Class D

Class D:

Fulton vs Muskegon Catholic Central

The Class D runner up last season, Fulton, just be the defending champion Wyoming Tri-Unity on Monday.  They become the new favorite with their physical defense.  I think Fulton gets another step closer to being number 1.

Bellaire vs Leland

Bellaire is better and has played better competition. Leland is just happy to be in the finals. Bellaire keeps going.

Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary vs Akron-Fairgrove

In the battle of long school names, SMLS is a top 5 team for most of the season.  They will get rid of A-F.

Detroit Westside Christian vs Southfield Christian

This might be the best Class D game tonight.  Westside Christian has been here before, but Southfield is led by the fighting Lindsay Hunters (Jr, III, and IV). They also have 2 other senior guards thatare tough to stop.  I think this one will be close, but I want to see SC make the finals, so I will pick them to advance.

Allen Park Inter-City Baptist vs Lansing Christian

Another tough matchup.  Lansing Christian has a great girls program, and the guys is starting to catch up slowly.  Allen Park is led by a sophomore that LC will probably struggle to stop.  Somehow though I think Lansing Christian gets the big W.

Climax-Scotts vs Marcellus Howardsville Christian

MHC was always a joke when I was in school, apparently they are less of one now.  C-S has two 6’6” and taller guys.  They are even getting some looks from D1.  This height will be tough to stop for most Class D teams, including HC.  Climax-Scotts moving on.

Munising vs Carney-Nadeau

Both teams are standard yooper teams.  Press and shoot 3s.  Don’t shoot well, keep flinging them up there. Carney-Nadeau was a game away from the semis last year, and I think they move on again this season.

Posen vs Pellston

Pellston has the Class D player of all time likely in Chris Haas.  He is the MHSAA active scoring leader, and if he wins a few more games he will likely break the record.  His teams have been pretty bad over the past 4 years, but this year they are primed to make it down to the Brez.  Lets just hope he can shoot the into the finals so more people can see how good this future Bucknell Bison is.  

Class C

Class C:

Detroit Consortium vs Flint Beecher

A matchup of the best two teams in the class.  Consortium has more talent and depth from top to bottom of its roster.  The run to the Brez will double the amount of Class C teams DC has played this season.  Flint Beecher has do everything junior PG Monte Morris, who has already led his Bucs to 2 straight semi-finals. One of these years he will break through and make the finals so more people can see this walking triple double. Tonight is not one of them.  Consortium has been on a mission this year after shooting 15% in the semi-finals and losing to a worse team. DC in a close one, but will be pulling for Money Monte.

River Rouge vs Ypsilanti Willow Run

Can River Rouge get back to their UCLA type dominance from back in the day? Well they have to replicate this year’s success over the next 15 or so. River Rouge moves a step closer to getting back to the final weekend.

Pewamo-Westphalia vs Albion

Albion has been a decent team for the past 15 years in Class C, occasionally making a deep run in the post season. They usually are very athletic, and have at least one 6’6”+ guy.  Pewama hasn’t lost yet this season.  They play in the best small school conference in the state that could produce 2 finalists again. I think PW gets by the more athletic Albion in a close one.

Schoolcraft vs Bloomingdale

The Eagles are the defending champions with double double machine Luke Ryskamp who nobody in Class C can stop.  Bloomingdale is Gobles’ arch enemy. Who do you think I got? Eagles roll.

Negaunee vs Iron Mountain

In a rematch game, I think the regular season winner is better and will win again.  The Negaunee Miners move closer to the Brez again… Tim Gould should be happy. J

Traverse City St. Francis vs Clare

This might be the 2^nd best game of the entire night, in a game where nobody has heard of either of these teams.  TCSF has a hall of fame coach that moved from Charlevoix down the road a few miles.  In just 3 years he has turned TCSF into a school that cares about basketball as much as football, and they are quickly becoming a power.  These two teams will have the best two post players in the entire tournament.  Both big bodies and 6’8” or taller.  I think coach Haske knows how to get to the Brez and will lead the Crusaders a step closer.

