The Verlander Project

I think Justin Verlander is still pitching to the Royals… only 38 hours after he started.  When he finally recorded the last out of Monday’s game against Kansas City, he had thrown 131 pitches.  He finally got his first win of the season after his 3^rd quality start, but I am not sure of the costs it took to get it. 

While watching the game on Monday, I knew that the best pitcher in the game was again locked in and dominating the Royals.  After giving up a lame first inning run, he locked in and made the Royals look pretty stupid for most of their at bats.  Then in the bottom of the 8^th inning, he started getting hit pretty hard.  He was not fooling the hitters anymore, and it looked like they were actually getting comfortable against our ace.  I applauded when he finished the inning, expecting to see the Big Potato to close out the game.  I guess Leyland saw something different. 

With 102 pitches already, Verlander took the mound for the 9^th in his second straight outing.  At first I questioned this move immediately.  I didn’t understand the benefit of letting JV throw another pressure inning.  I know he struggled in his last outing in the 9^th, and maybe Marlbro Man wanted him to be able to finish this game.  But mid-April, in his third start, is not the time to push JV to the max.  Justin has had multiple complete games including 2 no-hitters, he knows how to close out a game.  He is mentally tough.  After he blew the game in his last start, he came back and shut down the Royals for 8 innings.  That is a good start.  There is no need to pull another inning out of him.  Yes he can handle it because he is a freak of nature and can carry a bigger workload than any other pitcher right now.  But I don’t get the mindset.  Monday was not the middle of a September division race, it was not a playoff game, it was not a no-hitter bid.  While JV will immediately tell you that he was barely tired at the end of the game, I don’t get the point of even pushing that limit.  I would rather have those last 29 pitches he threw in the 9^th in October.  Verlander doesn’t need to prove anything to anyone.  He is the best pitcher in baseball, period.  He has had bad luck to start the season, but it is not time to push the panic button and let him go the distance the rest of the season.  I understand that Verlander wanted to go back out there in the 9^th, and why wouldn’t he?  He is a competitor.  I would be worried if he didn’t want to get the complete game in the books.  But at some point the manager needs to see what is the best for the team (and the future of the team).  Verlander threw 261 innings last season, and his pitch count was 100+ more than the next closest starting pitcher.  The goal this season was to reduce his innings back down to 230-240, to hopefully keep him more fresh for the post season.  Well so far to start the year, this goal has been put on the back burner.  He is currently on pace to go over 300 innings.

Then on the other hand, I know Valverde is struggling to start this season.  But has Leyland already lost confidence in him? Valverde has really never been a lock down dominant closer.  49/49 saves last year had some luck involved, and they weren’t always pretty 1-2-3 innings. The numbers suggest that is the case, but as Detroit fans we should know better.  He will give us heart problems occasionally, he will make us angry at times, but the dude is getting paid a lot of money to finish games for this team.  The Royals had the bottom of the order coming up, they were not going to win this game.  I would trust a rested Valverde in that situation more than an overthrowing starter (even if that starter happens to be JV).  Pape Grande saved 13 of JV’s 24 wins last season, at some point Leyland is going to have to let him try again. 

The JV saga has been very interesting so far to start the season.  He has been locked in since opening day, and hasn’t let up through 3 starts.  If Valverde hadn’t blown the save on opening day, nobody would have thought twice about pulling JV after 8.  It was the first game of the season, his pitch count was getting high, and we had a closer that hadn’t blown a save in his last 51 chances.  Then against Tampa Bay, the pitch count was extremely low (81 after 8 innings).  Leyland did the right thing in letting him go out there and get the complete game win.  I disagree with letting him so long though, after 2 runners got on base I would have gone to Valverde just so Verlander wouldn’t have gotten the loss.  Then Monday night, I don’t understand the mindset at all.  I would have let Valverde do his job, but at least we got the win and the Tigers are still in first place. 

Spring Game review

I was excited for this year’s version of the Michigan Spring Game.  I thought it had a good chance for a high fan turnout and I thought it was going to show the continued improvement on both sides of the ball.  I wasn’t necessary correct on either of those predictions.

