B1G Basketball Preview

In lieu of the B1G basketball media day taking place today in Chicago I figured it was the perfect time for my prediction post. According to anything you read, the B1G awards and preseason standings look to be unanimous.  Hopefully mine will break the trend a bit. 

Preseason Standings:

1.       Michigan

2.       Michigan State

3.       Ohio State

4.       Wisconsin

5.       Iowa

6.       Indiana

7.       Illinois

8.       Minnesota

9.       Purdue

10.   Penn State

11.   Northwestern

12.   Nebraska

All-B1G First Team

Guard: Tim Frazier, Penn State

Guard: Gary Harris, Michigan State

Forward: Glenn Robinson III, Michigan

Forward: Mitch McGary, Michigan

Forward: Adreian Payne, Michigan State

B1G POY

Glenn Robinson III, Michigan

B1G Defensive POY

Shannon Scott, Ohio State

B1G Freshman of the Year

Derrick Walton, Michigan

I know everyone has Michigan State in the top 5 and a lock to win the conference, but the Wolverines are clearly the deepest and most athletic team in the B1G (maybe in the nation).  The Spartans are more known at this point, and we have a pretty good guess of what they can be.  Harris and Payne are two of the best players in America, but they are surrounded by a lot of guys that are more ‘team’ guys. Appling has proven over the past 2 seasons that he just isn’t a natural point guard, and no matter how good he is looking in the preseason I just don’t see a light bulb clicking before his senior campaign.  The other contributors are sophomores Matt Costello, Denzel Valentine, Branden Dawson, and Travis Trice. The sophomore’s ceilings appear to be solid B1G starter level, while Dawson is a proven athletic freak without any refined offensive skills, and Trice is a very good backup point guard that, at times, can initiate the offense better than Appling.  They Spartans will likely have very little contributions from freshmen or redshirt freshman.  The lineup just listed has the makings of an extremely good team. They will be consistent, play physical B1G basketball, struggle with turnovers at times, and play very tough defense.  However, if a team is in the top 5 I expect them to Final Four contenders, and I just cannot see that from this Spartan team.  College basketball is guard oriented right now, and teams without an elite point guard do not make deep tournament runs.  Bringing this back in respect to the B1G, I expect this conference to again be one of the deepest leagues in America, and the top team should be a Final Four contender. Right now the only team that I think that about is the Michigan Wolverines. Yes, they have a lot more question marks than Michigan State, and have to replace a lot more production. However, I believe this coaching staff is the best in the country at allowing players to develop yet still fit into the Beilein offensive scheme.  If Mitch McGary is healthy, which is a very big if, this team looks close to unstoppable. The starting lineup will have McGary and GRIII, both of which are filling up preseason all-conference ballots, All-American lists, and potentially lottery draft picks.  Sophomores Stauskas and LeVert return with added muscle and both have NBA potential.  The front court is rounded out by All-B1G defensive center, Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford both of which would start on most B1G teams. Finally, Michigan welcomes another stellar recruiting class in: Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton will push for starters minutes this season while stretch 4, Mark Donnal could provide an offensive wrinkle off the bench.  That is a scary roster. With Mitch being limited during nonconference play the Wolverine’s record might be underwhelming after their extremely difficult schedule, but they should be ready to go by B1G play and will be an extremely tough team to reckon with.

Week 9 Upset Alert

My upset specials continue to hit, but it hasn’t been all that hard with the past few weeks being filled with surprising outcomes. This week becomes much more difficult as it is the calm before the storm of week 10.  There are few matchups between ranked opponents, and even fewer unranked teams that have the ability to even push for an upset. This week might end up looking similar to last week.

Tennessee vs #9 Missouri

I am going to keep the Tigers on upset watch.  I do not think this is a top ten team, and they could be in for a hangover game after blowing a sure win against South Carolina last week. Maty Mauk will still be the quarterback Saturday as James Franklin is expected to miss another week.  It might be unfair to stake this claim to a redshirt freshman, but Mauk has shown that he cannot beat a team with his arm.  At this point he can only manage it and rely on the running game and stellar defense. If Tennessee can force a few turnovers from the young gun, the Volunteers could be primed to pull off their second top ten upset of the season.  It should be a low scoring game, but Missouri needs to win out to have a chance to meet Alabama in Atlanta. 

#18 Oklahoma State vs #15 Texas Tech

Like Missouri, I am going to keep the Red Raiders on upset watch.  They lost a very winnable game against Oklahoma last week, and now have to face the high power, but struggling, Cowboy offense.  If Texas Tech can turn the tide on their turnover problems, the Red Raiders should stay in the Big12 title race.  However, I think QB Webb or Mayfield continue on the interception train which will help the Cowboy quarterback gain confidence on the road. Running back Desmond Roland could be the difference in this game.

#11 Auburn vs Arkansas

The Tigers have shot up the polls after the decimation in front of them the past few weeks. On a side note, could you imagine how high Michigan would be now if they managed to escape Happy Valley? Ugh, I cannot think about too much without getting upset all over again. Anyways, the Auburn players seem to have bought into Gus Malzahn’s high tempo offense. They have put up 600+ yards over the past 3 games, and currently look like the only team left on Alabama’s schedule that could really test them.  Their defense is still a big question mark, and could struggle to stop Arkansas’ running attack.  However, the Razorbacks have lost 5 straight games, and have looked uninterested in their last two.  Most likely, Auburn will continue its torrid offensive pace and run away with this game, but playing in Fayetteville maybe the Arkansas players will rally around the Malzahn/ Bielema feud.

The most publicized game of the week features somehow top ten Miami and national title contender Florida State. I have watched Miami play a few games this season, and just have not been impressed with the Canes so far. Again, the what-ifs for Michigan’s season. Florida State looks legitimate for the first time under Jimbo Fisher. This season is shaping up to be the perfect reason why college football needs a playoff system.  I just think the Seminoles have way too much firepower, and should run away with another dominating easy victory. Miami is supposed to be a top ten team, but they are a 22 point underdog on the road. It is another reason why it is almost impossible to really rank any team after the top 6, because I think Michigan has a higher ceiling than Miami.

B1G Week 9 Recap

The Big Ten conference is just flat out bad this season. If you remove Ohio State, who finally looked like they belonged in the top 5, the remaining 11 teams could barely fight their way out of a wet paper bag.  I guess the Legends Division is still up for grabs, but even there Michigan State is clearly in the driver’s seat (even before the game with Michigan).