Saginaw Nouvel vs New Haven

Saginaw Nouvel got the benefit of the bracket this year by not having to go through Beecher until the finals.  They are a top 10 team with some size.  They will be too much for New Haven to handle as Bohnoff continues his postseason dominance.

Shelby vs Montague

Shelby has already smoked Montague twice this season.  As it is hard to beat a team three times, Montague will likely keep it a little closer.  But ultimately more talent will win.

Class B

Class B:

Grand Rapids Christian vs Godwin Heights

One of the multiple Class B toss ups.  Heights might be the more athletic team here, but I think GRC will find a way to move on.

Otsego vs Stevensville-Lakeshore

This one will depend on which Jared Klein (Western commit) shows up.  He can drop 40, or get locked down by Stevensville’s tough defense.  Stevensville has been tested a lot more than Otsego this season, so they are the favorites here.  But I hold a grudge from getting beat in baseball every summer by SL, and Otsego is a Gobles neighbor.  So this is my homer pick… Roll Bulldogs.

Sault St. Marie vs Cadillac

Cadillac plays much tougher competition than the yoopers.  SSM will have to heat up from 3 to win this game, or even hang with Cadillac. 

Sparta vs Muskegon Heights

Please. Heights home court seems to be the Brez in March.  It helps that their half of the bracket always seems to be the weakest. But that doesn’t stop them from hanging 80 on Sparta.

Goodrich vs Corunna

The basketball season has been good for Goodrich.  The girls team is one of the best in the state and headed to semi-finals this weekend, and the boys will have their shot of getting there next Tuesday in the QF after beating Corunna.

Detroit Country Day vs Harper Woods Chandler Park

Luckily these picks are not my job, because DCC is by far the better team in this matchup.  They have more size and a lot more depth (as usual from the school with the most McDonalds All-Americans ever).  But Harper Woods has Derick Walton (2013 U-M recruit).  He is capable of carrying this team anywhere.  While DCC has size, they are a little weak in their back court.  I am going with HWCP to pull the upset. Because of Walton, and because I cant stand to see their homely looking moron of a coach in the Brez again.

Dearborn Robichaud vs Detroit Douglass

Another PSL team in the regional finals.  It is hard to pick againt this conference this time of year.  Robichaud has 2 guys that can stop Douglass, but they have underperformed all season, why would they stop tonight. Douglass wins.

Lansing Sexton vs Marshall

Another please. Top 10 team in the country vs…  definition of average. Sexton wins easily, again.  

Regional Final Previews and Predictions: Class A

I cannot focus any longer on work, knowing that the High School Regional Finals are tonight and the NCAA tournament gets into full swing tomorrow at 12:15.  So I will take my stab at the Regional Final predictions for each game.

Class A:

Grand Haven vs Rockford

These two teams don’t like each other much, mainly because GH is constantly getting beat by the Rams in most sports.  Both teams had down years compared to their past few.  They are familiar with each other and are very similar.  I will just go with the usual Rockford to win (partly to upset my wife too J )

Okemos vs Ottawa Hills

Okemos had a down year, but they are in the toughest conference in the state.  They lost to Eastern twice this season, but beat them when it mattered most, last Friday in the District Finals.  They are led by all everything 6’6” senior Chris Harrison-Docks. I think they will keep their momentum going against a better team.

Detroit Pershing vs Detroit King

King is coming off of an emotional win on Monday, where Warren DLS students had a few spiteful chants after they were getting dominated.  They are led by future Wolverine footballer, Dennis Norfleet.  He might be having the best season of any senior since the beginning of February (convenient that its when he got his scholarship from Big Blue).  Pershing is a top 5 team in the state, and led by 3 D1 guards in the back court.  But the last time these teams met, King beat Pershing in the PSL championship game.  I think Pershing will eke out revenge tonight, but I would love to see Norfleet take his team to the Bres for the finals.

Romulus vs Gibralter Carlson

Ha, please.  Game over. Even though Romulus chokes in the post season every year since Ron Coleman led them to a semi-final appearance, I think they will advance at least one more game. Carlson is no match for the loaded Romulus roster. 

