Week 4 Upset Alert

Week 4 is normally the final week of the non-conference season, which usually means each team plays a final glorified high school to tune up before the draining conference schedule.  That is the case for most B1G teams this year, but outside of that there are some major conference matchups around the country.  We are going to start getting into the time of year where multiple top 25 teams will lose every week, and possibly 1-2 top 10 teams.  All of the key matchups this week seem to be late afternoon or night games, which makes it tough for fans to choose which game to actually watch.

Missouri @ South Carolina 3:30pm

The Gamecocks are a top ten team at this point, but I have not been that impressed so far.  It seems like it is only a matter of time before they lose their first game of the year.  Missouri was impressive for the first half of the their SEC opener against Georgia, but that was at home.  I am excited to see what energy they come out with in this one.  Marcus Lattimore continues to slide down the Heisman watch with sub-100 yard games.  Will he be able to break out in this game?  I think South Carolina should win this game, but the final score will be closer than they would like.

Kansas State @ Oklahoma 7:50pm

I really have no idea how good either of these teams are.  Oklahoma struggled with UTEP in their opener and then Kansas State blew the doors off of a terrible Miami team.  I don’t see a lot of defense being played in this game, and will likely come down to a battle between the quarterbacks (Colin Klein and Landry Jones).  Jones has been prone to turning the ball over in big games, but he returned to school for his senior year to continue to improve his decision making and mistakes. Klein is a one man wrecking crew and likely will need to have a big game to knock off the top 5 team on the road.  I just don’t trust Jones, partially because who is named Landry, but also because I think he will have at least one bonehead play to keep the Wildcats around.  Klein can put up big numbers against this defense, and Kansas State is a difficult team to come back against with their control the ball style of play.  Just the way the season has gone so far, I like K-State in this one.

Syracuse @ Minnesota 8:00pm

Minnesota is coming into this game with a 3-0 record, compared to the Orange’s 1-2.  Syracuse has played a little tougher competition so far though (Northwestern and USC).  I don’t think the Golden Gophers can score enough points, without Gray, to keep up with the Nasib passing attack.  If he can limit his turnovers, this game might actually get a bit ugly by the end.

Clemson @ Florida State 8:00pm

I don’t know how much of an upset this can be with 2 top 10 teams meeting for the national game of the week, but since FSU is the pretty pick to make a national championship game and they are at home, a Tiger win would be an upset in my book.  These two teams seem to be mirror images of each other over the past 5-7 years.  Both continually get top 10 recruiting classes, and both continually under-achieve in actual games.  There will be a lot of NFL talent on the field in Tallahassee, but I just don’t see either team running the table and going undefeated.  Clemson has a high powered offense and Florida State has a very good defense.  But since these two teams have scheduled such “difficult” teams in the first 3 weeks (by difficult I mean it was a challenge scoring on every possession and they both might have punted a combined 4 times this season), we have no idea how good these teams really are.  I think Clemson will be able to score points on the Seminole defense with Taj Boyd and Sammy Watkins, and I don’t think the FSU offense will be able to match the Tiger fire power.  Look for this to be an exciting game played in the 30-40 point range.  

B1G Week3: Recap

While week 3 of the season didn’t get any worse for the already terrible conference, they did little to gain back any national respect.  The lone top ten team in the B1G welcomed Notre Dame to their own stadium and then dropped a giant stink bomb on national tv.  This is the 3^rd week in a row that a different conference team has played a night game on national tv, and the result continues to be the same: embarrassment.

Good surprise:

Well Penn State got back to their winning ways with a complete dominating effort against Navy.  I don’t think the Nittany Lions are really that good, but it was nice to see them putting together a solid game to get their first win. 

Braxton Miller continues to impress early in the season.  The Bucknut defense played terrible against an average Pac12 team coming across the country, but Miller put the game on his shoulders and led the Scarlett and Gray to a win.  The OSU vs MSU game to open the conference season should be one of the best games of the B1G season.

My other surprise would be Minnesota beating Western.  I picked them to win in a close game, but MarQueis Gray was injured in this game and a back up QB led the Golden Gophers to the victory.  Minnesota is looking very good to secure their first bowl invite under Jerry Kill.