Good surprise:
Michigan State’s offense is getting healthy at the right time, which is exactly what every Michigan fan feared in September. The Spartans still haven’t scored over 30 points on an actual defense (and that’s if you count Iowa), but they managed to dominate the hapless Illini on Saturday. Connor Cook looks like an average quarterback when he feels comfortable in the pocket. In this one he finished 15-16, and the Illini were never close to pressuring him.  If the Spartan offensive line can give Cook that much time in their remaining games, MSU will be headed to Indianapolis and possibly even a BCS game.

Minnesota looked dead in the water after back to back blowout losses to Iowa and Michigan, but have since knocked off Northwestern and Nebraska to put themselves back in the mix for the Legends Division.  The Gophers racked up 430 yards of offense against the Huskers, including some crucial play action passes. The offense still has a long ways to go if they will push the Michigan State defense, but it is quite the improvement to be bowl eligible in Week 9. 

I have to recognize Ohio State as a team.  Most people thought Penn State would be able to compete a little bit in Columbus, but the Buckeyes dominated in every facet of the game. OSU pushed the tempo on offense, mixing run and pass plays, which tested the Nittany Lions’ lack of depth. On defense the front 4 were constantly in the backfield, causing terrible decisions and throws from the overwhelmed freshman quarterback. This was by far the most impressive win in the Urban Meyer era, and maybe they realize that even if they go undefeated again OSU will still be behind Alabama, Florida State, and Oregon so they need some style points.

Bad surprise:
I have to start with Penn State here. According to most PSU fans, they consider OSU the biggest rivalry on their schedule yet the team should have just stayed in Happy Valley. It was surprising to see a Bill O’Brien team so unprepared and overwhelmed. The depth issues really hurt the defense, and Hackenberg turning the ball over certainly didn’t help.  This game just made me even more upset at the Michigan/ Penn State outcome.

The Nebraska defense has made a living in the bad surprise department this season, but Saturday might be a new low. Minnesota cannot throw the ball, and the Gophers don’t try either. Everyone on both sides of the ball knows they want to run power or zone option. Nebraska knew this, yet still yielded 5 yards per carry for the entire game. I don’t know what they were doing all week to prepare for this game. The Husker front seven continually got blown off the ball, and they missed tackles on top of that. At this point the two best teams in the Legends Division are Michigan State and Michigan, and one of them already has a loss before the tough November schedule.

Week 9 conference rankings:
1. Ohio State (no change)
2. Wisconsin (no change)
3. Michigan State (no change)
4. Michigan (up 4)
5. Penn State (up 1)
6. Nebraska (down 1)
7. Indiana (up 3)
8. Iowa (up 1)
9. Minnesota (up 2)
10. Northwestern (down 6)
11. Illinois (down 1)
12. Purdue (no change)

Michigan Basketball: 2013-2014 Preview

My how far Coach Beilein has brought this program in just a few short years.  The football team only has one loss and still controls their destiny for a Rose Bowl appearance, but in my book today officially marks the start of the basketball season.  The cagers open their season with an exhibition game against Concordia tonight.  This season has the most hype and expectations since the Fab Five’s sophomore season, but with this coaching staff at the helm I can guarantee that it will be another fun ride.

Last year in my basketball preview I wrote: “So far this season one thing is very clear to me, this is the deepest team that Coach Beilein has had in Ann Arbor (possibly ever) and this is the most athletic team that I can truly remember donning the maize and blue.” This statement makes sense when referring to the national runner-up.  But it is also a statement that can be made for Team 97. Yes, Michigan lost 5 seniors and two first round draft picks including the National Player of the Year. Most programs would need at least one year to reload and recover from that loss of experience and talent, but the Michigan program this year is not one of them.  3 top ranked freshmen enter the fold along with the 6 returning old men sophomores and the upperclassmen front court. 

Let’s preview each position group (bigs, wings, and point guards).  The Wolverines do not lose a scholarship player from the front court, and return pre-season All American Mitch McGary, All-B1G defensive center Jordan Morgan, bulked up Jon Horford, under-the-radar Max Biefeldt, and add in prototypical stretch 4 Mark Donnal. Just a few short years ago most people thought Coach Beilein could not recruit big men that would allow Michigan to compete for B1G championships, and now they have 5 that will push for minutes.  Of course the headliner is McGary, who blew up last year in the NCAA tournament run and turned down a likely top 10 draft pick to play for Team one last year and compete for championships with teammates and friends. When healthy, big number 4 is the most versatile big man in the conference. He can dominate in any phase of the game (scoring for the low or high post, being the roll man in Beilein’s complex pick and roll offense, rebounding, passing, defending).  The problem is his chronic back issue flared up in August which has kept McGary from practicing since.  He and the coaches seem in high spirits about this season even with their caution, but any 6’10” guy with a chronic back problem is cause for concern.  It is likely that McGary will be kept out of most non-conference games, but should be ready for the B1G season.  This will be bad news for the Iowa State, Puerto Rico Tournament, Arizona, and Duke games, but this team wants to be full strength in March and April, not November and December. Jordan Morgan is back for his 5^th year and is fully recovered from his gruesome high ankle sprain last year. He has slimmed down to 240 pounds which should help his already above average quickness and athleticism. Morgan is a known asset.  He is a defensive stopper and good rebounder for his size with limited shooting range and average hands.  While he will never be a 10 ppg player, his athleticism will be a key aspect of Coach Beilein’s motion offense. Jon Horford has bulked up to 250 pounds, and brings a little different skillset than Jordan Morgan.  Horford is the best shot blocker on the team, and has extended his shooting range to 15 feet.  While he is bigger than Morgan, it does not translate in his defensive tendencies. He relies on his shot blocking abilities too much, instead of technique and position like Jordan. This translates into an astronomical foul rate. If Horford can lower this he will be very tough to keep off the floor. Biefeldt is likely the lone man out. He is a power forward, but at only 6’7” struggles defensively against bigger B1G opponents. He has built himself into more of a stretch four, with a knack for offensive rebounding, but the depth on this team will keep Max off the floor.  That leaves the forgotten incoming freshman Mark Donnal.  Most assume he will redshirt this season, but I think he will play a role for this team. Donnal is a perfect stretch four forward for Coach Beilein’s system. With range out to the three point line and McGary’s injury, Donnal should jump Biefeldt on the depth chart and push for time.  While LeVert forced his way onto the floor because of his defensive abilities last season, Donnal should bring a very different wrinkle to the offensive side that should give him 4-6 minutes a game.

