittsburgh, Kansas State, NC State, @ Minnesota, @ Illinois, Ohio State

Since the first post, the Wolverines have sputtered and lost 2 of 3 games.  While they are not technically out of the running for a number one seed, they have a lot of ground to make up.  None of Michigan's 4 losses are bad, and each of those teams should make the 2nd weekend of the NCAA tournament.  However, these 4 teams exposed some of the Wolverine's weaknesses, so it will be interesting to see how the young team bounces back.
 

Duke

Losses: @ NC State and @ Miami, @ Maryland

Quality Wins: Kentucky, Minnesota, VCU, Louisville, Ohio State, NC State

Duke continues to struggle without Ryan Kelly, and it is looking more and more likely that they will not have him in time for the ACC tournament.  Even if Duke finds a way to win out, I don't think they should be placed on the 1 line because of the significance of the injury.

Syracuse

Losses: Temple, @ Villanova, @ Pittsburgh, @ Connecticut

Quality Wins: San Diego State, Louisville, Cincinnati, Notre Dame

The Big East has an outside chance of getting one top seed, and right now the Orange are at the top of that list.  Syracuse cannot afford more than 2 more losses to be considered for a one seed though.  If it comes down to a discussion of the top Big East team vs Gonzaga, you would have to imagine the Big East holds the advantage.

 

Kansas

Losses: Michigan State, Oklahoma State, @ TCU, @ Oklahoma

Quality Wins: @ Ohio State, @ Kansas State, Kansas State

Kansas dropped three in a row, but they have bounced back with blowout wins over Kansas State and Texas.  The Jayhawks still have to travel to Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Baylor.  If Kansas can win out, it will be difficult to keep them from a top seed.  With how bad they played in that 3 game stretch, I think it is likely Kansas will drop one of those road games and possibly another in the conference tournament.

Louisville

Losses: Duke, @ Syracuse, @ Villanova, @ Georgetown, @ Notre Dame

Quality Wins: Missouri, @ Memphis, Kentucky, Pittsburgh

Louisville is a confusing team.  They have a ton of talent, and when it is clicking this team is one of the best in basketball.  Too often this season that has not been the case.  Russ Smith can play for the other team just as much as benefit the Cardinals.  I think Rick Pitino's squad will end up on the 3 or 4 line come selection Sunday, but they do have a chance to play up for a 1 or 2 seed.  Louisville has games coming up against Syracuse, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame.

Georgetown
Losses: Indiana, @ Marquette, Pittsburgh, @ USF
Quality Wins: @ Notre Dame, Marquette, @ Cincinnati
The Hoyas are definitely a very long shot right now for a top seed, but they are the hottest team in the Big East.  If they can continue on their winning streak with games at Syracuse and Connecticut coming up they will be sitting in the top 10 with the Big East tournament still to play.  I think it is more likely Georgetown ends up on the 4 line however. 

I dropped Arizona from the potential one seeds and replaced them with long shot Georgetown.  The Wildcats keep losing in one of the worst Pac-12's in memory, and they just are not a mentally tough team right now.  The Big Ten is guaranteed at least one number one seed, with the potential for a 2nd depending on when the losses come.  Florida and Miami seemed to have wrapped up a top spot, but now are competing with each other to see which regional they head to.  If the B1G is limited to just one team, then the next in line would be Gonzaga and Duke if both teams can win the rest of their games.

My four number one seeds are:

Midwest: Indiana

East: Florida

South: Miami

West: Michigan State

B1G Update

If you weren’t sure how difficult this conference is, then check out this week’s KenPom rakings.  There are 8 B1G teams in the top 29, and all 8 have a very real shot at winning 20 games before the conference tournament.  After watching a lot of college basketball over the weekend I think Michigan cruises to a regular season conference title in any other in America.  Duke lost at Maryland Saturday evening, and Coach K mentioned their fatigue after an ACC “brutal” four game stretch.  It consisted of: NC State at home, Boston College on the road, North Carolina at home, and Maryland on the road.  In case you were wondering, none of those teams are even ranked right now and Duke should have gone 1-3 in that stretch.   Duke lost to a bubble team that turned the ball over 26 times, and should have lost 2 others.  As an upper classmen laden team, the Blue Devils struggled in that stretch.  Now, throw in that Michigan plays 6 freshmen, competes in the most physically demanding conference, and just played 4 straight ranked teams (3 on the road).  Hopefully the Wolverines will just be able to recover in time for the NCAA tournament.