For another year, the weather threatened the Spring Game, this year they even considered canceling the game and moving it indoors (private).  Luckily Saturday turned out to be a decent day, but the chance of rain kept a lot of people from going (or at least I hope that is the reason).  There were only about 25,000 people that showed up for the free game.  I cannot complain too much about this because I was also out of town for the weekend.  I am excited to go again next year though because it is a pretty cool atmosphere. 

As for the product on the field, I definitely overlooked the continued depth issues.  I forgot that even after the 11-2 season, this program is still in rebuilding mode.  It takes longer than 1 year to completely rid ourselves from the previous coach who shall not be named.  I forgot that we have 7 scholarship offensive lineman, SEVEN!  This is a position where you would like 12-15.  Yes, more reinforcements are coming in the next 2 recruiting classes, but I forgot that they aren’t on campus yet.  This lack of depth I think really forced the game to be very boring.  The offense wasn’t able (or willing) to really run any plays that were at all creative in a public practice, and this rubbed off on the defensive calling as well.  Another thing to look forward to as Michigan fans, the 2013 Spring Game should be one that is an actual game setting and not just a practice.

I will start with some of the concerning things that I saw from Saturday, and then end on the high note.  Devin Gardner either forgot he was a quarterback or is really wanting to be a starting receiver.  He finished 2-9 passing, with 1 strong throw over the middle.  The rest of the passes were borderline terrible.  He constantly threw off his back foot while not set, and it resulted in floating, overthrown balls.  Also, he was intercepted twice. While he did look very strong running the ball, there didn’t seem to be any progression from last year to this in the passing game from the 2^nd best athlete on the team.  Personally, I think this was more of a very bad day on the football field than what to expect from Devin, but it still doesn’t leave much confidence with the fan base. 

I know the play calling was pretty boring throughout the 70 play practice, but I wonder how much that has to do with the lack of trust/ability of the receiving corp.  A deep ball wasn’t even attempted once.  I think this is from a combination of both (play calling and ability).  Our receivers need a boost of depth and talent if this Michigan team is going to be as successful as the past 2 years.  There are 2 highly rated freshman arriving this summer, and it is a position where young talent can shine, but it is also a little unreasonable to expect a freshman receiver to turn into our first option.  The passing game could be a legitimate weakness this season, even if Denard greatly improves in the offense.  I still imagine Denard throwing up jump balls, but with no Hemingway to pull them down, they will just result in bad decisions.  If Denard isn’t throwing these jump balls, then the number of sacks will likely increase. 

Switching gears, I was very impressed with the defense for most of the day (even with the boring plays).  The linebacker unit looks like it will be a strength for this year and then every year moving forward.  The team already has depth at the position, with only more talent coming in for the fall.  This should allow us to redshirt at least one of the incoming recruits.  Hawthorne was utilized in a great way for the scrimmage, he was able to play in the open field for the most part.  This resulted in an interception, and some very fast blitzes that were not able to be blocked.  I don’t think he will be a starter at any point this season, but he should be pushing to see some time (especially in passing situations that allow him to cover a TE or go hard after the QB).  Morgan is the exact opposite of Hawthorne, he is consistent.  He sheds blocks and tackles anything that moves near him.  He is not nearly as quick as his backup, which limits his coverage and blitzing ability, but he is a very strong anchor in the middle of the defense. The rest of the group is strong as well, Bolden looks like he will see the field this fall.  Ryan is going to continue to be a monster off the edge.  Poole could get some field time, and we still have Demmens returning for his senior season.  Also, for the first time in recent memory, a Michigan team actually has some depth in the secondary.  Floyd has locked down one side, and Countess the other, but there are multiple guys that will continue to push for playing time (either in the Nickel package or as a backup that sees 20+plays a game).  The defensive line also looked good at times, but I don’t know if this was because of the offensive line struggling or the DL being a strength.  I think this position group could struggle early in the season (especially against the best OL in the nation – Bama), but by the end of the year they could be very solid.  As much as the defense made huge leaps forward for the year prior last season, I think they will only get better for Team 133. 

The final area that looked good to me were the running backs.  Fitz was only in the scrimmage for a short period of time, but he looked in midseason form.  There is a reason he is getting early season Heisman looks.  Then Rawls has seemed to lock up the back up position at this point, he ran very hard and runs downfield.  There is very little shiftiness with Thomas at this point, but if the line can open up holes for him to get to the second level, he will be very tough to tackle.  With his improvements, this will allow us to redshirt Drake Johnson and use Dennis Norfleet and Justice Hays in more open field roles (return game and slot receiver). 