Detroit CC vs Orchard Lake SM

Two Catholic league schools meeting again, I think DCC will take care of business again with their size up front.

Saginaw vs Flint Northwestern

This was going to be a great matchup of Matt Costello (Bay City Western) against Saginaw for the last time, but they had to go out and get dominated by NW.  Flint NW has been flying under the radar all season, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see an upset… but Saginaw is too much at home.  They have been on a mission all season.

Lake Orion vs Waterford Mott

Mott is led by undersized post DaVonte Daniel which average teams cannot stop, I don’t think Lake Orion will be any different. Although they get to play this game at home.  I see Mott getting past this game.

Detroit Denby vs L’Anse Creuse North

Denby was not one of the best teams in the PSL this season, but it doesn’t mean they aren’t better than most teams in the state.  Denby moves on, and has a good shot at a semi final berth.

Preview: NCAA Tourney edition

So I am just going to move right past any analysis from the OSU game on Saturday.  Mainly because we got curb stomped by the Bucknuts, I hope the terribleness was a result of being tired from the night before, but OSU seemed to have the game plan perfect against us the 3^rd time around.  It resulted in a better team playing one of their most complete games of the season, it just was not fun to watch especially on national TV.  After the game I realized how hard it is to win the BTT.  Even if you get a first round bye, you have to play 3 games in 3 days against some of the best teams in the nation.  The first one will usually be against a desperate team that has to win the tourney to make the Big Dance, then you get 2 likely top 12 teams back to back.  And unlike the Maui tournament early this season, these games are against fellow B1G teams that play B1G style basketball: physical.  So now as Michigan fans we have to hope that we can continue our streak of not losing 2 games in a row. 

Onto the NCAA tournament preview.  The complete domination at the hands of Matta’s Meatheads likely dropped Michigan from the 3 line to a 4 seed.  At first this was disappointing, but after looking at our matchup I will not trade it with Georgetown.  The preview for the Ohio game is coming, but this is more for just a bracket overview.

Kentucky is the overall favorite to roll through the bracket and cut down the nets.  As much as I hate this idea, there is no team nearly as good as the Wildcats.  Syracuse will be without Fab Melo for the entire tournament, which makes them a candidate to get upset by Kansas St in the 2^nd round.  UNC had been playing well until Henson got hurt, and nobody knows really how serious it is or if he will come back at 100%.  Michigan St is a very solid team that I think could roll into New Orleans, but they are matched up against the toughest 8 seed in the entire bracket.  I think I would rather play Temple than Memphis at this point in the season.  I don’t think this is a year where all 1 seeds make the Final Four, but I could be wrong again.

I was surprised to see Detroit get a 15 seed, I was thinking more of a 13 or 14.  They might be the most talented 15 seed ever in the NCAA tournament.  They also have 1 more McDonald’s All-Americans on the roster than Kansas does.  It would be awesome to see a local team, led by a local player I watched since his junior year in high school have a good appearance in the NCAA tournament.  They got a tough draw with Kansas though, their height will be too much for the guard oriented Titans. I actually think Michigan would struggle a bit with Detroit this season because they are extremely athletic and seem to play better depending on the competition and brightness of the lights.  I am not picking this upset, but I will be rooting hard for it to happen.

Some of the upsets that I think are more likely:

1.       LBSU over New Mexico, it doesn’t seem fair that this is another 5-12 matchup of 2 mid major teams, both are good enough to make a Sweet 16 run.  I have watched LBSU a few times this season and have been very impressed.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see The Beach keep dancing.

2.       Cal over Temple, another 5-12 matchup.  Mainly because I think everyone is overlooking Cal and I just don’t think Temple is all that consistent. Doesn’t mean Temple cant win and then come back and beat Michigan by 20, but just my opinion of them.

3.       Montana over Wisconsin.  In this 4-13 matchup, it will depend on what Badger team shows up. If it is the one that dominated IU in the BTT then Wisconsin could make an Elite 8 run, if it is the one that showed up against MSU the next afternoon then they could have an early exit. 