1.       Indiana (no change)

Indiana cruised to another dominating week with blowout wins over Nebraska and Purdue.  The Hoosiers seem to have gotten their confidence back from their loss at Illinois.  This week is the showdown in East Lansing.  The regular season title will be all but wrapped up if Indiana wins tomorrow night. 

2.       Michigan State (no change)

The Spartans dominated Michigan on their home floor last week, and then won a lackluster game against Nebraska.  Michigan State is playing some of the best basketball in the country right now.  This week begins their gauntlet of games with matchups against Indiana and at Ohio State.  The Spartans will need to at least win Tuesday night to keep pace in the conference race. 

3.       Michigan (no change)

Michigan got blitzed by Michigan State and recorded a win over inept Penn State. The Wolverines will have to use their time off to improve on the defensive end if they want to compete for a league championship.  Right now the only thing Michigan has going for them is that Trey Burke still is the point guard.

4.       Wisconsin (up 1)

I said if Wisconsin went 2-0 for another week I would have to move them up a spot in the rankings.  They went 1-1, with an overtime loss against Minnesota and a 21 point win against Ohio State.  With their dominating game yesterday it is hard to keep the Buckeyes above them.  The Badgers have the easiest road remaining in the regular season, so it is looking like Bo Ryan will keep the streak alive of finishing in the top 4.  It is crazy to think this team was on the bubble heading into conference season. 

5.       Ohio State (down 1)

The Buckeyes continue to struggle on the offensive end of the floor.  That being coupled with playing in the Kohl Center exploited Ohio State.  If this team is making shots, like they did in Ann Arbor two weeks ago, they are clearly a top 10 team.  When they don’t, they are capable of losing by 20+ (see Illinois and Wisconsin).  This week they have two big matchups with Minnesota and Michigan State.  While they are likely out of the regular season championship race they can still cause some havoc with games against the Spartans and Hoosiers remaining.

6.       Illinois (no change)

Illinois is one of the hottest teams in the conference right now, and after their buzzer beating win over Indiana they have yet to lose.  The Illini are solidly off the bubble for the time being.  Illinois has games against Penn State and Michigan this week, so continuing that winning streak might be difficult but if it happens they could move up into the top 25 polls again.

7.       Iowa (up 1)

Iowa finally found the easy part of their schedule.  After losing many close games that they should have won (Indiana, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin), the Hawkeyes were rewarded with a close win against Penn State and a blowout win over Minnesota.  Iowa has 4 very winnable games remaining and also have to travel to Bloomington.  It is very likely that this team end up with 9 or 10 conference wins and puts themselves back in the bubble picture.  I would have to guess that a 10 win team from the Big Ten is a lock to make the tournament.

8.       Minnesota (down 1)

The Gophers are back to struggling again. They eked out an ugly win against Wisconsin and then got pummeled by Iowa over the weekend.  Minnesota doesn’t have time to rest though, as they head to Columbus to face an angry Buckeye team.  This team continues to fall towards the bubble, but if they make the tournament as a 6-9 seed I don’t think there is a top 3 seed that would want to see these guys in the opening weekend.

9.       Purdue (no change)

Purdue was embarrassed again by rival Indiana, and also blown out by Illinois.  The Boilers continue to lack offensive playmakers, and lately have really struggled defending the low post. 

10.   Northwestern (no change)

Northwestern might be the unluckiest team in the country.  Currently, with redshirts and injuries, the Wildcats are without 6 of their top 8 roster players.  Good luck competing with that lineup.  

11.   Nebraska (no change)

The Huskers battled Michigan State pretty tough at home over the weekend, and have improved slightly as the season has gone on.  They will likely jump into the 10^th spot by the end of the season.