Even though the Spring Game didn’t live up to most people’s expectations, it was still fun to see football in the Big House again.  Hopefully it will hold us over until Labor Day weekend, or at least until we land another huge recruit. J

Go Blue!

Trey Burke is returning

With Trey Burke returning for his sophomore season, the expectations will continue to grow for the Michigan basketball team over the next 6 months.  I have to admit, next season could be something special for us Wolverine fans, but I am still left with a bad taste in my mouth from the whole Trey process. 

The week before he officially announced he was going to return to Ann Arbor, several reports claimed he was entering the draft.  With so many different news outlets sharing the news, it seemed all but certain.  During that week I, along with other Michigan fans, likely went through the stages of grief.  There was intense anger, even with multiple people on social media telling Burke what a stupid decision he was and people rooting for an injury in his first NBA appearance.  There was sadness.  There was the hope for the future, and while Burke makes Michigan a Final Four or bust preseason team… there was still going to be more than enough talent in Ann Arbor to field a good team.  We all turned our eyes toward this no name kid from Indiana (Spike Albrecht), we watched his game films, and we hoped he could be a band aid.  Coach B got him on campus and offered him a scholarship the same day, within minutes of the offer Spike was our 4^th recruit in the 2012 class.  By about this time last Friday I would guess most Michigan fans got to a point of acceptance of Burke’s decision.  While we might not agree with it, lost respect for him as a boy, we accepted that the program we love had to move on. 

Then Monday morning came and the reports made a 180 turn.  Trey Burke has made a final decision, and he wants to come back for his sophomore year.  Now what do we do? We were moving on without him as fans, we were ready to fall in love with the over-achieving backyard dog Spike.  We knew he wouldn’t possibly leave after one season.  We accepted that while we wouldn’t be a Final Four team, it is light years ahead of where we were just a few short years before.  But not so fast.  Trey has decided to stay.  Our leader and All-American was coming back, if only for one season. 

It is a weird situation.  It is all but certain that Trey will enter the draft after next season.  I guess we will experience a little of what Kentucky fans do every year.  When they get the top recruit in the nation, they all know and have to accept he is not there to be a Kentucky legend, but merely use their facilities and coaching for a year to then take his talents to the No Basketball Association.  Trey is the same way.  I will never agree with this decision.  Even if I was a lock to be the number 1 overall recruit, I have been brought up with the mindset that nothing can top a college education.  What a blessing these kids have, they get a world class college education for free, but somehow this does not compute.  I would try to let my own son make his own decision with this process, but I would certainly let him know how I felt about it.  Yes there will always be risks in returning to school.  I understand that injuries could happen, and millions of dollars could be lost.  But injuries could happen in the NBA as well, and without a college degree to fall back on… these kids are back to square one.  Part of it is that I experienced college.  I know that it only gets better after your freshman year.  I know that it is a time that you can never replicate or enter into fully after your early 20s.  I learned how to become a better student, a leader, a friend, and a man in my time in Ann Arbor.  It is a place that I met people that will be in my life for many years, my closest friends, and my wife. I would NEVER trade that experience for anything.  But Trey doesn’t get it, and I guess he never will.

So while I will never embrace or fully understand his decision to leave early if/when it happens, I will learn again how to cheer for #3.  I will be a crazed fan again, and I will be excited with every win; upset with every loss and constantly hoping for a trip to Atlanta come the first weekend of April 2013.  Until then I guess I have to learn how to accept this new age college basketball. 

Tigers: Week one recap (5-1)



View from Wednesday's game!



The first week of the MLB season is complete, and all I can say is… man, did I miss baseball.  The Tigers should be 6-0 right now with the Central division all but locked up, instead they are only 5-1 with the Central division title in sight.  Even though the one loss was a blown game in the 9^th inning by the best pitcher in baseball, it is hard to be that upset with this team right now.

As we all expected, the Detroit Tigers are by far the best team in the AL Comedy Central.  Kansas City is looking like they have an actual team this year, but the rest of the division is a littered with glorified AAA teams. There have been some interesting developments already in the young season though.