With a healthy McGary the frontcourt depth is very good, but the bodies at the wing are just absurd.  Michigan returns future lottery pick Glen Robinson III, the best shooter in the country Nik Stauskas, the most improved player on the team Caris LeVert, and bring in Indiana Mr. Basketball Zak Irvin.  Each of these players are 6’6”+ and around 200 pounds, and will allow Coach Beilein to use his inner mad scientist more. GRIII added 15 pounds of muscle and increased his already impressive vertical.  He was one of the most efficient players on the country last season, but struggled to manufacture his own offense. He was unstoppable in the open court, but when most B1G teams bog down the tempo he became hesitant or invisible.  Fast forward to this season, and GRIII is the team’s assist leader in practice. Not only has he become unguardable with the ball in his hands, but he is creating offense for teammates. His body type is exactly what the NBA is looking for in a wing, and if he can assert himself more on the offensive end he could be in contention for NPOY. Nik Stauskas also bulked up in the offseason which will allow him to be more durable over the course of the long college season. Expect his non-conference success to carry into the B1G season this year. Nik was already very good in the pick and roll offense because of the numerous ways he could make a defense pay, but with the added weight he will be able to finish at the rim more consistently which just makes him even more difficult to guard. Caris LeVert continues to grow, and is now up 3 inches and 40 pounds since he arrived on campus last summer. He is unanimously the most improved player on the team. His defensive abilities are well known, but he has added to his offensive arsenal. Apparently he is the player that is the toughest to stay in front of during one on one drills. Coach Beilein will be trying many different lineups to make sure Caris can see the floor much more than last season. Incoming phenom Zak Irvin has a similar offensive skillset as a freshman Tim Hardaway. He is a knockout jump shooter with athleticism to attack the rim, but is still uncertain of his abilities. However, on top of being a catch and shoot guy, Irvin has been heralded as a lock down defensive stopper. If this can translate to the college game, Irvin will take the bulk of Tim Hardaway’s minutes.

Last but not least, the position group that is tasked to replace Trey Burke. The Wolverines return Ann Arbor’s most eligible bachelor Spike Albrecht and star incoming freshman Derrick Walton. Spike is an extension of the coaching staff on the floor. He values the basketball, and does a great job of setting up teammates while having the ability to knock down the open shot when presented. If you remember the 2008-2009 team with David Merritt and C.J. Lee running the point, Albrecht brings a similar skillset. However, he struggles to create offense for himself. Michigan can put enough scoring threats around him that the offense will not be at a stalemate, but if the high ceiling is to be tapped into Derrick Walton will need to assume the point guard role by the postseason.  I was able to watch both Trey Burke and Walton in high school, and at graduation Walton was closer to becoming a college ready point guard than Burke. Of course you cannot account for Trey’s work ethic or untouchable confidence. The point guard in waiting is a great facilitator, decent defender, and can take over the game offensively if needed. I doubt we will see his killer instinct as much as Burke’s because it is not needed on this team.  On top of these two point guard options, Coach Beilein has been talking about a lineup where Stauskas or LeVert can act as the lead guard to initiate the offense. The Wolverines could field a lineup of 4 6’6”+ players along with a big.  Could you imagine a zone defense with that length?  It is a Syracuse-like roster that has more versatility.

Overall this team has a chance to be even better than last year’s. The nonconference schedule is extremely difficult, and the Wolverines likely will not be undefeated heading into the conference season.  The B1G will again be one of the nation’s best conferences, but it shouldn’t be as loaded as last season. Assuming Mitch’s injury heals, and he can play at or near 100% by the conference season, I think a realistic expectation is to win the B1G and secure another favored seed (1-4).  There are some questions that will need to be answered along the way, but I think we can sit back and just enjoy the ride this coaching staff will take us on.

Week 8: Indiana Recap

Team 134 bounced back with a close but not nerve-wracking game against Indiana.  Yes, after the fumbled snap on the 5 yard line I felt like I just got kicked in the goods… or like this:

 

But the outcome of the game never felt in doubt for more than a few minutes because Al Borges remembered he has special players on offense, and allowed those athletes to make plays in space.  Devin Gardner looked more like the Notre Dame Garnder than Connecticut, Fitz Toussaint looked like he was running against CMU, and Jeremy Gallon is still wide open.  Yes the opponent caveats apply: Indiana has the worst defense that Michigan will face this year, but the offense did not play down to the competition for one of the few times this season.  As I mentioned in last week’s preview, this Wolverine team is not a smash mouth team yet but they have a lot of weapons that can be extremely hard to defend if used right.  The season looks a lot brighter if you could expect a similar game plan for the rest of the season, unfortunately, I do not have that confidence yet.  This week it’s the defense that looked questionable (at best) for most of the game. It is somewhat explainable, but still concerning.  Indiana has one of the nation’s fastest offenses, and the Wolverines were simply not ready for the up-tempo attack all game. Luckily they were able to come away with 2 interceptions that kept the comfortable lead in place.

While I still think Devin Gardner can be a good pocket passer, he can be elite when used out of the gun consistently.  When defenses have to worry about his legs, as well as his arm, weaknesses are exposed and exploited much easier. Indiana looked confused trying to defend Michigan all game. Some of that had to do with their absolute awful talent, but some has to be credited to the offensive game plan and execution.  Indiana seemed content to double team Funchess after his two 100+ yard receiving days, but this meant that they left Gallon open in space on most plays.  Even as he topped triple digits in the first quarter he was left alone, and it continued when the numbers topped 200 and 300.  The offensive line made some major changes, again, but it is hard to glean any information from it because of the opposition.  It seems like they are more comfortable zone blocking and running out of the shotgun, though. Toussaint actually had holes to get up field, and Devin shredded the Hoosiers time and again. It was interesting to see Kalis brought in as a 6^th offensive lineman in big sets instead of A.J. Williams.  This new formation should be much more successful. A week after wanting Al Borges to be left in Happy Valley, he responds with an effective plan against an overmatched defense. Let’s see how he game plans for Michigan State.