4.       Belmont over Georgetown.  GU has lost to a double digit seed the past 3 seasons in the NCAA tournament.  I think this streak has a good chance of continuing with the high scoring Belmont. I think the tempo might cause the Hoyas some problems, since they struggle to score at times. 

5.       In the South regional, there are a few different games that could happen, but none that I expect.  VCU is playing their best basketball of the season, but get matched up against the best mid-major this year in Wichita St.  The Rams can pull off the upset with some good 3 point shooting, but the Shockers should have too much down low presence to allow this.  IU might struggle without Verdell Jones, but I think Zeller and Watford are just too good.  Xavier could upset Notre Dame (since Mike Brey is one of the top under-performing coaches in the NCAA tourney), but a 10 over a 7 isnt really an upset right?

I don’t really know of any “locks” to make a Final Four because anything can happen in the NCAA tournament, but I do have some bold predictions with teams that will not make the Final Four:

1.       Syracuse, without Fab Melo and their already lack of defensive rebounding, is primed to lose early.  Either to KSU or Vandy.

2.       Florida St, in the same bracket, everyone is so high on the Seminoles right now, but I just don’t like them. I have no reason for my prediction of them losing before the last 4, except that I would be surprised if they put 4 solid games together to make a run.

3.       Missouri, now this is one that I wouldn’t mind being wrong about, but I really don’t like their matchup against MSU.  They might be the only 1 seed in the tourney that I wouldn’t pick Mizzou to beat. They will have a very tough time locking up the paint against the Spartans.  Of course, if MSU loses early, I will be rooting for the Tigers to advance.. they also become the heavy favorites.

4.       Georgetown, now this isn’t really a crazy prediction since they are the 3 seed, but I just don’t think the Hoyas are that good. They struggle to score, and if an athletic team can get Sims into foul trouble they really struggle to score and defend the paint. I could see them losing in the first weekend.

5.       Finally, Duke.  For all of the talent that Coach K has had over the years, this year is not one of them.  They have big bodies that just fill up space.  They are completely guard oriented, and if they shoot 9-30 from 3 in a game they could go down early.  If a team can limit Austin River’s driving abilities, this team doesn’t know where to go to generate points. Xavier has a senior guard that could potentially lock Rivers down a bit, but if Duke advances to the 2^nd weekend I cant see them beating Baylor and then either IU, WSU, or Kentucky in one weekend.

These are just some of my thoughts as I look at my bracket, what about you?

OSU preview

As I watch MSU dominate Wisconsin yet again this season, I will give a quick update as we take on the Bucknuts for the 3rd time. 

OSU hasnt changed much since the last time we met in Ann Arbor, the main difference is we are playing on a neutral court.  This will be the rubber match for the season series, and it will also be the 3rd year in a row that we play in the BTT.  Michigan has hung tough the last two post season meetings even though they have been outmatched in both. 

OSU has 4 guys that got B1G recognition, Sullinger (1st team), Buford (2nd team), Thomas (2nd team), and Craft (the most ridiculous B1G defensive player of the year).  At least the pumpkin head coach didnt win COY. 

Offensively, OSU has one goal, get Sullinger the ball early and often and let him decide what to do.  In some instanes he forces way too many shots (MSU first game, and the first half of their 2nd meeting), but in others when his teammates are making shots, he feels very confident passing out of the double team to find open corner 3s.  Craft usually doesnt contribute much in terms of points but he facilitates the offense.  Buford has been as streaky as Hardaway lately, but when he is scoring he can take over the game. Sullinger is usually a high volume scorer that will inevitably take multiple bad shots.  Thomas is extremely athletic, and was the other reason they hung in the game in Ann Arbor. He also is a very streaky scorer and we will find out early if it is an on or off day.  Lenzelle Smith has entered the starting lineup, he dominated the Wolverines the first matchup. He is a great offensive rebound and finisher, but also a very streaky shooter. With the soft rims at Indy so far, it would be a good guess that at least 2 out of these 3 guys will have a good shooting night.  The key here is what it is in every other Michigan game, they can play the best defense possible for 35 seconds, but if they force teams into bad shots they have to be able to control the defensive glass.