12.   Penn State (no change)

Penn State continues to play hard, as they almost beat Iowa and fought for 40 minutes in Ann Arbor.  It will be interesting to see how much they can improve with more playmakers, because the coach seems to get the most out of his guys.  

Penn State Recap

Michigan made their way back to the friendly confines of the Crisler Center yesterday for the dedication weekend.  Many of the past greats converged on Ann Arbor to take in the new facilities and the new look basketball team.  Unfortunately, one of the only welcome sites was the throwback uniforms.  The Wolverines hosted B1G-worst Penn State, and needed most of the 40 minutes to secure the victory.  It was obvious from the beginning that Michigan was still tired and struggled matching the energy level of the outmatched Nittany Lions.  On a positive note, a close win still counts the same as a 30 point drubbing.

The most discouraging aspect of the basketball game was the defensive rotation from Michigan.  Playing good defense usually consists of playing smart, understanding your role in the team’s strategy, and having a desire to defend.  Currently, I am not seeing any of those three executed by the Wolverines.  The freshmen continue to be isolated by the opponent, and they have yet to show any ability to force teams to change that strategy.  Trey Burke has even been a repeat offender in the last week.  While he has upped his on ball aggressiveness throughout the season, he is also getting beat by the ball handler more often.  This allows the point guard to get into the lane at will, where the rate of success dramatically improves.  Remember one of the keys for Michigan on offense? They are nearly indefensible if Trey gets into the lane where he has the option to shoot a mid-range jumper, take the ball all the way to the hoop, pass down to a rolling big man, hit a cutting GRIII, or kick out to Hardaway and Stauskas.  The past two games, Appling, Valentine, Marshall, and Newbill have been able to get into the lane mostly at will.  For a team that already struggles at rotations, this is usually the death blow.  In the Michigan State game it was mostly Appling just putting the ball on the hoop where the, now, out of position Michigan post player couldn’t box out Payne or Nix; resulting in 14 offensive rebounds. In the Penn State game it was dishing to a wide open center, Borovnjak, who was made to look like an All-B1G player by finishing with 17 points on 7-9 shooting.  While the added pressure on top has resulted in a few more forced turnovers on the year, Burke needs to choose his spots better to help the rest of the team stay out of lose-lose situations.  Michigan’s defense has never been confused with Wisconsin’s this season, but they were doing a very good job of defending the 2 point shot and then rebounding a high rate of those misses.  Before the Indiana game, the Wolverines were 3^rd in the conference at 2 point defense, but now they have fallen to dead last.  That is a pretty rapid fall from a considered strength.  The one consistency in all 5 of those games is that Morgan has not been 100%, but I personally don’t think that is the only reason for the slip.  Hopefully this week off not only brings the starting center back completely, but also gives the team time for rest and time to focus on defensive fundamentals.  If Michigan can get back to holding opponents around 40% 2 point shooting and rebounding those misses at a 70% rate or better, the Wolverines are the most dangerous team in the country.  That seems like a big if right now.  For reference, Michigan State shot 23-32 from inside the arc (72%) and one of the worst offenses in the conference (PSU) shot 49%.

Offensively, Michigan got back to their efficient ways of 1.19 ppp.  Before the game I was actually expecting this number to be closer to 1.25 or higher.  The Wolverine offense was really helped by shooting 35 free throws, more than they had combined in the 4 prior games.  The Penn State guards got into early foul trouble, which allowed Trey to do whatever he wanted with the ball in his hands.  He drove to lane effortlessly; hit open 3 point attempts, and found Stauskas and Robinson for easy looks.  Burke finished with 29 points.  The 2 starting freshmen also got back on track a little bit with Nik going for 18 even though he struggled with his deep shot and Glenn finished with 21 on back cuts and running in transition.  In case you are counting, that is 68 points from 3 guys.  Michigan scored 79 as a team.  Stauskas was effective in attacking the hoop and drawing fouls, and Glenn showed again some of his NBA potential by finishing 6-6 with 5 dunks and one put back layup.  Penn State could not take away the Michigan transition game that has been stagnant for much of the past two weeks, and when Trey Burke is leading breaks good things happen.  While the alley-oops and high flying dunks are spectacular, I still want to see Robinson use that athleticism against someone bigger and stronger (Watford, Payne, Thomas, etc).  I was impressed with the energy level from Robinson because the only way he gets alley-oop attempts is to beat his man down the floor, but I was most impressed with his effort in the rebounding game.  It has been noted everywhere how Indiana, Ohio State, and Michigan State were able to shut down Glenn from scoring, but I think those teams being able to take away his rebounding gave them a bigger advantage.  Even when GRIII is not scoring the basketball, his athletic ability should be cleaning up defensive rebounds and attacking the offensive glass. 