The defense started the game relatively strong, recording 3 and outs on 4 of the first 5 drives. After that, Indiana was only stopped by turnovers. It looked as if the Wolverines just were not prepared for the extremely high tempo offense that the Hoosiers run. Most of the breakdowns happened when defenders weren’t in set position, or there were miscommunications. Indiana ran many short passes which prevented the Michigan pass rush to really affect Suffield or Roberson.  The Hoosiers also attacked the Wolverine linebackers in coverage with tight ends.  It became clear that this unit is very good at diagnosing plays and shooting gaps/ getting off blocks to stop running plays, but there is room for improvement in pass coverage. The secondary took the brunt of the broken plays.  A week removed from having his best game at Michigan, Raymon Taylor looked slow and not technically sound.  On top of that Countess and Stribling were both beat multiple times in this game, but most of the issues happened from confusion.  Luckily, Michigan will not face a team this up tempo the rest of the regular season (the only teams similar is Oregon and Baylor which would be a BCS bowl matchup). Of course this outlook would look much different if the secondary came away with the two missed interceptions.  Taylor had a guaranteed pick 6 that instead bounced into the receivers hands. Indiana scored on the very next play.  Stribling high pointed another ball, but instead of mistiming his jump he was out-muscled by a receiver, who then ran into the end zone. I would guess that is at least a 14 point swing, which makes the outcome decided early in the 3^rd quarter.

Top Performers:
Jeremy Gallon
Devin Gardner
Taylor Lewan
Devin Funchess
Thomas Gordon

Areas of Concern:
Raymon Taylor
Freshman cornerbacks dropping interceptions
Erik Magnuson at guard
Brendan Gibbons
Every team remaining has a much better defense

We have made it to the second bye week of the season. This time around the Wolverines will have extra time to prepare for the 2^nd major test of the season; a battle with Michigan State in East Lansing.  Michigan could possibly still be the best team in the Legends Division depending on which offense shows up.  Michigan State looks like the favorite in the division at this point.  The Wolverines can forget about the Rose Bowl (or Indianapolis) if they cannot find a way to win next Saturday.



Week 8: Indiana Preview

The Michigan football team has successfully pushed me off the blissfully optimistic ledge and into the pessimistic crevasse.  The team that is talented enough to win the Legends Division is also able to under-utilize their talent so badly they struggle to become bowl eligible. While a return to the dominant team we saw against Notre Dame could be right around the corner, the bulk of the evidence suggests this team will continue down this terrible underachieving path and stumble to a 5 loss season. So without further delay, here is my preview for tomorrow’s game against the one dimensional Indiana Hoosiers.  

Indiana Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
Michigan has one of the best run defenses in the conference, especially when they are able to play their base 4-3 defense. The Wolverines are surrendering less than 90 yards per game on an even more impressive 2.86 yards per carry.  While the defensive line struggles at getting penetration, they are able to hold their blocks to allow the inside linebackers to diagnose the play and react.  Indiana counters with a rushing attack with decent numbers, but one that has been unable to pick up consistent yards against average, or better, defenses.  Their main weapon is sophomore Tevin Coleman.  While he has averaged under 100 yards per game, he is used a lot in the passing game.  I would expect this area to be similar to the Notre Dame game.  The Hoosiers will likely gash the Michigan defense a few times, but the stats at the end of the day will be less than impressive.  Indiana’s offense runs at one of the fastest tempos in college football, and the Wolverines have struggled at times when they are not able to substitute players. I think this will play itself out more in the short passing game, but the Hoosiers could call a few hurry up runs. Advantage Michigan.

Indiana Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
This is where Indiana exposes their opponents.  They currently use a 2 pronged quarterback attack, but recently have trimmed down Tre Roberson’s snaps.  Nate Sudfield is not the most imposing quarterback, but Coach Wilson’s system makes him tough to shut down.  The Hoosiers receiving depth is filled with playmakers with different skill sets, and they use a lot of players to make life miserable for the defense. The top 3 receivers are 6’3” Cody Latimer, 6’2” Kofi Hughes, and 5’7” slot ninja Shane Wynn.  On top of that, they use the aforementioned Coleman out of the backfield, and have an NFL-type tight end with 6’6” Ted Bolser.  A standard West Coast style would be difficult to defend all of these weapons on each play, but when they try to get 80 snaps off each game it becomes nearly impossible.  Luckily Michigan has seen a lot of passing spread teams so far this season, and have done reasonably well.  Mattison’s bend-but-don’t-break Nickel scheme can be frustrating at times, but it does a good job inside the red zone. In this game, holding the Hoosiers to field goals would be considered a win. The major weakness for the Hoosiers is an under-sized and injured offensive line. Look for Frank Clark, Jake Ryan, and Jibreel Black to be in the backfield most of the day, but since Indiana will throw mainly short passes Michigan’s sacks will be limited. The key matchups will be Blake Countess against Wynn and James Ross III against Bolser.  The Hoosiers will likely accumulate 250+ yards through the air, but Michigan will be in good shape if they can limit the big plays and allow 2 offensive touchdowns. Advantage Indiana.

Michigan Rush Offense vs Indiana Rush Defense
While the rushing attach CANNOT get any worse than last week, this category will be the opponents advantage the remainder of the year. The good news here is that Indiana is one of the worst rushing defenses in the country (110^th to be exact).  The Hoosier defensive line is undersized and the linebackers are just not very talented. However, with Michigan’s offensive line problems, the Wolverine running backs wouldn’t be able to pick up 5 yards per carry against a co-ed IM team.  If Al Borges is still insistent on lining up in the I formation and running into a 9 man front, this game will be equally as frustrating as last week. As the second half of the season starts tomorrow, it is clear that Michigan is better suited to be a spread team using zone blocking schemes. The problem is that the all-knowing offensive coordinator is stubborn and doesn’t like running offenses that differ from his west coast attack.  Devin Gardner running zone options has been the most effective rushing attack Michigan has, and likely will have all season, but the coaches seem very set on limiting rush attempts from the quarterback since Gardner looked exhausted and beat up last week. If Michigan cannot run against Indiana, they have to be forced to change their strategy. The problem, though, is that the running backs will likely have some space tomorrow and the Wolverines will be able to accumulate 100+ yards between Green and Toussaint. This will give the coaches a false sense of accomplishment heading into the bye week and Michigan State game. If the Wolverines try any of that ‘tackle over’ business against the Spartans, Michigan shouldn’t even show up in East Lansing. Advantage Indiana.  