1.       If Miguel Cabrera is not the best hitter in the league right now, he is 1A.  Everyone knows that he has great power and to all fields as well.  But the thing that impresses me the most about Miggy is how calm he looks at the plate.  It seems like major league baseball is easy for him most plate appearances, almost like a high schooler playing in the Little League World Series.  It is not often you can say that at the professional level, so we are extremely lucky to be able to watch him every day.  One example was in the first game vs Tampa on Tuesday, Miggy was facing a hard throwing lefty.  He got in a quick 2 strike hole, then after fouling off 2 pitches and taking 1 ball he laced an opposite field hit.  With 2 strikes, Miggy hit the base of the wall in right center for a double.  As he is protecting the plate, he hits a 400 foot shot the opposite way.  He is the perfect combination of raw power, bat speed, and he has one of the best plate presences that I have EVER seen.  Plus, it is about time that the big guy is hitting in the 3^rd spot.  As the opposing starting pitcher, knowing that you will have to face Miguel in the 1^st inning cannot be settling.  I think it is one of the main reasons why Austin is having such a great start to the year.  I could go on and on, but I will continue as the season progresses and Miggy is batting .350.  Maybe this year he will actually win the Silver Slugger. 

2.       Justin Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball.  It is something special when we get to watch 1 player make MLB look easy, but we have 2.  He is locked in to midseason form, and has been for his first 2 starts.  Through his first 16 innings pitched, he had given up 3 hits and 0 runs.  Yes, he struggled to close out the Rays on Wednesday and it resulted in our only loss, but this guy is dominant.  His ERA skyrocketed to 2.20.  the most frustrating part of these 2 great starts is that the offense has scraped together 4 total runs for the guy.  I think that will change in Kansas City next week, look for JV to get his first of many wins. 

3.       The offense is loaded from top to bottom.  Yesterday the Tigers scored 7 runs off a very good Ray’s pitcher.  7 runs seems standard for these guys with Miggy, Biggy, Delmon, Peralta, etc.  Except yesterday Detroit scored 7 runs with little to no help from those 4 guys.  Miggy had his first hitless game, Biggie Smalls got on base but didn’t drive home any runs.  The game was won by 2 2 out singles from Boesch (on his birthday), a triple by the always speedy Avila, and a triple by Dirks.  Yes, there will be games that the Tigers struggle to score (look at JV’s two starts) but the majority of the games are going to look like the other 4 of the season so far. 

Yes, there still are questions about the starting rotation.  With Fister out, Max is going to have to step up and eat up some innings to protect this bullpen.  I am very confident that JV will have 30 quality starts this year.  Fister seems like a guy that we can count on to have 25+.  The question marks then will be with the remaining 3 guys.  Can Porcello recreate his great first start more than 15 times?  Can Max be more consistent, he can go from All-Star caliber to pulled in the 3^rd inning.  Even if his ERA stays around 4-4.50 this season, I want to see him be a consistent 7 inning guy giving up 3 runs.   Drew Smyly looked great at times in the MLB debut yesterday, and I think he can be just as productive as the bartender was last season for us… plus it will be more fun to root for a 22 year old rookie.  I know Tampa’s offense isn’t the most formidable that he will face this season, but I wouldn’t be surprised with his stuff if he cant win 10+ games for us. 

The bullpen seems improved since last season.  The addition by subtraction of Perry has been good so far.  Also, the traveling baseball player (Dotel) will be a huge asset for the Tigers.  If the key guys can stay healthy (Coke, Dotel, Benoit, and Valverde) the bullpen can actually be a postseason strength.  Have the starters get to the 6^th, and then these 4 lockdown pitchers can take it from there.  Albuquerque is supposed to be coming back after the All-Star break, which could add a huge arm to the pen.  I am also really liking the addition of Balester so far this season.  He seems like a more refined Perry.  He can throw in the mid-90s, but seems to have great control over his stuff.  It will be nice to get Al back so then Schlereth can be demoted to Single A ball. 

As Tiger fans you have to like what you are seeing from the Boys of Summer, the Woodward Warriors, the Big 2 and little 7, or the Motown Mashers.  From everything that I am seeing right now, I think a 100 win season could be a very real possibility. 

Go Tigers!