Bad Surprise:

I am not sure where to start with this section because there is too much to choose from.  I will start with the marquee game of the week.  I will be honest, I thought Michigan State was head and shoulders better than Notre Dame.  Well Sparty didn’t show up at all for their Saturday night game and got blasted.  The Michigan State offense looked ready to struggle in the MAC, and the defense looked susceptible to the deep pass.  Andrew Maxwell actually looked like the least of their offensive worries, he delivered pass after pass on the money.  The State receivers look beyond bad at this point.  They couldn’t get separation from the decimated ND secondary, and when they did get some space they would drop the pass. It looks like Sparty is completely 1 dimensional right now.  Notre Dame did not respect the deep pass, and therefore put 8 or 9 guys in the box.  I don’t care if Bell can hurdle one guy, he cannot escape 3 unblocked defenders.  A lot of changes need to happen in East Lansing for Michigan State to really be a top 10 team again.

Wisconsin continues to look horrible on offense.  I put the Badgers on my upset watch, and looking back on the game, Wisconsin should be 1-2 at this point.  The biggest question with these clowns is, how are they still ranked in the coaches poll?  Wisconsin needs to improve a lot in the next week before they head to Lincoln to open B1G play.

The Ohio State defense gave up over 500 yards of offense to the Cal Bears.  California traveled across the country to play at Ohio State, and they played the game at 12:00pm (9 am in California).  The team should have been sluggish and possibly a bit overwhelmed in front of the 105,000+.  The Bucknut defense struggled to wrap up during tackles all afternoon.  They allowed more big plays than Meyer wanted to see all season.  The scheme changed to get more of a pass rush, but with the added aggression the edges could not keep contain like they should have.  Good thing the B1G is lacking on offensive talent, otherwise they could get gashed.  

I would say that my conference rankings are as follows:

1. Ohio St (Up 1)

2. Michigan (Up 1)

3. Michigan State (Down 2)

4. Purdue (no change)

5. Northwestern (no change)

6. Nebraska (no change)

7. Minnesota (up 1)

8. Illinois (up 1)

9. Penn State (up 1)

10. Iowa (up 1)

11. Wisconsin (down 4)

12. Indiana (no change)

Week 3: UMass Recap

Michigan did as expected on Saturday blowing out UMass 63-13.  As usual there were some things to like and some definite room for improvement.  I still think this game was much needed for Team 133, it basically was an extra practice against an uncommon opponent.  Both sides of the ball were able to work on some weaknesses, and it was nice as a fan to know the outcome was never in doubt. 

Like I said on Friday, we likely would not gain any positive knowledge about this team from a game against UMass.  I still think the question marks are there.  I was hoping that the defensive line would be able to dominate an inferior opponent, but they continue to struggle with any penetration.  Outside of Frank Clark, this unit continues to look average at best.  It appears that Desmond Morgan will remain in the starting lineup when he returns from a head injury, but both freshmen will get a lot of playing time.  The secondary struggles in run protection, but we still don’t know how good they will be in pass coverage against a decent team.  The defense is still struggling to force any turnovers.  I think this starts up front.  If the defensive line cannot get pressure, the likelihood of a turnover to happen greatly decreases.

On the offensive side of the ball, I am still discouraged by the push up front by the offensive line.  It seems like they are still struggling in run blocking, but are looking very good in pass protection.  Fitz looked more like himself on Saturday, but he did not have many running lanes to exploit. Denard seems to lose focus a few times a game, and during these times it is when we see the horribly thrown ball usually resulting an in interception.  When Denard is not under pressure and can concentrate on his mechanics, he looks extremely difficult to defend.  Denard got into a rhythm during Saturday’s game, but then becomes lackadaisical and makes a few bad decisions.  It will be interesting to see how he responds against a better, more aggressive defense this week at Notre Dame.

I was encouraged by a few individuals on defense.  Specifically, Frank Clark, Joe Bolden, and Mario Ojemudia.  Clark seems to have picked up where he was at the end of last season, and is quickly shaping into one of the best pass rushers in the B1G.  It also looks like he will lead the team in pass breakups, which is unheard of from a defensive lineman.  Joe Bolden and James Ross are fun to watch.  We know what Kenny Demens and Desmond Morgan are at linebackers (above average B1G LBs), but the two freshman behind them have the potential to be anchors of one of the best linebacker units in the country moving forward after this season.  Folks, these guys are good.  They are extremely good athletes, they play fast, and hit hard.  The problem right now is that they are freshman.  They are still learning the defensive system and have a tendency to give up big plays.  They are high risk, high reward type guys, which might be the direction this defense needs against tough offenses.  Super Mario got more playing time on Saturday than he did the first two games.  He already has the makings of a very good defensive end.  It looks like Michigan will continue to use him as a pass rush specialist, but he will need to add 25 pounds to be an every down guy.  I have been impressed with his ability to read an offensive play.  There were multiple times that big number 53 was making a tackle 7+ yards down the field.  He reminds me of Frank Clark last season, but he seems to be further along in the technique and football IQ than Clark was at this point last year. 