Michigan Pass Offense vs Indiana Pass Defense
This category is still Devin Gardner against his evil interception throwing twin.  The Hoosier secondary is not very good, but that doesn’t stop evil twin from turning the ball over.  As previously stated, the Indiana defensive line is undersized which will give Gardner all day in the pocket to set his feet and use the correct mechanics.  If he does this for a full game, the offense that peaked out against Notre Dame will make an appearance, but this time against a bad defense. It is not out of the question for Michigan to put up 50 points tomorrow.  The sad point is that Michigan can find a way to turn the ball over 5 times. Indiana will not be able to cover Funchess, Gallon, Dileo, and Chesson (I don’t think anyone in the conference can), so open passing lanes should be there often.  It seems inevitable that the Wolverines will give the ball to the Hoosier defense at least twice, but Gardner should be able to rack up a lot of yards when he isn’t throwing interceptions. Look for Funchess and Gallon to have a big game.  Rumors have been swirling that tackle prospect Erik Magnuson will be the LG tomorrow. While this will be a train wreck in run blocking, pass blocking should be a major improvement. Advantage Michigan.

Indiana beat Penn State by 20 for their first win over the Nittany Lions, and followed it by getting dominated by Michigan State.  The Hoosiers seem very similar to Michigan under RichRod: able to rack up a lot of yards but not points against good defenses, and not able to stop anybody. I think the Michigan secondary will come away with at least 2 more interceptions, but Indiana will still move the ball down the field with their short passing game.  The Wolverine offense is a great mystery. Wouldn’t it be great if tomorrow is the unveiling of an effective offense where the tight ends are shelved for Drew Dileo, and Michigan runs more 4 receiver sets than the under center garbage? It is so easy to picture that offense being successful, but the offensive coordinator knows better than anyone else and will likely continue to test the definition of insanity. Hurray for manball. 
Indiana: 30 Michigan: 6i (that's right, Borges is now dealing with imaginary numbers in his made up world where Michigan is able to run from under center) 

B1G Week 8 Preview

We will begin the 2^nd half of the season tomorrow for most teams, and just like the opening week of college football, this one has very few intriguing games around the B1G. In this case very few equals zero.  Ohio State is in the driver’s seat to head to Indianapolis, while the Legends Division is still a pond full of muck.  It is doubtful that this weekend does anything to change either outlook.

Purdue @ Michigan State 12:00pm
The Boilermakers are by far the worst team in the conference, and Michigan State looks to be the best in their division.  Purdue only managed to score 7 points on Nebraska, and that came in the last minute of the game. It will be a small miracle if they score more than that against the conference’s best defense. The Spartans offense did what it was supposed to do against Indiana last week, and will look to take another step forward before the showdown with Michigan.  Michigan State should dominate every aspect of this football game.

Minnesota @ Northwestern 12:00pm
The Wildcats return home with their tail between their legs. They fought a valiant battle against Ohio State 2 weeks ago, and then were taken out back and put out of their misery last week in Madison.  It is unclear just how good Northwestern is.  They have injuries at key positions, and until Mack and Colter are 100% this team looks very beatable. However, Minnesota is not the team to push Northwestern. The Gophers have a firm grasp on the 11^th best B1G team, and I doubt they move up the standings this week.  The key matchup in this game will be to see how the Wildcats stop Minnesota’s power running attack.  They have struggled the past two weeks against two of the better running offenses, and if the Gophers turn to Leidner at quarterback, Northwestern’s soft defense could be challenged. The opportunistic secondary should still be able to force 2+ turnovers though, and help the injured offense pull away from the overmatched Gophers.

Iowa @ Ohio State 3:30pm
You know it is a slow week when Iowa traveling to Columbus is the game of the week in the B1G.  Both teams had bye weeks last week, so it will be interesting to see how the first quarter is played. While I think Ohio State is a large step behind Alabama, Oregon, Clemson, Florida State, and probably most of the rest of the top 10, they are head and shoulders better than every B1G team. Iowa looked terrible to start the season, but seem to be improving as the season goes on.  The talented Buckeye defensive line should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage rendering Weisman ineffective.  The Hawkeyes will have to rely on Rudock throwing into the strength of Ohio State.  This will not go well. Ohio State should be able to run away with this game in the second half.

Wisconsin @ Illinois 8:00pm
Wisconsin took over the role of cursed B1G 2^nd best team.  It seems most of the teams I have placed there have then looked terrible (Michigan and Northwestern mainly).  I don’t think Wisconsin will follow this trend. The Badgers look to be on pace to finish 10-2 and push for an at-large BCS game (which if the cards fall right, could be the Rose Bowl for yet another time). Melvin Gordon will continue to run through, around, and over opponents. Scheelhasse could provide some challenges for the inexperienced Wisconsin secondary, but he will not be able to make enough plays to keep the Illini in this game. Both Gordon and White will go over 100 yards again.

Week 8 Upset Alert

Even if my B1G picks have struggled for much of the year, the upset alerts have been spot on.  However, this week I am less confident in these picks as I scroll through the top 25 games. Let’s hope I can keep the streak alive.

#22 Florida vs #14 Missouri
The Tigers beat an injured Georgia team last week, and because of many losses in front of them they jumped into the top 15.  I think Missouri will struggle with the Florida defense, especially with James Franklin injured for the season.  The Gator secondary is one of the best in the country, and they should be able to force Mauk into bad decisions all game.  I just think Florida is too talented for the Tigers right now.

#9 UCLA vs #13 Stanford
I don’t think I would really consider this an upset, but because of Stanford’s surprising loss last week the rankings say UCLA is better. The Cardinal returns home to face one of college football’s best surprises.  The Bruin defense is going to struggle with the pro-style attack from Stanford.  I think Gaffney and Hogan will have big games.  Also, the Cardinal’s defense is one of the best in the Pac12 and should be able to force a few turnovers from Hundley.  UCLA is a nice story this season, but they are not a top 10 team.

#20 Washington vs Arizona State
Since the last pick isn’t really an upset, I will choose one more game this week.  The Huskies are coming off of 2 disappointing losses against the best two teams in the Pac12. Now they head on the road to Tempe.  I think Keith Price and company are set for a hangover, and the Sun Devils are good enough to knock them off at home. 

