Everyone knows the significance of this week’s game against Notre Dame, and
everyone knows that if Michigan is going to have a special season the Wolverines
will need to scratch out a win tomorrow night.
Although last week against CMU was encouraging, tomorrow will be a very
good litmus test for Team 134.
Notre Dame Rush Offense vs Michigan Rush Defense
The final rushing stats for the Chips were very poor, but how much of that
was due to losing Tipton so early?
I
would like to say that the Wolverines rush defense will continue their dominance
throughout the season, but at this point we just don’t know.
We did see that Coach Mattison likes to play
in a Nickel package, and opted to remove the nose tackle for much of the game
to replace him with another defensive back.
It will be interesting to see how well the lesser beefed up defensive
line can hold up against a decent offensive line.
Notre Dame returns three players up front,
including both linemen on the left side.
The area to attack will be on the opposite side, and it will be
important to try to get one of the Wolverine pass rushers matched up
there.
Notre Dame lost their top two running
backs from last season, and replaces them with smaller; spread type scat backs
(think wanabe Venric Mark’s).
I am
worried that the Nickel package will make the Maize and Blue too small up front
to be able to withstand the push from a real sized offensive line.
If these quick guys get into the second level
of the defense bad things will happen for Michigan.
If the Wolverines can hold up in the nickel
it means extremely good things for this game and moving forward.
If they are forced into the standard 4-3 for
the majority of the game, Michigan will stop the Irish rushing attack but
likely at the expense of a passing explosion.
I would have to imagine Coach Hoke and company are more afraid of Rees
throwing the ball than McDaniel or Carlisle breaking out for a huge day. The inside
linebackers will be asked to do a lot in this game, and I think they shine in
this game.
Advantage Michigan.
Notre Dame Pass Offense vs Michigan Pass Defense
Tommy Rees returns under center for the Fighting Irish, and if you recall he
has put up some big numbers against the Wolverines in his career.
He is also the only quarterback in the
history of college football to experience a night game at the Big House.
Rees is coming off of a career day against
Temple where he threw for 346 yards and 3 TDs.
While Notre Dame does not have the big name receivers of past years,
they have a very formidable corps. Darvaris Daniels seems to be a viable option
as a downfield threat, with TJ Jones being an open field nightmare underneath. Also,
the Irish have another huge tight end that could test Ross in coverage.
It will be very interesting to see if the
Wolverines match up in a man-to-man coverage for most of the night, or fall
back into a zone.
As I mentioned above,
Michigan will be looking to attack Rees from the right side of the offensive
line, and I think Jibreel Black or Frank Clark could have some success on the
inside.
If the Wolverine pass rush has
improved as much as we hope, tomorrow night will be a very good early season
test.
The biggest factor in this area
will be the return of two safeties for the Maize and Blue.
The worst play from the defense last week
came from both safety positions. While it looks like Jarrod Wilson has improved
dramatically, Courtney Avery will be able to provide reliable experience if
needed.
On the other side, I think
Thomas Gordon is one of the better B1G safeties, so him returning to the lineup
will be a very good thing.
Over the
years Tommy Rees has not responded will to pressure, so if the Wolverine front
four can collapse the pocket look for number 11 to turn the ball over multiple
times.
If Rees is allowed to sit back in
the pocket for chunks of time, look for him to pick apart the young Michigan secondary.
As much as I want to believe the pass rush
has taken a major jump forward, I think the Irish have the upper hand
here.
Advantage Notre Dame.
Michigan Rush Offense vs Notre Dame Rush Defense
In case you didn’t know, Notre Dame has 3 of the biggest defensive linemen on
the planet.
The smallest one is around
Quinton Washington’s size, with the largest being roughly the size of a small planet.
I think this matchup will be the biggest factor
to the outcome of the game.
The
Wolverine offensive line looked extremely good against Central, and will get their
stiffest test of the season tomorrow night.
I think the rushing game plan will be to attack the edges of the Notre
Dame defense to make the scary face-masked wooly mammoths run and to test the
weakest part of the defense, linebackers. Michigan was able to get Lewan
involved in the rushing attack last week for the first time in 2 years, and
whenever you can get a legitimate NFL left tackle as a lead blocker good things
will happen.
I will be interested to see
how Glasgow-Miller-Kalis handle Louis Nix, and if Al Borges breaks out any
power pulls to the left (Kalis pulling to Lewan’s side).
They did very little of it against the Chips
last weekend, but I have to guess that it will be a significant part of the
game plan tomorrow night.
Temple was
able to average almost 5 ypc last week against this vaunted front seven, so if Michigan
can get the edge look for similar numbers.
This also might force the Irish out of their standard 3-4 defense, just
to get more bodies at the point of attack.
I think Fitz and company will have a big day on the ground, and a Wolverine
back will go over 100 yards.
Advantage
Michigan.
Michigan Pass Offense vs Notre Dame Pass Defense
Devin Gardner had a very pedestrian season opener.
He made a few marvelous passes while mixing
in a few bad decisions.
I thought the
offensive line was very good in pass protection last week, and they will need
to be again against the Irish.
Stephon
Tuitt is another mountain defensive end, but even at 322 pounds he pass rushing
freak.
Hopefully, Taylor Lewan will be
matched up with him most of the night, and if so this threat will be somewhat
neutralized.
If you remember my preview
from last year, it mentioned how inexperienced the Notre Dame secondary
was.
It never really was tested last
season because Denard was on his back or throwing directly to Manti Te’o all
game, but you might also have noticed that the receivers were constantly wide
open on the outside.
The Irish return
the same cornerbacks from a year ago, and I still think they are shaky.
Jeremy Gallon should be consistently open when
he is on the field.
Look for Brian Kelly
to double cover him for most of the game, and force Devin to find a second
weapon.
There are some options here for
Michigan.
Since the linebackers looked
lost last weekend against Temple, Funchess could have a huge game.
If he is struggling to get off the line, then
Chesson and Dileo should also be able to get separation more times than
not.
The real test here is will Al
Borges change up his game plan somewhat and move towards quicker underneath
throws (slants, screens, TE curls) to help the young offensive line against the
pass rush, or keep the motto: chicks dig the long ball.
This strategy could result in some huge plays
if the offensive line can hold up, but if not Devin could be sandwiched between
700 pounds of leprechaun.
I would like
to think that Borges would be willing to go with the strategy that has the best
chance of success, but as we have seen before that hasn’t always been the case
(2011 MSU, 2011 Iowa, 2012 OSU).
Advantage Push.
As much as I would love the Wolverines to wipe the field with Notre Dame on
their last trip to Ann Arbor, I think this game has the makings of another
close one.
The Irish have more proven
talent on the field, but Michigan has the most potential.
If the Wolverines can win the battle in the
trenches, they will be in very good shape to win.
However, Notre Dame has the edge on paper.
Turnovers and special teams will have a big
role in the outcome.
I think Devin
Gardner will have at least one very stupid mistake, but Tommy Rees will have one
more.
Also, if Michigan can cover any
punts well, the Wolverines will have a decided advantage on special teams.
Look for Dennis Norfleet to have a big
game.
Michigan 31 – Notre Dame 21.