Looking ahead, Michigan faces its 2^nd major test in the first month as they head to South Bend to take on the Irish. This game should be a little more fun to watch than the Debacle in Dallas. Notre Dame will be favored in this game after they went into East Lansing and pummeled the Spartans. 

NFL Week 2: Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers

I have to be honest, I was not able to watch a single snap of Detroit's opening week win against St. Louis.  I was enjoying my hometown country fair, thats right people.  On a side note, I did correctly pick the Grand Champion Steer... again.  Anyways, I am glad the Lions got the first victory out of the way because this week they head on the road to face everyone's new favorite team.  I did catch some of the SF game in Green Bay, and I came away impressed just like everyone else.  Especially now after the Packers just took a dump on Jay Cutler and the Bears.  These two teams met last year and it was one of the most exciting games of the season.  The Lions were on the wrong side of a 4th down touchdown pass that gave Detroit their first loss of the season, but it was still an entertaining football game.  This year, the game is getting a lot more hype.  The 49ers made the NFC Championship game and were a few plays away from making the Super Bowl in Jim Harbaugh's first season, and we all know about the Lion's impressive year.  Jim Harbaugh has taken over a stout defense that he has infused with his aggressive style and a solid offense that he has turned into one of the deepest and toughest to game plan against.  I would say that is pretty good after 1 season.  This team does look primed to take over Green Bay's roost as the NFC's best team. 

So after that little hype up, do the Lions actually have a chance in this game?  Well with Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson you always have a chance, but this week might be a relatively small chance.  This will be a very important game for Detroit's national image.  Here in Michigan we think Detroit is better than Chicago and one of the top 5 teams in the NFC.  If Detroit can manage to go into Candlestick Park and pull out their 2nd win of the season on Sunday night, Detroit might become one of the favorites in the NFC.  While yes, this is just another regular season game, and Detroit likely needs to get to 10 wins to make the playoffs, this game could do a lot to boost confidence. 

San Francisco run offense vs Detroit run defense
This matchup will be the most important to watch on Sunday night.  This battle will have a big impact on the Lions having a chance to pull out a victory.  Last week the front 7 for Detroit did very well against Jackson and the Rams running attack.  If they can replicate that success, Sunday night will be quite the football game.  However, the 49ers are not the Rams.  They boast one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and a run first coach.  They also have a stable of good running backs, any of which would likely start for Detroit (Gore, Fuller, Jacobs, and LaMicheal James).  Their 4th string running back was who most of Detroit wanted to draft in the 2nd round and with Leshore's suspension would be thrown into the starting role.  He likely will not see a carry on Sunday.  Detroit's solid 8 man defensive line rotation will be strained on Sunday.  I am very excited to see the Lions interior line against the 49er guards and center, if Suh and company can get some pentetration, Detroit has a chance of slowing down the offense.  I would also like to see the defensive ends be more productive than last week against the Rams average line.  Advantage San Francisco.

San Francisco pass offense vs Detroit pass defense
Alex Smith will never be confused for Matthew Stafford, but Jim Harbaugh has turned him into quite the game manager.  Smith is the NFL version of the Alabama quarterback.  He is there to not lose the football game.  If the running game is working well, the 49er passing game will be opened up.  They use mainly play action passing  with Alex Smith, and last week it worked well against Green Bay considering he completed almost 80% of his passes.  San Francisco has added loads of skill players to put around Smith to make him feel more confident in the passing game.  Their current pass catching threats could be the best in the NFL.  See a pattern here, running backs and receivers/tight ends?.  They picked up Manningham and Moss in free agency.  They drafted Illinois star AJ Jenkins in the first round.  They have added these guys to Crabtree and Vernon Davis.  Yikes.  The Detroit pass defense all hinges on the defensive line's ability to get pressure on the quarterback.  The secondary is already depleted with injuries, and the line backers struggle in space to cover athletic tight ends.  If the line cannot force Smith to get rid of the ball quickly, I think Davis will have a monster game against the Lions.  There is just nobody on the roster who can cover him.  With all of the injuries for Detroit, they likely will be in zone coverage most of the night, which is pretty easy to pick apart if you have time to throw the ball.  The only thing that will help Detroit is if they are able to force some turnovers.  The problem is the once turnover-prone Smith has not thrown an interception in 8 straight games.  Also, remember he completed 77% last week agains the Packers who just forced Cutler into 4 interceptions and 7 sacks.  Double yikes.  Advantage San Francisco in a land slide.