Like last week there are also a few games to be interested in on Friday or Saturday.  Louisville has its second toughest test of the season after handling Rutgers with ease.  UCF is another surprise story, and Blake Bortles could scare the Cardinals defense.  I just don’t think UCF will be able to stop Bridgewater enough.  LSU travels to Oxford to take on Ole Miss.  The Rebels were the ‘experts’ team in the preseason, and especially after their win over Texas, but the last 3 weeks has not been kind.  It will be interesting to see the Ole Miss offense against the rebuild and reloaded Tiger defense. This game could be higher scoring than expected. Finally, the big matchup of the weekend sees Florida State travel to Clemson where Death Valley welcomes its second top 5 team of the season.  This game is essentially for the ACC championship.  There will be a lot of offensive talent and speed on the field for both sides, but the matchup will come down to which defense can get the critical stop.  I think the Seminole secondary will be able to force Taj Boyd into more bad decisions than the Tiger defense can do to Jameis Winston.  The quarterback that comes out on top will vault his name to the top of the Heisman hopefuls, and put his team in position for a national championship berth.

B1G Week 7 Recap

I am not sure that I write this post this week. The conference is an absolute joke when Ohio State doesn’t play. The one positive thing that I can say is that it constantly surprises me and contradicts itself.  A week after Northwestern clearly looked like the 2^nd best team in the conference, they forgot to show up in Madison.  I know I picked that upset, but I thought the Wildcats had more fight in them.

Good surprise:
Like most Michigan fans joked early, Michigan State’s offense is finding their footing just in time for the rivalry game.  The Spartans put up an impressive 42 points.  Of course you have to give recognition to their opponent, Indiana has the worst defense in the conference, but MSU struggled in the non-conference against far lesser opponents.  The Spartans had a balanced attack: passing for 235 yards and running for 238.  True Freshman Delton Williams is answering the critics who thought he should redshirt.  I don’t want to say this, but Michigan State is the clear favorite to win the Legends Division.

No matter how many times Wisconsin does this in a season, it is still impressive when they do it to one of the best B1G teams.  The Badgers ran for 286 yards on Northwestern at a 5.6 ypc clip.  Melvin Gordon continues to prove he is not only the best running back in the conference, but one of the best in the country.  I think he might be the most talented back to come through Wisconsin in a very long time, and he should be one of the few with a long NFL career in front of him.

Nebraska’s defense is still bad, but shutting out a B1G team until the final minute of the 4^th quarter is still something to be happy about.  I expected the Cornhuskers to run away with the game, but I didn’t expect the Boilermakers to be held under 10 points. Purdue was held to 216 total yards, and only 32 rushing yards. If this is a sign of defensive improvement, Nebraska might be making a return trip to Indianapolis.

Bad surprise:
I usually do not put items from the Michigan game into this post since I cover it in more detail for the recap post, but this week deserves a double mention. The combination of Al Borges’ play calling and the worst offensive line in my lifetime (possibly ever) has rendered the Michigan offense totally incapable (and unwilling) to attack the defense’s weaknesses. All of the opponents so far this year have a lot of those, yet the Wolverines are still trying to be a power running team.  If you remember from my Minnesota analysis, I was impressed that Michigan was able to use a B1G as a practice and force their will onto the Gophers.  Now it looks like that is just the Wolverine game plan.  Put 9 in the box, and don’t worry about the wide open short routes, Michigan will run right at you.  Fitz Toussaint had the one of the worst running days in the history of college football.  Yes, other backs have averaged 1 ypc or less, but the offensive coordinators are smart enough to limit the carries.  Fitz carried the ball 27 times on Saturday.  This is like trying to tunnel into the Bell Tower with a spoon when the door is unlocked.  Michigan has more talent on the roster than every team on the schedule, save Ohio State, but coaching has been the great equalizer. If something doesn’t change soon, the Wolverines will struggle to make a bowl. 

Northwestern’s entire team. A week after pushing Ohio State to the limit, they lay a complete egg in Madison.  The high powered offense scored 6 points and racked up 241 total yards (44 rushing). The Wildcats were overmatched in every facet of the game on Saturday.  Luckily they return home and welcome Minnesota this week because they need a pushover game.

Week 7 conference rankings:
1. Ohio State (no change)
2. Wisconsin (up 1)
3. Michigan State (up 2)
4. Northwestern (down 2)
5. Nebraska (up 1)
6. Penn State (up 1)
7. Indiana (up 3)
8. Michigan (down 4)
9. Iowa (no change)
10. Illinois (down 2)
11. Minnesota (no change)
12. Purdue (no change)

Week 7: Penn State Recap

I have had a few days to try to wrap my head around whatever happened Saturday night between 5pm and 9pm.  I still cannot bring myself to call it a football game.  Michigan had been playing with fire for most of the season, and they were finally burned.  At this point in the season this team can rally around the loss and start to look like the team that dominated Notre Dame or it can continue down the path of being one of the worst Michigan teams in the past 30 years.

There are so many areas of this game that were terrible. I cannot go into all of them, not because it would take the rest of the week, but because my mental state cannot handle reliving it.  The most egregious effort was that of offensive coordinator Al Borges.  This game will add to his growing list of worst called games ever. Penn State stacked the box with 8+ players all game, and Michigan continued to try to run Fitz Toussaint.  It quickly became clear that last year’s awful offensive line would be such an improvement right now that the Wolverines could be considered a contender in the Legends Division still.  I have never seen a Michigan running back finish with the stat line of 27 carries for 27 yards. In case you struggle at math that averages out to 1 yard per carry, meanwhile Wisconsin averaged 5.6 yards per carry against the division favorite. The Wolverines were clearly the better team on Saturday, but were held back by the play calling.  The Penn State defense was on its heels all second half when Devin Gardner was running zone read plays. Yet, when overtime rolled around it took until the 4^th frame to even pull him out from under center.

I mentioned it a little above, but I have never seen a worse Michigan offensive line.  Yes, I think there is still talent there, but something is not clicking. I don’t know if its chemistry with each other or inexperience, but this unit would struggle in the MAC. Then when the team is forced to play without Taylor Lewan for a half, bad things can only happen.  I actually thought Magnuson didn’t play that poorly, but you would still rather have Schofield at RT and the All-American at LT. The interior offensive line just looks absolutely lost. Both guards struggle to target anybody when pulling; the center is tipping the snap count; and they are penalty liabilities. It is pretty embarrassing that by the end of the game the Wolverines had to turn to two walk-ons up front. I really could not see a way that this line was worse than last year’s, but right now it isn’t even close.