Thankfully, for both fans and players, Michigan has a week off before taking on a rising Illinois team.  Getting healthy and back to basics will be the key to this week.  I have been looking forward to seeing how the Wolverines respond this Sunday since the Indiana game.  It might be time to lower expectations further if Morgan is 100% and the defensive intensity is still lacking against Illinois.

Michigan State Recap... the sky is falling...

Let’s mark February 12^th as the day Michigan lost their remaining bandwagon fans.  John Beilein should be fired; Glenn Robinson III should leave for the NBA draft because I am sick of watching him disappear; this team will not win a single post season game.  These are just some of the statements that I have heard from people in the last 18 hours.  If you are in this camp today please feel free to leave a comment or continue to wait for 2012 Kentucky to walk through the door. However, the loss against Wisconsin was fare more infuriating for me.  Today I just feel embarrassed, and my expectations for this team have fallen off a bit.  But a lot of things can change between now and Selection Sunday.  Remember my post just last week explaining that Michigan was the clear favorite for the top number one seed? 

I would like to put last night’s loss into perspective.  The young Wolverines just completed their toughest 4 game stretch, all in 11 days.  These 11 days consisted of trips to the 3 toughest places to play in the conference, and maybe the country, and then a home game against a top 10 team.  Michigan plays a short bench, and yet the rotation still consists of 6 freshmen.  On top of playing the other 4 teams in the top 5 of the B1G, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan State are the most physically imposing teams in the nation.  Oh, and did I mention that Michigan went to battle without their best post defender?  While I am disappointed, like the rest of Wolverine Nation, it is actually pretty amazing that this team found a way to win any of these games. 

Everyone knows all of these prior facts, but they still don’t help with the vomit-inducing thoughts from last night.  Michigan was outplayed in every area of the game, and if it wasn’t for 3 desperation shots from Trey Burke the deficit could have been a lot worse.  Nik Stauskas was slow to rotate and unable to fight through screens, which allowed Gary Harris to take 9 unattested 3 point attempts.  Horford and McGary were not able to stop Derrick Nix from getting whatever position he wanted.  Then when Michigan State actually missed a shot, the Wolverines couldn’t keep anybody off of the glass.  Numerous times Dawsen, Valentine, and Harris crashed towards the hoop with no resistance.  There were also 4 offensive rebounds that were first touched at the 3 point line.  I believe the tired legs hit Michigan’s defensive and rebounding ability the hardest.  On the offensive end, Tim Hardaway had his worst game of the season, and possibly his career, by shooting 1-11.  There were 3 missed lay ups and 3 wide open deep attempts in those 10 misses.  Glenn Robinson continued to hide in the far corner, and McGary became an offensive liability.  Last night’s game was too big for Michigan.  They didn’t respond well to Michigan State’s first round punch, but, then again, they weren’t able to.  Each big comeback this season has been sparked by efficient offense, which has trickled down to defensive intensity.  Last night Michigan was never able to get anything going consistently.  Whether it was missed open looks, hesitation to driving because of the physical play (and no foul calls), or unforced turnovers, the Wolverines couldn’t hang with Michigan State’s hot shooting. 