Detroit run offense vs San Francisco run defense
Detroit is still missing their top 2 backs this week and will need to rely on Kevin Smith and Keenan Willaims again.  If Smith can stay up right for this game I think he is an above average running back, but the key here is can the Detroit offensive line run block as well as they did last week?  The history says no.  The Lion's offensive line is at their best when they can pass block, so Detroit's running game might look like a lot of screens and draw plays this week.  The 49er front line is very good again, and like I said earlier, Harbaugh plays an aggressive style.  They will bring the line backers or a defensive back on a blitz quite often.  This leaves them vulernable to long pass plays, but they will not have to worry about a homerun threat in the back field with the Lions.  At best the Lions can pick up a few short yardage first downs, but I doubt that the running game will be able to get more than 70 yards on the game.  Advantage San Francisco.

Detroit pass offense vs San Francisco pass defense
This matchup will be very fun to watch.  the 49ers will draw up one blitz after the other to knock Stafford around and get his confidence rattled.  If the offensive line can offer up any sort of resistance, Stafford will be able to find open receivers.  The problem here is the SF line backing unit might be the best in the NFL with Willis and Bowman.  Willis is very good in coverage and in run support.  Detroit will need to use Pettigrew's size advantage in this game, so Stafford is going to have to put the ball in tight windows.  The Packer line struggled with the all out blitz coming up the middle, and Rodgers was not able to get rid of the ball in time a lot last Sunday.  I think San Francisco will limit the blitzes a bit in this game because of the Calvin Johnson worry, but the offensive line will have their hands full still.  Stafford will need to pick apart the 49er secondary, which might be the weakest unit on the entire team, but still above average.  If he in not running for his life, there is no reason to think he can't throw for over 300 yards again.  I also think the 3 interceptions in one game will not happen again either.  Look for Stafford to hit Calvin for their first TD connection of the season, and possibly a few big plays.  Advantage Detroit slightly. 

Special teams
The San Francisco kicker, David Akers, just drilled a 62 yarder last week in Green Bay.  Hanson is consistent, but no longer has the length strength like that.  Field position will play a key role in this game as well.  If Detroit is starting close to their own end zone a lot, look for SF to bring the heat over and over.  Last week the field position battle was won by Detroit, and it likely won them the game.  Advantage push.

As much as I want to see the Lions go to the west coast and get their 2nd win of the season, I just don't see it happening.  Detroit has too many holes on defense, and SF has too many weapons to exploit those issues.  I do think Stafford makes some big throws to keep Detroit close, but in the end the Lion defense cannot get off the field enough and San Francisco pulls out a 31-21 win. 

Week 3: Michigan vs UMass Preview

It is finally Friday afternoon, which means it is time for my weekly preview of the Michigan football game.  The Wolverines showed some high powered offense last week against Air Force, but still left little to be desired on the defensive side.  This week, against possibly the worst FBS team, Big Blue will need to stiffen up on that side of the ball.  Some encouraging notes, however, most people forget how much the defense struggled in the first 2 weeks of the season last year, and only remember where it was when the team finished in the top 10.  This year, the expectations might have been a little high with the preseason number 8 ranking, but it was unfair to believe this defense would be able to pick up where Team 132 left off.  We also do not know how good this defense really is after playing Alabama and Air Force, and we likely will not know any more until after we head to South Bend.  Alabama's offensive efficiency will likely be one of the best in all of college football, while Air Force's offensive system is one of the most unique in all of college football (and they run their technique to perfection).  Am I concerned about the defensive line not holding blocks well? Yes.  Am I concerned that our starting LB's have slow lateral movement and struggle to contain the edge? Yes. Am I concerned that our cornerbacks struggle in run defense? Yes. Am I excited to see them play a normal offensive system with little to no talent?  Hell yes. This defense should be hungry to destroy someone, and this week should give them an opportunity to look dominant and gain some confidence before playing Notre Dame. So even though this week will not likely show us fans how good this defense truly is, I think it can go a long ways in helping the group improve.