The first half defensive play calls left little to be desired. Yes, Hackenberg only finished with just over 300 yards passing and that includes an 80 yard final drive, but Michigan seemed content to let the freshman quarterback sit in the pocket all half and find an open receiver. The Wolverine defense looked absolutely dominant for much of the 2^nd half when they brought pressure on most plays. Hackenberg looked rushed and uncomfortable.  I still have not heard the thinking behind dropping 8 into coverage on a 3^rd and long while Penn State was in the red zone. Isn’t that a time to dial up the pressure, and force a quick throw? Instead Hackenberg had time to grow a beard, and find the inevitable open receiver in the end zone. If you watched the game you noticed that Michigan didn’t go back to that play at all, even when playing prevent on the final drive. 

I am sure there are some positives to pick out from this game, but they are so vastly overshadowed by the self-inflicted stupidity that I don’t feel like a glass half full approach.

Top Performers:
Frank Clark
Jibreel Black
Jake Ryan
Raymon Taylor

Areas of Concern:
Al Borges
Al Borges
Al Borges
Al Borges
Offensive line ineptitude

Michigan finally fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, but at this point look like a team that will struggle to be bowl eligible.  Major improvements are needed for the Wolverines to even compete in the remainder of their games.  Every team they face from here on out is better than Penn State. It will be interesting (or incredibly frustrating) to see how which Michigan team comes to play against Indiana.

Week 7: Penn State Preview

It seemed like Michigan took the bye week and improved as a team.  The Wolverines made a few changes on offense, and seemed to use the Minnesota defense as a full contact practice.  I know the Gophers aren’t the best team in the conference, but I still think it is impressive when you can use a conference game to work on a new offensive strategy.  Last week might not have been the prettiest win that fans were looking for, but it was still another W. This week Michigan faces a wounded animal that might be backed into a corner. The Nittany Lions are coming off of their first loss ever to Indiana, a game that they were dominated, and return home to a season defining game.  This will be the biggest game in Beaver Stadium this year, and a win against the Wolverines could hold off a sanction-led downward spiral. 

Penn State Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
The Nittany Lions run a pro-style offense similar to the New England Patriots.  They like to use 3 receivers and a split out tight end, and a lot of times will use the short passing game as a running attack.  However, they do have a lead running back, Zach Zwinak, who is more of a fullback type like Mark Weisman.  Even though the PSU offensive line can struggle in run blocking, Zwinak is big enough to fall forward.  He will never be mistaken for DeAnthony Thomas. Michigan’s defense is disciplined and strong enough to stop this style of running back. The only reason to be cautious here is that the Penn State passing spread is similar to Notre Dame’s, and their running backs were able to be effective yet underused against the Wolverines. Advantage Michigan.

Penn State Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
Adam Hackenberg is already one of the best pocket passing quarterbacks in the conference.  Yes, he is a true freshman, and is still very mistake prone, but he can really throw the ball.  It also helps that he has one of the best receivers in the country on the other end.  This is similar to Chad Henne’s freshman year when he had Braylon Edwards on the outside. Whenever Hackenberg is pressured he will force throws to Allen Robinson.  Robinson is so good that he comes down with some of these haphazard throws.  The key for a defense is to be able to make plays on the ones that he isn’t able to snag.  The offensive line has been prone to giving up sacks, so expect Greg Mattison to dial up more pressure than he did last week.  I doubt Michigan will sit back in the soft zone all game like against Notre Dame, especially if Jake Ryan plays a few snaps. It seems like Allen Robinson is a lock to get 150 yards, but the goal should be to keep him under 200 and potentially force some turnovers when Hackenberg throws an ill-advised pass his direction.  I am very interested to see Blake Countess match up against Robinson.  Advantage Penn State.

Michigan Rush Offense vs Penn State Rush Defense
Michigan rolled out a new offensive line formation against Minnesota where Taylor Lewan becomes the best blocking tight end that college football has ever seen.  This formation was effective against the under-sized Gopher front 7.  Al Borges will look to deploy this unbalanced line against an even more undersized unit.  It is unlikely that this strategy will work against future opponents, but they can cross the bridge in a few weeks. I think Derrick Green and Fitz Toussaint will get a lot of opportunities to run early in this game. Michigan will look for the run to open up passing lanes for their shiny toy that is prone to self-inflicted injury.  I doubt this game will be one where the Wolverines have impressive yards per carry, but they will likely run the ball over 30 times with running backs alone.  If Penn State sells out to stop this rushing attack, look for Devin to be unleashed on the ground more than last week as well.  Advantage Michigan.

Michigan Pass Offense vs Penn State Pass Defense
This area is still an unknown.  If Devin Gardner returns to Notre Dame form this game could be over by halftime.  The problem is that he has struggled on the road in his short career, and looks to be rebuilding a visibly shaken confidence. Penn State isn’t a huge blitzing team, but look for the Nittany Lions to dial up pressure from different levels to try to force Gardner into quick decisions where his mechanics break down.  If the new offensive line can hold up against this pressure, Devin should have no problems dissecting a Penn State secondary that is in shambles. Jeremy Gallon and Devin Funchess are the two best receivers that the Nittany Lions have faced this season.  This section would be a lot easier knowing how many turnovers Michigan will finish with.  Just based on the throwing talent of Gardner and the receiving talent of Gallon, Funchess, Dileo, Chesson, and company this is a huge advantage in Michigan’s favor. However, the offensive line struggled in some pass protection formations against Minnesota, and Gardner has shown that he can turn the ball over in more creative ways than his predecessor. Advantage Michigan (crossing my fingers)

Vegas has this line at 2.5 points in Michigan’s favor. They must know something that I don’t because that seems like an easy bet for the Wolverines. If Michigan is -1 or better in the turnover department this game shouldn’t be within single digits.  At this point in the season my expectations have lessened since the Notre Dame outcome, but I still think this team has potential to compete for a Legends Division title. If Gardner can build from his first zero turnover performance last week, Michigan will win this game. I am just going to choose to believe that he cannot perform anywhere close to as poorly as he did against UConn. He is just too talented to continue turning the ball over with that much regularity.  Michigan 31 Penn State 20.  