MLB 2012 Preview: National League

NL EAST:

This division is greatly improved over recent years.  Each team here should be a legitimate playoff contender (outside of the Mets).  Will the Phillies get any offense outside of Hunter Pence? Can Heyward return to rookie form this season for Atlanta, will they rally around Chipper’s retirement to win the division? How effective will Strasburg be after Tommy John surgery, and how soon does Bryce Harper come to the big leagues? Will Miami actually be competitive, or just an entertaining reality show? Will the Mets lose 120 games?  I happen to think that Miami will crash and burn in flames at some point this season, but at least it will be interesting (like their new stadium).  The dugout is not big enough for Guillen, Rameriez, and Zambrano to co-exist.  Also, I think Hanley will do his usual pouting technique as soon as they start losing or when he doesn’t like 3^rd base.  The Phillies have the best rotation in baseball, with one of the worst offenses to begin the season.  I don’t know if it will recover in time to win the division.  Can they win enough 1-0, 2-1 games to stay in contention?  The Braves are looking like a team on a mission right now, and why wouldn’t they be?  I would want to win for one of the best teammates too.  I think Jair Jurjens will take another developmental step in the rotation, and then Freeman and Heyward carry the offense enough to be a playoff team.  That leaves the Nationals.  While they are making progress to get better (similar to the Blue Jays), there is just too much depth ahead of them in this division to make a playoff push. 

Final Standings Prediction:

Atlanta

Philadelphia

Washington

Miami

New York

NL CENTRAL:

Can Michigan Man, Mike Matheny, pick up where LaRussa left off?  I don’t think the Cardinals can even begin to replace Albert Pujols in this lineup.  Likely they all would need career years in order to break even from what Big Al brought to the table.  Currently their pitching staff is in shambles and nobody knows when they are going to be at full strength.  The Cincinnati Reds should be the team to beat this season in the Central.  They are the most balanced team overall.  Can Joey Votto get back to MVP form this season and anchor the offense in their hitter friendly park?  It will be interesting to see the Cuban fireballer, Chapman, in the rotation.  Is he a legitimate starter?  Tigers fans might hope that they tank the division though and be shopping Brandon Phillips at the trade deadline (it would make the Tigers a World Series favorite in my book).  The Cubs will be in rebuild mode this year as they try to drop Soriano’s contract from the books and replace him with younger talent.  I think the Cubs will be a team that plays hard and that becomes a MLB fan favorite, but I just don’t think they can really compete with the best teams in this division.  The Brewers should be another very good team, but it will be interesting to see Braun play with less protection in the lineup now that Prince is gone.  I think their pitching staff will keep them in the playoff hunt down the stretch, but I don’t know if they have the offensive support around the MVP to win the division.  There likely will not be 2 teams that make the playoffs in this division. That leaves us with the Pirates and the Astros.  I am always pulling for Pittsburgh to break their streak of losing seasons, but I am not confident that this will be the year for that.  The Astros, well they might be worse than some AAA teams. 

Final Standings Prediction:

Cincinnati

Milwaukee

St. Louis

Pittsburgh

Chicago

Houston

NL WEST:

Another division race that should come down to the wire will be in the West.  All of the teams besides San Diego could be in the running for the playoffs.   This race might come down to injuries and trade deadline moves.  The Dodgers finally have new owners, and with Magic Johnson as part of that, I think he will bring his competitive personality to the table and want to win soon (I think they will be one of the teams to beat next season).  Arizona surprised everyone last season by winning the division and making the playoffs. They will not surprise people this year.  The Diamondbacks didn’t make a big splash with offseason moves, but they should be a solid team again led by star pitcher Kennedy.  San Francisco gets Buster Posey back from the broken ankle.  I doubt he will be able to catch as much as he did before the injury.  Will they put him somewhere else in the field or just have to give him more days off.  The Giants offense is bad, and its only improvement is getting Posey back.  Can he carry the load by himself?  I think SF will still score the fewest runs in baseball, but the pitching staff could keep them relevant into September. Colorado is always interesting.  They have one of the best players in Tulowitski, but after trading Jimenez last season they don’t have much to help him out.  I think the Rockies can win some games this year, but they will likely be on the outside looking in come seasons end. This leaves us with San Diego.  The Padres are bad and after dumping a lot of their talent last year, there isn’t much hope for this season either. 