Defensively OSU sticks to the man to man, they very rarely drop into a zone. They funnel everything into Sullinger where he defends the hoop.  Craft has been awful at stopping Burke in the first two matchups this season, so hopefully Burke takes it to the defensive player of the year again.  Buford will try to slow down Hardaway, but in reality Hardaway will only slow down himself.  If he is shooting the ball confidently, nobody on this team can stop him.  Smith will be matched up with Douglass.  He loses his assigment quite a bit which will allow Stu with some open looks from deep. Stu will have to have a good shooting night for Michigan to win.  Thomas will likely be assigned to Novak. This is one of these matchups where if Novak can keep the point differential to 10 points in favor of Thomas, Michigan will be in a good position to win. 

Michigan will use the pick and roll to get Burke attacking Sullinger.  Depending on the refs, this could get the cry baby in foul trouble or just make it very difficult for Trey.  Hopefully the rims continue to be forgiving in these games so Michigan can shoot close to 40% from behind the long line, and the Wolverines will have to knock down their opportunities from the foul line. Offensive rebounds will come at a premium, so any that Michigan can steal will need to be converted into points.

The bottom line is that OSU is more talented than Michigan, period.  The Wolverines will have to play a better game than yesterday to pull off their 2nd win against this legitimate top 10 team.  They will have to win the turnover battle, stay out of foul trouble, and limit offensive rebounds. A win today should secure Michigan as one of the top 3 seeds in the tournament.  I think the extra 5 minutes of game play yesterday will come back to hurt us as a primary jump shooting team, and OSU played very confidently against Purdue yesterday.  I think Michigan will hang close early, but will likely fade and allow OSU to go on a big run at some point.  I dont know if we will have enough energy to overcome it. Prediction: OSU 70 Michigan 61

Let's hope I am wrong and we win by 20. Go Blue!

Minnesota Recap

Well Michigan proved yesterday that they are capable of losing to anyone in the nation by coming out slow with no energy. Hopefully today they can correct some of the mistakes and prove that they can beat any team in the nation on a neutral floor.

The first half was one to quickly forget. Burke was the only player that seemed interested in playing.  Novak and Stu forgot the game started, Hardaway was not aggressive in asking for the ball, and Morgan of course doesnt get looked at down low. Luckily we were only down 3 to start the 2nd half. Couldnt play much worse, and yet only down 1 possession. Michigan's major struggles with rebounding continued and they gave up too many offensive rebounds to an average rebounding team. 

The second started with a decent run for the Maize and Blue, and they felt in control for most of the half. Maybe the team felt that as well, but they were never able to put the Gophers away.  Until at the end when Michigan trailed by 7 late in the game, Michigan knocked down a couple of huge 3s to put the game into OT. The game should have never gotten that far though, we missed 8 free throws, didnt rebound well, and missed some easy shots at the end of the game. Lucky for us, the team seems to play better the longer the game goes on. In OT shots started falling and eventually Michigan pulled out the win.

Burke had his best game of his young career with 30 points. He had a few amazing plays that Gus Johnson didnt notice.  One where he dribbled between his legs to inside the 3 point line, then spun away from Hollins to the baseline and then went right into their center, held in the air and put the ball off the glass into the hoop.  I guess the announcers were too busy raving over Hollins to notice.  Hardaway came out aggressively in the 2nd half and made a few tough shots in a row, we are a very difficult team to beat when he scored efficiently. Michigan only ended up shooting 15 threes yesterday, which is a huge improvement over 30. 

Defensively, Michigan gave up too many open looks again.  They need to shore up their man to man defense for today because Morgan will be forced to contain Sullinger again. Michigan will likely struggle getting into a 2-3 zone against the Buckeyes. From being a very tough defensive team for some stretches to being below average during others, Michigan has to get more consistent for entire halves and games like they were at differet times this season. 

It was a good win for Michigan to get back into the semifinals for the 2nd year in a row.  Hopefully the extra 5 minutes of play doesnt come back to hurt us today, but regardless today will be another exciting day of basketball!

Go Blue!