B1G Week 7 Preview

Week 7 of the college football season is upon us.  It is amazing how quickly it goes.  The B1G standings are shaping up like most predicted: Ohio State in the Leaders and a mess in the Legends.  Although it is another light week around the conference, there is one matchup that will have a major impact on who plays in Indianapolis.

Indiana @ Michigan State 12:00pm
The Spartans had their most impressive offensive showing last week in Iowa City.  They should be expected to take another step forward this week at home against the Hoosiers. Indiana likely has the worst defense in the conference, and the Spartans should feel more comfortable in East Lansing.  Indiana also has one of the best offenses in the conference, and should test Michigan State.  At this point the Spartans have one of the best defenses in the nation. It will be interesting to see how they hold up against the high tempo passing attack of the Hoosiers. MSU defensive backs are known for their aggressive play, and Notre Dame was able to use that against the Spartans in their earlier matchup.  Look for Coach Wilson to try a similar game plan.  I don’t think Indiana can hold many teams under 20 points, especially on the road, but can Michigan State hold Nate Sudfield and company under 25?  The Spartans can reveal themselves as another Legends contender tomorrow.

Nebraska @ Purdue 12:00pm
Nebraska has one of the best offenses in the conference, even without Taylor Martinez.  Purdue is one of the worst teams in the nation.  I know the Husker defense makes more teams look like champions, but it shouldn’t matter in this one. The Boilers might score 28, but Nebraska should push 50.

Northwestern @ Wisconsin 3:30pm
This game was covered some in the upset alert post, so you know that I think Wisconsin will win this game. Northwestern is coming off of their toughest game of the season, and it was a game that they fully expected to win.  The Wildcats pushed Ohio State to the brink, but ultimately did not have enough playmakers on defense hold on for the win.  Even though their Rose Bowl hopes have not been eliminated yet, I still think Northwestern will have a hangover in this game.  The Wildcats are good enough to beat most conference teams when they don’t play their best, but the Badgers are not one of them.  The Northwestern defense really struggled to contain Carlos Hyde last week, and they will likely have even more problems against James White and Melvin Gordon.  I doubt the Badgers will even have to go to the air much to pick up first downs, which is their weakness.  I think Wisconsin will average at least 6 yards per carry for the game, and that will keep the high powered Northwestern offense off the field enough to give the Badgers a huge win at home.

Week 7 Upset Alert

Don't worry, your favorite blogger made it back from Japan.  The week went very quickly, and I was too busy to keep up with my week 6 blog duties. In case you were wondering about my trip, it was incredible and I hope I have the opportunity to go back in the future. Anyways, back to the regularly scheduled program.  Week 7 offers some interesting matchups that could result in an upset, so lets take a look.

#12 Oklahoma vs Texas
I will continue to ride this Sooner train until they get knocked out of the unbeaten ranks. I just do not think Oklahoma is very good this year, but either is the entire Big 12. Unfortunately, Texas is one of the few teams that has the athletes to pull off this upset.  It seems like the Longhorns are adjusting reasonably well to the new defensive coordinator.  I picked Notre Dame to beat Oklahoma, and if not for Tommy Rees’ complete mental lapse in the game the Irish likely would have won.  I don’t think David Ash will have as many horrible turnovers, which should allow Texas to score enough points at home to scare the Sooners.

#19 Northwestern vs Wisconsin
I think the Wildcats are easily the second best team in the B1G, but they are coming off of a very tough loss to Ohio State when they had the lead late into the 3^rd quarter. Now they have to head on the road, and Wisconsin is likely the third best team in the conference right now. The Wildcats could not contain the Buckeye rushing attack, and the Badgers have one of the best in the country.  I think James White and Melvin Gordon will have huge days on the ground. 

There are also a couple of games to keep an eye on.  Louisville plays Rutgers tonight, and this shapes up to be the Cardinals toughest opponent this season.  If they have aspirations of playing in the national championship game, UL will need to have an impressive showing tonight.  The Scarlett Knights are a team with an actual pulse that could make things difficult on Teddy Bridgewater.  Also, Oregon plays Washington.  After the Huskies pushed Stanford to the brink last weekend, it looks like they are a legitimate team.  In order for them to play in the Pac12 championship game they will have to beat Oregon, which is no small task.  I think the Washington defense can slow down the Ducks more than any team Oregon has played this season.  The problem is that likely means Oregon still scored 40 points. I don’t think Keith Price can put up those kind of numbers against the most impressive team so far this season.

B1G Week 5 Recap

Konichiwa! Greeting from Japan.  My training slowed down a bit, and I finally have some free time tonight.  I was not able to watch any of the games this past weekend, but I was able to follow most of gamecast.

Good surprise:
The Illinois offense continues to put up some impressive numbers. The Illini could actually push for a bowl game, a year after the trainwreck of Coach Beckman's first season. Nathan Scheelhasse has to be front runner for B1G Comeback POY.

Iowa's defense. I really thought Minnesota was going to be able to run the ball effectively against the Hawkeyes. Instead, the Gophers were only able to muster a measley 30 yards on 27 attempts. Iowa looks like a team that is hitting its stride right now, and I put them as favorites against Michigan State this weekend.

Bad surprise:
My how quickly the expectations for the Boilermakers continue to drop. Only 2 weeks removed from pushing Notre Dame, Purdue has surrended 96 points to Wisconsin and the feard Northern Illinois Huskies. Yes NIU is one of the best MAC teams, but there is no way they should be hanging 55 points on any B1G team.  It is going to be a long year in West Lafayette.

Minnesota offense. I know the Gophers played a terrible non-conference schedule to get to 4-0, but they at least looked impressive while playing inferior talent (something that cannot be said of Michigan). I guess when a team is as one dimensional as Minnesota, most B1G teams should be able to hold the Gophers under 14 points. However, Iowa just manhandled Coach Kill's team in Minneapolis.

Week 3 conference rankings:
1. Ohio State (no change)
2. Northwestern (no change)
3. Wisconsin (no change)
4. Michigan (no change)
5. Michigan State (no change)
6. Nebraska (no change)
7. Penn State (no change)
8. Illinois (up 1)
9. Iowa (up 2)
10. Indiana (no change)
11. Minnesota (down 2)
12. Purdue (no change)