Final Standings Predictions:

Arizona

San Francisco

Los Angeles

Colorado

San Diego

NL Playoff Picture

If the Giants and Phillies meet in the one game playoff, it will definitely be a pitchers duel.  Possibly they first team to 1 wins.  The Phillies are the better team, that is pretty obvious, but some reason I will go with the Giants to find a way to win. 

NLDS

Braves over Giants in 5

Cincinnati over Arizona in 4

NLCS

Braves over Cincinnati in 7

This leaves the Angels vs the Braves in the World Series.  If this seems like a huge mismatch to you, well that’s because it is.  The AL will have 6 of baseball’s best 7 or 8 teams and likely 8 in the top 10.  The World Series trophy should be heading back to the American League at the end of this season. 

World Series

Angels over Braves in 6

MLB 2012 preview: American League

With a 162 game season, it becomes extremely difficult to predict where teams are at in September.  Yes, there are some teams we know will be eliminated by tomorrow.  But there are quite a few teams who will be in the playoff picture this season. Let's take a look division by division as I try to pick who will be playing Fall Ball.

AL EAST:

The AL East continued its reputation as MLB’s best division in 2011, and this year nothing should change.  They put 2 teams in the playoffs for another year.  This year they are looking to become the first division in history to put 3 teams in the postseason.  New York, Boston, Tampa, and Toronto are all fighting for 90 wins.  Bad luck for Toronto and Baltimore.  The Jays would likely be a playoff team if they were in the AL Central and Baltimore might win more than 65 games.  Each team has reason to believe that they will win the World Series, but also some large concerns.  New York has 2 of its best pitchers on the DL to start the season.  So their offseason moves to sure up their rotation will have to wait at least until May.  Their lineup continues to get older, and production will continue to decrease.  They have so many stars though that they should be carried into the playoffs.  Look for Cano, Big Tex, and Granderson to have MVP type years again.  But what about A-Rod, DJ, Rivera?  Boston starts with 2 pitchers also on the DL (including their closer) and Carl Crawford still out.  Will they start quicker than last season, or will Bobby Valentine’s discipline get in the way of success?  Tampa is the hot pick of the group this season.  Joe Maddon is the best manager in baseball, and they have a young and dangerous rotation.  If their bullpen by committee can work for another year, and they can get timely hitting from their suspect lineup they will be scary in a postseason series.  Toronto is still getting better with each year, but is this the year they are actually competitive come September?  They will need a big year from Bautista. 

Final Standings Prediction(playoff teams in bold):

New York

Tampa

Boston/Toronto (tied)

Baltimore

AL CENTRAL:

This division is simple, it is the Tigers to win or lose.  There really should not be anyone within 10 games of Detroit this season.  If the race is not over by Labor Day (maybe 4^th of July), something is very wrong.  The Tigers are better, period.  The division will be interesting though.  How will CWS respond without Ozzie? Will the Twins get their power duo back to make any noise?  How will the Indians respond to their surprise season last year?  And will the Royals finally put their high draft picks on the field, and will it result in wins?  I am actually kind of pulling for the Royals to have a break out year and compete for a wild card position.  For some reason I like the way they have built their organization.  They don’t have the pitching or the dominant lineup top to bottom that Detroit has, but they could make some noise in the below average division. 

Final Standings Prediction:

Detroit

Kansas City

Minnesota

Chicago

Cleveland

AL WEST:

The Rangers and Angels are becoming one of the best rivalries in all of baseball.  When the Angels stole CJ Wilson in the offseason, Texas went out and signed Yu Darvish.  The Rangers return one of the best lineups again, and the Angels want to counter that with adding the best hitter of our generation (Albert Pujols).  California Angels of Anaheim Los Angeles twice removed will have a scary lineup as well.  They also will have one of the best rotations in the AL.  If Yu Darvish comes in and has electric stuff, the Rangers could once again win this division.  I just cant see them beating the Angels though.  This team is built to win now, not just win the division but win in the playoffs.  The Rangers will likely falter down the stretch against the better Angels team, but if they can reach the post season again I think they can be extremely dangerous.  They still have the best bullpen in baseball, and as we saw last year it is very important in October.