UMass run offense vs Michigan run defense
The Minutemen have a name well known around Ann Arbor in their backfield.  Mike Cox is a 5th year transfer for UMass.  If you don't remember his name, no worries as he did little to nothing while in the winged helmet.  He couldn't beat out Vincent Smith or Mike Shaw for the starting job, and that alone should tell you all you need to know.  UMass is going to be overmatched in the Big House this week.  It is not 2010 when they managed to score 37 on the Maize and Blue.  So far against two terrible teams (UConn and Indiana) UMass has scored a total of 6 points.  The defensive line should be able to get penetration in the backfield and blow up many run plays.  Currently, the Minutemen are averaging less than 3 yards per carry.  Michigan's defense should be able to hold them to that for a 3rd straight week. Now, if the front 4 for the Wolverines struggles this week, we will have strong reason to be concerned for the rest of the season.  There really is no win situation for this unit this week.  If Michigan holds the Minutemen to 50 yards rushing, fans shrug their shoulders and say we still know nothing.  If UMass manages to get to 100+ yards, fans will push the panic button with both hands, and next week will not be fun in the blogosphere. I think this week will be a good opportunity to get the youngsters some more significant playing time to continue to add to the rotational depth as we head into meaningful games.  I also think this group has too much pride to get pushed back or cut down this week.  Look for 2+ sacks to come from this unit.  Advantage Michigan.

UMass pass offense vs Michigan pass defense
If UMass drops back into passing situations, it could be the best practice for any Michigan defensive position group.  They were only tested a handful of times last week.  I think the lose of Blake Countess hurts Michigan a lot, but the Wolverines will not face a dominant pocket passing quarterback/ receiver tandem the rest of the season.  I believe Raymon Taylor, Courtney Avery, JT Floyd and whoever else gets some reps as cornerback will be good enough this year.  It will also really help for experience purposes for 2013 and beyond since Taylor and Avery will get so much playing time this year.  This unit could be really special moving forward.  UMass has very little talent in this area of offense, but they do like to try and stretch the field for some big passing plays.  Most of these will come from play action.  I wouldn't be surprised if Michigan gives up at least 1 long passing play, but for the most part this group should shut down the Minutemen.  I am also excited to see how the pass rush will fare in this game.  They managed to get to the quarterback a few times against Alabama and again against Air Force at the end of the game.  I think Jake Ryan will continue to impress, and someone from the Clark/Roh/Ross/Ojemudia group ends up with a big play. Advantage Michigan.

Michigan run offense vs UMass run defense
I doubt we will see so many designed running plays for Denard in this game.  I also doubt we will see Denard for 4 quarters.  The Michigan offense needs to get Fitz going.  He missed some cutback opportunities last week, and also was the recipient of some back blocking in front of him.  Look for the offensive line to have a dominant game, and for Fitz to get as many carries as he needs to get over 100 yards.  This game will also be a good chance to get Rawls, Hayes, and possibly even Norfleet some carries in the 2nd half.  I think Michigan will end up with close to 300 yards rushing in this game. Advantage Michigan.

Michigan pass offense vs UMass pass defense
I doubt Al Borgess will call too many passing plays in this game, but I hope we do.  Other than getting Fitz going on the ground, I would like to see Denard's improvements in the passing game. He has looked decent this season as a passer, and had some very good throws in the first two weeks.  We know what we have in Denard's legs, so I would really like to see some more work in the passing game.  I might be the only one, but I get really interested when we call passing plays.  I don't know if I want to say excited, but I want to see Denard's reads, touch, arm strength, and decisions.  Hopefully he can go a game without an interception and can work on his TD to INT ratio some.  The other interesting thing to watch for is honoring Ron Kramer, the hall of fame TE from Michigan.  His number 87 jersey will be the Legend Jersey this week.  Will freshman Devin Funchess get this honor, or will it go to a defensive player? Advantage Michigan.