It seems that Michigan can still get a one seed if they were to win out in the regular season and at least make the Big Ten Tournament Championship game.  Even with an ugly road loss, I don’t know how a 5 loss Big Ten team could be overlooked.  However, it is more likely that the Wolverines will fall to a 2 seed.  I know the schedule lightens up moving forward, but the most important thing for Michigan is to get healthy again because isn’t the ultimate goal to be playing your best basketball in March and not on February 12^th?  This is still a dangerous team with more weapons than John Beilein has ever coached, but they are flawed like every other college basketball team.  All I know is that I am going to try to enjoy the remaining games where Trey Burke puts on a jersey with Michigan across the front, because when is the last time that we can say our basketball team will fall to a 2 seed after a near 30 point blowout loss?

Good vs Evil, who will win tonight?

Yes, that is right folks, tonight is Michigan vs Michigan State.  Maize and blue vs whatever mix of colors Sparty chooses tonight.  It will be the first time in the history of this rivalry that it will match up 2 top ten teams.  And, of course, it is also the match up of good vs evil.  I will let you decide which side is which.



John B after a bad call...



Tommy after a good call...

Tonight will go a long way in deciding which of these teams are going to compete with Indiana for the regular season conference title.  While it is not a must-win game for the Wolverines, another top 10 road win would be a great bounce back to their lackluster performance in Madison over the weekend.  The Spartans are looking to keep serve on their home court and prove to the country that they are still the team of note in the mitten state. 

Just like the Indiana game, this contest has many exciting match up possibilities.  Both teams will try to force their game on the other.  In Michgan's case, they need to be looking to exploit the athletic mismatch of Payne guarding GR3.  Robinson is the superior athlete, but has been silenced so far this season in most raucous road atmospheres.  If the Wolverines are able to get out in transition and find a streaking GR3 for easy buckets, it could force Tom Izzo to abort the 2 big man rotation to match Michigan's smaller, athletic lineup.  On the other end, since Michigan will likely be without Jordan Morgan again, the Spartans will try to attack the post against the inexperienced Wolverines.  Derrick Nix will put a lot of pressure on Mitch McGary to play defense with his feet and not his body or hands, and Adreian Payne will be a problem to keep off of the offensive glass.  Without Michigan's best post defender, John Beilein will likely shy away from playing 2 post players at one time because of the foul concerns.  This is going to put a lot of pressure on the Robinson to play with better energy.  Also, with this game being played in East Lansing, it is likely that Mitch McGary will start the game with 2 fouls.  While the absence of Jordan Morgan was felt some against Wisconsin, the style of play from Michigan State will likely make that an overwhelming weakness. 

But, all hope is not yet lost.  Since, Trice is likely out with a concussion, the Spartans will be forced to play a 6 man rotation for the majority of the game because Izzo does not trust his bench outside of Denzel Valentine.  It will be important for the Michigan guards to attack the hoop and not settle for contested jump shots.  Keith Appling and Valentine are very susceptible to picking up fouls because of not moving their feet on defense.  Depending on how the refs call the game, Trey Burke should be able to use that to his advantage.  If either point guard gets into foul trouble, the Spartans will be forced to go deeper into their bench where there is little to be desired.  Michigan State has struggled to defend the pick and roll at times this season, which is good news for the Wolverines.  This has a lot to do with Derrick Nix having the defensive range of a fire hydrant.  Burke should be able to get into the lane more tonight, which will likely force Dawson to suck into the middle.  It will be crucial for Hardaway and Stauskas to take some scoring pressure off from Burke. 

I don't think this game will have the feel it has the past two seasons, since both teams are more capable of playing at a quicker pace.  We could actually see the winner score 70 points.  I have discussed Michigan's defensive deficiencies many times, and Tom Izzo is one of the best at exploiting mismatches, so it seems very unlikely for Michigan to hold the Spartans under 65 points.  For the Wolverines to stick around in this game, and ultimately win, 2 of the 3 freshman playing major minutes will need to score at least their season average.  Also, on the defensive end, it will be important to for McGary to stay out of foul trouble.  If the refs are calling a tight game, then at some point Vanilla Thunder will just need to be unleashed and allowed to foul out.  He will need to be able to get into the rhythm of the game.  So far this season Michigan has bounced back with 2 huge wins after losses, and a third tonight would put them back in control of their own B1G destiny.