Final Standings Prediction:

California

Texas

Oakland

Seattle

AL Playoff Picture:

If the Rays and Rangers meet in a 1 game playoff to determine who will play the best team in the AL (likely the Angels), the edge here has to go to Texas.  If the starter can get to the 5^th inning with the lead, the game is basically over. 

ALDS:

Angels over Texas in 5

Detroit over NYY in 4

ALCS:

Angels over Detroit in 7 (as much as I want the Tigers to win the WS, I just don’t see it happening this year.. and the home field advantage in this series makes the difference)

Detroit Tigers Preview

With one day to go before the Tigers kick off their 2012 campaign, I think it is time for some season predictions. 

This off season has been one that most Detroit fans are not used to.  Instead of getting mad because the 4 letter network has a minor addiction to the Yankees and Red Sox, this season Detroit has been featured more than ever.  The old English D is the talk of the baseball world.  With the addition of Prince Fielder, now analysts care and take the time to break down the roster weaknesses.  Everyone has shared their opinion, and finally the Tigers can just play and leave it on the field. 

The Tigers are the hot pick to win the AL Central and make the World Series.  I think this should be the expectation from us, Detroit fans, but it also seems like high expectations from analysts and “baseball experts.”  Nobody has seen this team play a regular season game together yet.  Boston had similar expectations last year, and they didn’t even make the playoffs.  The difference between Detroiters and experts is view point.  For us small time fans, we are the people who fill the stands and will be forced to pay the higher prices of beer and food.  We are the ones who will experience the most disappointment in Tiger’s failures.  We have the much bigger investment in this team, and now the only thing that will make this HUGE Prince Fielder deal (and the side effects) worth it, is at least a World Series berth.  Improvement will be the only measure of success.  While I will be disappointed if the Tigers do not win a championship, all I can ask for is improvement from last year’s AL Championship berth.  Detroit can have a gold glover, 3 Silver Sluggers, a Cy Young winner, and an MVP this season, but if they are not playing in the Fall Classic something went wrong along the way.  That something might end up being Prince’s pick up altogether.  I don’t think that will be the case (at least this year). 

The Tigers play in the worst division in the AL, and maybe of all MLB.  For another year, likely the 2^nd place team will end up 10+ games behind the Wild Card winner.  However, the schedule for Detroit this year is by far the most difficult than any other AL Central team.  Since the Tigers are trying to become a large market team, it comes with playing the best teams more often.  They have to play extra series against Tampa, New York, Texas and the Angels. These are the best teams remaining in the entire league.  I think the Central is bad enough, and we will have to play division rivals so much, that it will be enough to get us the AL Central championship again.  The Tigers roster on paper is head and shoulders better than the next closest team in the in the Central. 

I think Detroit should be able to get to 95+ wins, which will be good enough to win the division and should be good enough to get the 2^nd seed in the American League. 

Some individual predictions for current Tigers:

I think it will be very difficult for JV to repeat his incredible season from 2011.  I do think however he is over the hump of being an average pitcher with electric stuff.  JV should be in the running for another Cy Young this year, but his stats will be closer to the pack.  I think JV can get to 19 wins and have a 3.00 ERA.

It is hard not to imagine how incredible this team would be offensively if Victor was healthy.  He was the best #5 hitter in the league last season.  The 2012 version of the Tigers will be very scary to deal with still.  I think Miguel will have his standard year, I mean seriously how much more can he improve over last season (even with Prince hitting behind him).  He will likely have more hits than last season by batting one spot higher, but a 330 batting average has become expected out of the big fella.  Personally I think the 2 batters that have the biggest improvement from last will be the Tigers top of the order.  Both Jackson and Boesch should see a lot more strikes this season because pitchers will not want to pitch to Miggy or Fielder with runners on base.  I think Jackson needs to bat at least .270 this season to justify being the future lead off guy with the Tigers (and this number shouldn’t be unrealistic).  Boesch could become a star this season at the plate.  If he stays healthy all season, I don’t see why 25 home runs is out of the question, along with a .280 batting average.  The Tigers will be very tough to beat in a series if the top of the order contributes this much. 

One more prediction that I hope happens is… Brandon Inge not on the post season roster, and after June I will never have to see him in a Tiger’s uniform again. 

Go Tigers!