Special Teams
Should not matter in this game, but I would like to see Norfleet take a kick return to the house.  The problem is he might only get one chance.

Intangibles
Michigan has only forced 1 turnover so far this season while losing the ball themselves 4 times.  It will be good to see the defense force some turnovers tomorrow, while the offense gets a clean slate.  Last year the Michigan defense surrendered a lot of yards in the first two weeks, but they forced a lot of turnovers.  If this year's unit can do begin to the do the same, people will start to feel better about the questionable defensive line.

There is little to gain as fans from a game with a line of 45.5 points, but I can guarantee you the coaches are glad this one is on the schedule.  Last week I thought Michigan would play angry and punch Air Force in the mouth, but their defensive scheme was ineffective and they had an untimely turnover.  I was impressed with how the offense played.  This week look for both units to look dominant and for Michigan to finish off the Minutemen in a lopsided final: 52-6.

B1G Week 3 Preview

I don't think the conference can look as bad as it did last week, especially in Week 3 also known as Cupcake City.  Most B1G teams will use weeks 3 and 4 as tune ups for the conference schedule.  While there are some marquee games this week, the majority will be close to unwatchable after kickoff.  As always the game of the week will be bolded.

Western Michigan @ Minnesota 12:00pm
Minnesota has impressed me so far this season.  They will not be contending for the Legend's Division title, but I think the Gophers can get back to a bowl game this season.  Western's QB Alex Carder will test the Minnesota secondary, but MarQueis Gray should have another big game against this defense.  I think he continues to make just enough plays to get the Golden Gophers to 3-0.

Arkansas St @ Nebraska 12:00pm
Ex-Auburn offensive genius Gus Malzahn (helped out by Cam Newton) has relocated to the football power of Arkansas St and has brought his up-tempo system with him.  Nebraska's horrible defensive unit will likely again struggle to completely shut down this attack, but it will be a good turnaround game from the embarrassment in Pasadena last week.  Arkansas St has one of the worst defenses in all of college football, so look for Taylor Martinez to win Big Ten offensive player of the week because you know Pelini will not call off the dogs in this one.

California @ Ohio State 12:00pm
California is likely worse than Central Florida, but they do have one of the best receivers in college football.  The problem is any of their quarterbacks will struggle to throw to him.  We will see if Urban Meyer reduces Miller's rushing attempts after a crazy 27 last week.  He has to realize this will not last through the B1G season.  Will freshman Bri'onte Dunn step up and have a big week?  This game will be more about getting the a 2nd playmaker on offense than an actual test for the Bucknuts because I just don't think Cal is any good this year.  If Meyer wants to get some good experience for a few running backs, this score could be closer than if Miller goes off for 25+ runs again.

Charleston Southern @ Illinois 12:00pm
Illinois returns home after a rough trip to the desert. Nathan Scheelhaase keeps saying he is going to play in this one which makes no sense to me.  A Nick Sheridan led team could hang half a century in this one.  You have too much time on your hands if you watch this one.

Eastern Michigan @ Purdue 12:00pm
It doesn't look like the Eagles are any good this season, just as I thought Ron English was building a decent program in Ypsilanti.  Purdue is coming off a tough loss at Notre Dame and losing one of their quarterbacks.  It might take Caleb TerBush a while to get going, but Eastern should present little resistance on defense. Purdue running back Akeen Shavers should have a big game, along with the Boilermaker defensive line. 

Boston College @ Northwestern 3:30pm
Northwestern is coming off of two completely different styles of games with both resulting in backup QB Trevor Siemian leading 4thn quarter comebacks.  If both the Wildcat offense and defense show up in this game, the final won't be close.  Somehow I doubt Northwestern puts together a complete game in this one.  Boston College will likely hang around for the first half, but the Wildcats have too much offensive firepower to lose this one.

Navy @ Penn State 3:30pm
Somehow Penn State is on ABC for the 2nd straight week, and I am really hoping us in the Ann Arbor area get a different game during this time slot.  The Nittany Lions are bad, and they aren't even a fun bad team to watch.  It looks like 3 yards and a cloud of dust without any talent.  Navy looked even worse against Notre Dame to open the season.  This will be a battle to get the first win in Happy Valley.  As bad as Navy looked, Penn State will likely have enough mistakes to keep this game close.  I still don't know if the Nittany Lions can score more than 17 in this one, but 17 might be enough for the victory.

Northern Iowa @ Iowa 3:30pm
I have gone with Hawkeyes in each of the first two weeks by basically saying the same thing: James Vandenberg will make enough throws to get the win.  It doesn't look like he is going to make enough throws this season, and seems to really be struggling with the new offensive coordinator and without a star receiver.  It will be a struggle for Iowa to get their 2nd offensive touchdown of the year, and after Northern Iowa almost won at Wisconsin I think they will come into Iowa with more confidence.  I doubt the Hawkeyes get anything going offensively again, and Northern Iowa makes enough plays to escape with a close upset.

Ball State @ Indiana 8:00pm
Indiana has already won 2 games this year, and I would favor them to win this one if Tre Robinson wasn't out for the year. Will the new quarterback be able to find any rhythm against the Hoosiers toughest test so far?  I think Indiana will be able to move the ball a bit on the Cardinals, but in the end Ball State comes away with a win.

Notre Dame @ Michigan State 8:00pm
Considering how this is the national game of the week on ABC, it seems like the obvious pick.  For once, as Michigan fans, we will be able to watch the Spartans take on the Irish a week before us.  I think Notre Dame will be a better test than Boise State was to open the year, and if Andrew Maxwell plays anything like he did in that night game the Irish will run away with this game.  I am excited to see how well Gholson can run the offense against the tough Spartan defense, and then how well Le'Veon Bell can pick up yards against a full sized ND defense.  I think Michigan can learn a lot about 2 future opponents in this game.  I think Maxwell looks closer to week 1 than week 2, but the offensive line holds up a little better which will help the Spartan QB.  I think Michigan State will build up a lead against the Irish and be able to use Bell to eat up the clock in a closer score than the stats show.

Utah State @ Wisconsin 8:00pm
Can the Badgers bounce back from two sub-par offensive weeks?  I think they will respond to the new OL coach, but still not look as dominant as many of us expected.  Utah State is coming off of an upset of rival Utah and could surprise ole Bucky, but Camp Randall should be rocking for the night game and Montee Ball makes enough plays to give Wisconsin another ugly win.

Week 3 Upset Alert

The third week of the season usually is cupcake city for the major programs around college football.  This year there are some intriguing games scheduled for Saturday. 

Alabama @ Arkansas 3:30pm
This choice seems pretty crazy after what happened to Arkansas last weekend, but remember they were a top 10 team that got upset by a bad team.  The Razorbacks lost Tyler Wilson in the 2nd quarter with an injury and managed just over 100 yards for the rest of the game, including overtime.  If Tyler Wilson is back under center on Saturday afternoon, this game could be a lot closer than expected.  Arkansas will want to forget last weekend as soon as possible, and they have the offensive firepower to test Alabama's young secondary.  I dont think the Razorbacks have enough to win this game, but I think it will be a lot closer than expected if Wilson plays.

Florida @ Tennessee 6:00pm
Staying in the SEC, this game really wouldnt be an upset if Tennessee wins, but there aren't many games to choose from this week.  Tennessee is 5-15 against the Gators in the last 20 years, and they are currently 0-10 under Coach Dooley against ranked teams. Florida escaped Aggieland last weekend with a hard fought win, but I think they struggle at Neyland Stadium.  I think Tyler Bray will have a big game passing against the Gator secondary. 

Utah St @ Wisconsin 8:00pm
We will find out more about the Badger's struggles this week.  I could not believe how bad they looked last weekend against Oregon State.  Now they head home to face a tough Utah State team coming off a victory against rival Utah.  Wisconsin has the major talent edge here, but that has been the case in the first 2 weeks as well.  Wisconsin is not playing good football right now, will this be the week they turn things around?  I still cannot (or don't want to) believe that Purdue is the favorite to represent the Leaders Division in the B1G championship game.

Texas @ Mississippi 9:15pm
Texas strolls into Oxford the heavy favorites.  Somehow the Longhorns are ranked number 14 in the nation, which I feel is quite high for their level of play so far.  Ole Miss has started 2-0 and has been a surprise team in the SEC so far.  Saturday night's game will go a long ways in telling if they will actually make some noise in the toughest conference and push for a bowl game.  Texas has more talent that the Rebels, but I think they can say that in every game they play this season.